• 详情 比特币、资产多元化与中国金融市场
    This research explores the effects of adding bitcoin to an optimal portfolio (naïve, long-only, unconstrained and semi-constrained) of by relying on mean-CVaR approach in Chinese market. Then backtesting to compare the performance of portfolios with and without bitcoin for each scenario is performed. Results show significant but weak correlations between various asset classes and bitcoin, implying a more mature financial profile of bitcoin in China compared to that in the west. Backtesting results show that the effect of adding bitcoin to optimal portfolios is not consistent over the entire out-of-sample period. The naïve and the long-only strategy improved the risk reward ratio up until the late 2013 price-crash with no significant advantages thereafter. Shorting strategies on the other hand, with or without leverage, fail to produce more efficient portfolios when bitcoin is added, and this is consistent over the entire out-of-sample period. The results also show that semi-annual rebalancing amplifies the advantages of adding bitcoin to most portfolios except for the semi-constrained portfolio, although the weights analysis show significant shifts in weights which might not represent a feasible strategy in realistic scenarios.
  • 详情 2015 中国股市激荡中的信息泄露——基于降息降准的自然实验
    本文以 2014 年底至 2015 年八次降息降准事件为自然实验,针对 A 股市场全部 2821 支股票, 研究股市震荡中的信息泄露和市场反应。实证表明,降息降准信息发布前一天,开盘价收益率、每笔 成交量和知情交易比例显著提高,波动率和成交笔数显著下降;信息不对称程度较高以及降息降准直 接利好的银行、证券、房地产等行业的股票,其知情交易比例显著提高。进一步,降息降准信息发布 前一天,每笔大单的规模和总大单数量显著提高,大单与小单的知情交易比例都显著高于正常日,且 小单的知情交易比例在最后交易时段逐渐与大单接近。本文结果意味着此次股市激荡中宏观调控信息 的泄露是普遍存在的,知情的机构投资者更早得知泄露信息并用于买卖相关股票获得收益,并在统计 意义下先向其他机构投资者,然后是向散户扩散。
  • 详情 指数效应存在吗?——来自“沪深 300”断点回归的证据
    学界关于指数效应研究一直争论不断,尤其我国沪深 300 指数,文献中结论几乎完全相反,本文表明这些结论差异可能源自传统回归方法的缺陷。针对 Beneish 和 Whaley(1996)称作“标普游戏”(套利)的指数效应,本文利用断点回归实验,验证了沪深 300 指数效应,并通过双重差分(DID)和异常收益率分布检验验证实验结果稳健性。沪深 300 指数成分每年按照市值排名高低调入调出指数,提供难得自然实验环境。排名断点的处置效应显著,调入股票相对其对照组(未调入指数的股票)出现了大约 15%的正异常收益率,调出股票宣告日前相对于其对照组(保留在指数的股票)产生大约 10%的超幅下跌,并在宣告日后第 6 天发生反转回复到宣告前水平,但是显著性不足,说明我国沪深 300 指数效应不具有对称性。
  • 详情 Bitcoin, Portfolio Diversification and Chinese Financial Markets
    This research explores the effects of adding bitcoin to an optimal portfolio (naïve, long-only, unconstrained and semi-constrained) of by relying on mean-CVaR approach in Chinese market. Then backtesting to compare the performance of portfolios with and without bitcoin for each scenario is performed. Results show significant but weak correlations between various asset classes and bitcoin, implying a more mature financial profile of bitcoin in China compared to that in the west. Backtesting results show that the effect of adding bitcoin to optimal portfolios is not consistent over the entire out-of-sample period. The naïve and the long-only strategy improved the risk reward ratio up until the late 2013 price-crash with no significant advantages thereafter. Shorting strategies on the other hand, with or without leverage, fail to produce more efficient portfolios when bitcoin is added, and this is consistent over the entire out-of-sample period. The results also show that semi-annual rebalancing amplifies the advantages of adding bitcoin to most portfolios except for the semi-constrained portfolio, although the weights analysis show significant shifts in weights which might not represent a feasible strategy in realistic scenarios.
  • 详情 Open Banking: Credit Market Competition When Borrowers Own the Data
    Open banking facilitates data sharing consented by customers who generate the data, with a regulatory goal of promoting competition between traditional banks and challenger fintech entrants. We study lending market competition when sharing banks’ customer data enables better borrower screening or targeting by fintech lenders. Open banking could make the entire financial industry better off yet leave all borrowers worse off, even if borrowers could choose whether to share their data. We highlight the importance of equilibrium credit quality inference from borrowers’ endogenous sign-up decisions. When data sharing triggers privacy concerns by facilitating exploitative targeted loans, the equilibrium sign-up population can grow with the degree of privacy concerns.
  • 详情 Finding Anomalies in China
    Using data on stock trading and accounting information from 2000 to 2018, we construct 426 anomalies and propose the multiple hurdle of 2.85 in the Chinese A-share stock market. With single sort portfolio analysis on value-weighted returns, we find that 98 (27) anomalies have significant raw returns at the 5% level with absolute t-value larger than 1.96 (2.85). After risk adjustment using the Liu, Stambaugh and Yuan (2019) three-factor model, 16 (2) anomalies have significant alphas for single (multiple) tests, about half of which are based on liquidity information, while alphas for accounting anomalies are less significant. After regressing on the four-factor model with turnover, the liquidity anomalies become insignificant. We construct the composite anomalies, and find that the majority can pass the multiple test hurdle.
  • 详情 市场失灵还是政府失灵? ——基于主成分分析的金融漏损实证研究
    金融漏损现象在中国经济转轨过程中长期存在,其引致的金融风险逐步累积,一旦引发系统性风险势必阻滞中国经济金融改革与发展的步伐。文章基于2001-2012年间金融漏损的相关指标,利用主成分分析法验证了市场失灵与政府失灵视角下金融漏损的形成机理。研究表明,金融漏损的市场失灵因素主要是信贷资源错配下的低效率运营,政府的持续扩张行为是政府失灵引致金融漏损的主要原因;市场失灵引致的金融漏损不断下降,政府失灵下的金融漏损却不断上升。消除金融漏损应打破金融垄断,增强市场机制作用,并解决政府激励与约束的非均衡性,使政府恪守“守夜人”职能。
  • 详情 股权分置改革与IPO前后盈余管理行为研究
    IPO过程中是否存在向上盈余管理是研究者和政策制定者持久关注的话题,动机和机会是影响IPO过程盈余管理行为的重要因素,本文以股权分置改革为契机检验了制度变迁所导致的决策主体利益函数变化对IPO过程盈余管理行为的影响。研究发现,由于IPO过程严苛的法律监管和高额的法律风险,IPO前向上盈余管理幅度显著低于IPO后的盈余管理幅度,上述现象在股权分置改革之后更为明显,而这种现象主要存在于获得实质性流通权的民营上市公司当中。这意味着,股权分置改革改变了大股东的盈余管理动机和盈余管理行为模型,未来监管的重点应该后置,需要特别关注最终控制人股票限售期期满之时的会计质量。
  • 详情 通胀、通缩与经济增长
    货币长期中性的论断一直在理论上占主导地位,但现实中,通胀、通缩对经济增长与发展的影响却无法忽视。西方经济学认为货币是中性的,但中央银行的认知水平、制定和实施货币政策的专业技能、以及货币制度在共同影响经济绩效。
  • 详情 Some New Thoughts on Measurement of Money Demand
    To tackle the problems in the measurement of money demand, this paper holds that: money demand could be divided into different parts including basic demands, other demands, reasonable demands and so forth; relatively accurate measurement could be made for basic demand and reasonable demand through the application of big data technology; in-depth studies on the basic functions, mutual relations and quantitative methods of the above demands would be beneficial for more accurate measurement of money demand.