• 详情 后金融危机时代美欧金融形势简析和启示
    后金融危机时代,美国的金融霸权未被金融危机动摇,突出表现在美国仍然掌控货币霸权、金融机构霸权、国际金融话语霸权等,且美国继续滥用其金融霸权地位。而欧洲则深陷欧债危机,其主要原因包括欧洲国家自身经济失调、欧元区内部的不平等地位和国际评级机构的不公正评级等。我国应根据美欧金融形势和经验教训,坚持稳中求进,深入实施扩大内需,转变经济结构,把握发展实体经济这一坚实基础,稳健发展虚拟经济,合理制定与调整我国金融业发展战略,加强我国金融业实力和地位,注意对国内金融创新的监督,构建我国金融业全面风险管理体系。
  • 详情 机构投资者作用于上市公司盈余管理的角色研究——基于盈余管理不同动机的视角?
    关于机构投资者作用于上市公司盈余管理中所扮演的角色,始终没得到统一的结论。本文选择沪深两市2004-2007年有机构持股的上市公司为样本,考察不同类型机构在作用于上市公司不同动机盈余管理中的角色。研究结果表明:(1)我国机构投资者作用于上市公司盈余管理中表现出监督者角色。(2)短线型机构作用于公司盈余管理表现出的监督者角色。(3)当公司管理层存在行业业绩压力和避亏压力时,短线型机构表现出结盟者角色;当公司管理层不存在行业业绩压力和避亏压力时,短线型机构表现出监督者角色。(4)长线型机构作用于公司盈余管理的监督者角色没有得到体现。也就是说,在我国机构投资者作为精明投资者,能洞悉管理层的盈余管理动机,发挥机构股东的监管作用已逐步呈现,但还很微弱,因此鼓励公司持股的机构化是我们下一步发展机构投资者的重点。
  • 详情 货币供给、流通速度与物价水平——基于非线性 STVAR模型对我国数据的实证研究
    近年来,我国物价水平不断攀升,通胀压力不断加大。什么原因导致我国物价水平上升成为学术界关注的热点。本文从货币供给和货币流通速度角度,采用平滑过渡向量自回归模型,利用1996年以来的月度数据,研究了货币与物价的非线性关系。实证结论表明:货币供给对物价的影响依赖于经济所处的状态(高通胀和低通胀两种不同的状态);货币流通速度的变化会导致物价同方向变动,且不依赖于经济状态;应对物价变化,我国货币政策存在一定的时滞。
  • 详情 购买力平价与人民币均衡汇率
    购买力平价是衡量均衡汇率的最为重要的方法之一,依此方法对人民币低估程度的估计也曾经是最为严重的。本文就如何适当运用购买力平价来度量均衡汇率的问题做了系统性的文献回顾和评论。结合近期的相关研究,我们指出了在一些有关于人民币均衡汇率的讨论中所存在的需要商榷乃至于错误的地方。本文认为:相对于基本均衡汇率等方法,扩展型的购买力平价方法更适合于度量人民币均衡汇率水平;世界银行2005年购买力平价数据显著降低了关于人民币低估程度的估计,根本性改变了人民币汇率问题争议的形势,而有关世行数据本身被低估的观点未必成立;最后,当前人民币汇率并不存在严重的低估。
  • 详情 An Empirical Assessment of Empirical Corporate Finance
    We empirically evaluate 20 prominent contributions to a broad range of areas in the empirical corporate finance literature. We assemble the necessary data and then apply a single, simple econometric method, the connected-groups approach of Abowd, Karmarz, and Margolis (1999), to appraise the extent to which prevailing empirical specifications explain variation of the dependent variable, differ in composition of fit arising from various classes of independent variables, and exhibit resistance to omitted variable bias and other endogeneity problems. In particular, we identify and estimate the role of observed and unobserved firm- and manager-specific characteristics in determining primary features of corporate governance, financial policy, payout policy, investment policy, and performance. Observed firm characteristics do best in explaining market leverage and CEO pay level and worst for takeover defenses and outcomes. Observed manager characteristics have relatively high power to explain CEO contract design and low power for firm focus and investment policy. Estimated specifications without firm and manager fixed effects do poorly in explaining variation in CEO duality, corporate control variables, and capital expenditures, and best in explaining executive pay level, board size, market leverage, corporate cash holdings, and firm risk. Including manager and firm fixed effects, along with firm and manager observables, delivers the best fit for dividend payout, the propensity to adopt antitakeover defenses, firm risk, board size, and firm focus. In terms of source, unobserved manager attributes deliver a high proportion of explained variation in the dependent variable for executive wealth-performance sensitivity, board independence, board size, and sensitivity of expected executive compensation to firm risk. In contrast, unobserved firm attributes provide a high proportion of variation explained for dividend payout, antitakeover defenses, book and market leverage, and corporate cash holdings. In part, these results suggest where empiricists could look for better proxies for what current theory identifies as important and where theorists could focus in building new models that encompass economic forces not contained in existing models. Finally, we assess the relevance of omitted variables and endogeneity for conventional empirical designs in the various subfields. Including manager and firm fixed effects significantly alters inference on primary explanatory variables in 17 of the 20 representative subfield specifications.
  • 详情 我国医保管理理念和机制创新研究
    加强和创新社会管理是我国进入新时期新阶段面临的迫切课题。医保管理作为社会管理中的一个重点和难点领域,在现阶段还存在不少突出矛盾和问题。本文以医疗保障领域的社会化管理创新为出发点,通过对当前医保管理中“散、乱、假”等症结的实证剖析,指出医保管理缺乏创新,在管理理念和管理手段上落后,不适应现实需要的发展。为此,本文建议应着眼于社会管理创新,树立“大医保”的管理理念,通过运用现代信息技术手段,努力构造“大医保”的管理架构和信息网络平台,探索以“大医保”管理路径解决现代医保管理中的诸多难题。
  • 详情 Productivity, Restructuring, and the Gains from Takeovers
    Little is known about the underlying sources of gains from takeovers. Using plant-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, I show that one source of gains is increased productivity of capital and labor in target plants. In particular, acquirers significantly reduce investments, wages, and employment in target plants, though output is unchanged relative to comparable plants. Acquirers also aggressively shut down target plants, especially those that are inefficient. Moreover, these changes help explain the merging firms' announcement returns. The total announcement returns to the combined firm are driven by improvements in target firm's productivity, rather than cutbacks in wages and employment. Also, targets with greater post-takeover productivity improvements receive higher offer premiums from acquirers. These results provide some of the first empirical evidence on the direct relation between productivity, labor, and stock returns in the context of takeovers.
  • 详情 私募股权、天使资本与创业板市场IPO抑价
    论文对我国创业板市场的上市前股权投资者进行了界定和区分,然后采用手工整理数据考察了私募股权资本和天使资本对创业板公司的投资行为,重点研究了两种资本对IPO抑价率的不同影响。研究发现,目前我国的私募股权资本往往投资于高估值行业且入股的企业资质较差,不能发挥认证作用,导致其持股的公司有更高的IPO抑价率。相反,天使资本投资往往投资于资质较好的企业,并且愿意投资负债率较高的企业,其持股对IPO抑价率并无显著影响。在此基础上,本文对创业企业审慎选择融资来源、私募股权投资机构进行理性投资、以及监管部门加强行业引导等方面提出了建议。
  • 详情 市场化进程、产权性质与绿色信贷
    本文基于中国资本市场的经验数据,并考虑了产权性质和市场化程度差异的影响,深入研究了我国商业银行贷款决策与环境信息披露的关系。结果发现,环保企业能获取更优惠的银行信贷,即绿色信贷是客观存在的,但其效果仅表现在环境信息披露不过度及市场化进程高的地区的情形下。上述研究发现对于构建和完善我国商业银行的绿色信贷机制建设,实现其可持续发展具有重要意义。
  • 详情 盈余波动与盈余可预测性——基于中国资本市场的经验证据
    本文运用盈余自回归模型,通过盈余持续性和预测误差检验是否盈余波动能改善盈余可预测性,并结合盈余波动的成因和组成进一步分析盈余波动对盈余可预测性的影响,研究发现盈余波动性主要源于应计项目的波动,盈余的持续性和盈余可预测性的准确性主要取决于盈余和应计项目的波动性,长期的预测检验也得出相同的结论,而控制观察当期盈余的情况下,盈余和应计项目的波动性的与盈余可预测性持续性和盈余可预测性的准确性之间的负向关系也存在,但组间差异性有所降低,此外盈余与应计的观察期的期望值的分组检验结果表明应计项目的期望值含有盈余可预测性信息更多