• 详情 中国股市二级市场交易基金收益与交易成本的关系研究
    本文以中国二级市场上交易的封闭式基金、交易所开放式指数基金(ETF)、和上市型开放式基金(LOF)为例,借助微观市场结构的模型,分析基金自身的交易成本和收益之间的关系。本文证明2006年7月的基金改制事件提高了基金市场有效性。具体表现在这些基金的交易成本与相应时段内代表公司经营能力的累积净值和市场回报间存在显著的正相关关系。但与经典金融理论不同的是,我国二级市场交易基金(主要是封闭式基金)的交易成本和业绩波动率呈负相关的关系。本文认为这说明在我国封闭式基金市场存在“炒作”现象。最后,本文基于实证结果给出了一些政策上的建议。
  • 详情 金融管制、外部治理环境和企业债务工具的选择
    我国企业债务融资是决定向银行贷款还是发行企业债券?其选择到底受何种因素影响,是企业自身特性决定、还是适应债务契约治理机制的需要,抑或是受制于我国现实的法律环境和金融管制的约束结果?本文以1998-2009年之间我国非金融企业新增的3053笔债券和银行贷款为研究样本,运用PROBIT计量方法,从企业特征、债务契约属性、外部制度环境和金融管制四个方面来分析企业是趋向于选择企业债券还是银行贷款,解释了我国企业债券融资选择的内部治理机制和外部治理环境。
  • 详情 企业捐赠动机考察:自利,还是利他?(博士生论坛征文)
    近年来对企业捐赠行为的动机考察越来越成为人们感兴趣的课题。其中,企业基于自利动机而进行捐赠一直是经济学家愿意理解和接受,并一再来证实的观点;而对于这其中是否存在利他动机持有争议,也缺乏实证证据。本文基于全国12个城市1268家企业的调查数据,运用Probit和Tobit模型,在控制住自利动机影响企业捐赠的渠道后,估计了利他动机对企业捐赠行为的影响。估计结果表明,我们有显著的证据可以认为企业的捐赠行为背后有利他动机在起作用。
  • 详情 汇率稳定性目标与最优货币政策:理论与实证
    经济全球化为世界各国带来了难得的机遇,直接促进了各国经济不同程度的快速发展,但各国的不一致性政策导致了今天全球经济潜伏着巨大危机,汇率的稳定性将成为各国政府治理本国经济和分享经济全球化成果的重要手段。本文建立了小型开放经济模型,采用贝叶斯分析技术,研究了在Ramsey 最优均衡下,汇率的稳定性目标机制与最优货币政策之间关系。分析表明:汇率的波动与宏观经济波动之间的关系依赖于货币政策所选择的基于无时间视角的政策体制,在Ramsey 均衡下,选择最优政策机制能够保持低通胀和汇率的波动,但是产出波动幅度会增大,而在汇率稳定性货币政策机制下,通胀,产出和汇率的波动都比其他政策机制要小;在实证数据上,我们对比了最优政策,汇率稳定,价格稳定以及实际数据拟合的宏观经济体系,我们发现汇率稳定性货币政策机制是更加趋近于最优政策,汇率稳定性目标是货币政策确保经济稳定性和社会福利最大化的重要目标。同时,本文利用开放经济汇率与一国货币政策的传导机制特性,分析得出开放经济下的最优通货膨胀率为零边界的一个狭小的区域,此时的货币政策最有利于执行汇率的稳定性目标。
  • 详情 上市公司财务预警系统的研究和实证分析
    基于粗糙集理论,本文有效地分析和处理了财务危机预警指标体系中不明确和不完 备的信息,同时利用贝叶斯正则化算法克服了标准神经网络BP 算法存在的易形成局部最小、 收敛速度很慢和过度训练等问题,改进了BP 神经网络泛化能力。在此基础上,本文建立了 一个基于粗糙集和神经网络的财务危机预警模型,通过应用分析,此模型预测精度非常高, 而且不需要对变量作任何特殊假设,能够很好的对企业财务状况进行预测。
  • 详情 中国上市公司特征与证券分析师跟进
    证券分析师作为证券市场的信息中介,对证券市场的发展起着非常重要的 作用。本文研究样本选取2006-2008年上市公司和证券分析师相关数据,分析牛 熊市场转换中的分析师的跟进行为。实证研究发现,分析师对股票的跟进行为与 上市公司特征关系密切。对于上市公司财务特征,分析师们关注成长能力和盈利 能力,不关注偿债能力和收入质量。上市公司的成长性越好,分析师跟进人数越 多;上市公司的盈利能力越好,则分析师跟进人数越多。对于上市公司的其他特 征,研究发现公司规模越大、基金持股比例越高、上市时间越短、公司不确定性低 (停牌次数少),则分析师跟进人数越多。并且由于市场由牛转熊的变化导致分 析师对公司财务特征关注程度发生了变化。
  • 详情 Fixed Investment, Liquidity and Access to Capital Market: Evidence from IPO SMEs in China
    This article examines the liquidity-investment relation of Chinese SMEs in comparison to large firms, and specifically focuses on the exogenous IPO event to observe how the responses of firm investment to cash flow change subsequent to the IPO. We find that the sensitivity of fixed investment to cash flow varies with firm size, and the over-reliance on internal funds by SMEs has reduced more prominently after the IPO than their larger counterparts, providing new evidence that liquidity constraints of investment are not constant in the same firm but shift along the life cycle. Our results strongly suggest that other financial resources to cover the cash flow shortfalls resulting from timing differences between the operating and investment cycles need to be considered in the examined relation and previous studies may have underestimated the impact of liquidity constraints on firm investment.
  • 详情 Doing Good with or without Being Known? The Impact of Media Coverage of Corporate Social Performance on Corporate Financial Performance
    Based on a sample of financial holding companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, we examine the impact of media coverage of corporate social performance on corporate financial performance. Our findings are as follows. First, information about a firm’s social actions provided by the media is more relevant than provided by the financial holding company (FHC) itself, and the quantity of news articles about positive social activities of FHCs is positively correlated with financial performance; however, strikingly, that of news articles about FHCs’ negative social activities is also positively correlated with financial performance. In addition, we find that news articles about FHCs’ positive social activities for shareholders will trigger a positive evaluation by shareholders; however, rather interestingly, news articles about FHCs’ positive (negative) social activities for employees will trigger a negative (positive) evaluation by shareholders. But if the news articles about FHCs’ positive social activities for employees are initiated by the media, rather than by the company itself, they will trigger a positive evaluation by shareholders. Therefore, the evidence suggests that “doing good” can be expected to be “doing well” if the positive CSP information is provided by the media, rather than by the company itself.
  • 详情 Political Connection, Financing Frictions, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Chinese Listed Family Firms
    Using a sample of Chinese family firms from 2000 to 2007, we investigate whether the political connection of the family firms will help them to reduce the frictions they face in external financing in a relationship-based economy. We find that political connectedness of family firms could reduce their investment-cash flow sensitivity. More interestingly, this political connectedness effect exists only in financially constrained family firms. However, from governance dimension, we cannot find any significant variation of the political connection effect on the sensitivity of investment to cash flow. We argue that these evidences are consistent with the firm’s underinvestment arising from the asymmetric information problems, and are inconsistent with the firm’s overinvestment arising from the free-cash-flow problems.
  • 详情 终极控制权、法制环境与上市公司现金持有
    在股权集中、投资者法律保护弱的中国市场上,上市公司高额持有现金水平是否出于控股股东侵占需要?若答案肯定的话法制环境改善能否保护中小投资者利益?本文基于2004-2008年上市公司数据,通过采用面板数据方法中的固定效应模型,对这一问题进行研究,结果表明:代表控股股东侵占的控股股东控制权与现金流权分离度越大,公司现金持有比例越高,而在投资者法律保护好的情况下,分离度对现金持有比例的影响减小。进一步研究表明,控制权与现金流权分离度对现金持有与公司价值产生显著为负的影响,投资者法律保护对现金持有与公司价值产生正的影响。本文的研究进一步从公司治理角度揭示了中国企业高额现金持有现象产生机制及市场影响,同时也从现金持有角度提供了控股股东侵占的新证据。