内容提要　东欧国家银行改革的经验表明,外资银行进入能普遍提高东道国银行业的效率。但是,外资银行发挥积极作用亦取决于一定条件:东道国经济发展水平、银行业规模及发育程度、监管水平、银行业的改革路径和引资方式。本文在综述东欧国家银行业改革经验的基础上,提出中国银行业改革的7个命题,并用中国24家银行1999～2006年间的数据构建模型进行检验,最后得出结论:短期内外资银行进入会导致东道国银行业利润水平下降、风险管理水平上升,在中国的背景下可以认定这是外资银行积极作用的发挥;外资银行机构数量的增加和持股比重的上升都能刺激中国银行业效率的改进,但是外资银行持股比重的影响更具普遍性;不同类型银行对外资银行进入的反应存在差异,国有商业银行反应比较迟钝,而股份制和城市商业银行反应比较迅速。

This paper investigates the volatility and turnover effects of underlying stocks associated with the introduction of warrants in China’s warrants market. We find that in a derivative market where noise traders dominate, the introduction of warrants increases the underlying stock’s volatility, which cannot be attributed to better information revelation. We also find that speculation on derivatives has a spillover effect on the underlying security. Higher volatility and turnover rate of underlying stocks are associated with higher warrants turnover, larger warrants price deviation from theoretical prices, and longer time to maturity of warrants. Additionally, we find that stocks with covered warrants have higher volatility and turnover than those with only equity warrants. Our paper provides new evidence for the impact of derivatives on underlying assets in the emerging market context.

不确定性决策的研究具有重大的理论和实践意义。阿莱悖论和行为金融的实验结果是不确定性决策中“非期望效用理论”发展的基础。为了检验阿莱悖论和行为金融权重函数的性质，本文在广泛的群体组织了经济实验，结果表明阿莱悖论和行为金融学中决策权重函数的性质在并不是普遍成立的。本文的实验结果与其他学者在海外华人相关实验结果相印证，对以阿莱悖论和行为金融权重函数为基础的理论体系构成了根本性的质疑，为新的不确定性决策理论发展提供了实验依据。

国有股权对公司绩效的影响，不应简单以公司业绩水平高低评价，公司的风险特 征同样重要。本文就经济危机时期，国有股权与公司的风险缓冲能力进行实证检验，发现在 经济危机时期，相对于非国有公司，受到适度经济冲击的国有公司具有更大的风险缓冲能力。 这种作用主要是因为，相对于非国有公司，受到适度经济冲击的国有公司不仅没有承担沉重 的员工负担具有融资便利优势，而且具有融资便利优势，从而国有股权可以提高受到适度冲 击公司的风险缓冲能力。本文为进一步认识国有股权与公司绩效的关系提供了新的视角和证 据。

国外相关研究表明，资产清算价值和公司债务融资决策之间具有紧密的关系。本文以 1998至2006年间我国沪深两市A股市场的上市公司为研究对象，运用多元线性回归模型，对 清算价值在公司债务融资决策中的作用机制进行了实证研究。结果表明，以资产再配置性、 资产专用性、竞争对手财务能力以及资产有形性来测量的清算价值与企业资本结构和债务期 限结构显著相关，高的清算价值能够提高企业的债务融资能力。此外，清算价值对资本结构 和债务期限结构的作用关系受到行业发展阶段和市场化程度的影响。如果企业所在行业处于 成长期以及企业所在地的市场化程度较高，上述关系将更为显著。本文的研究结论对企业进 行债务融资决策和银行进行贷款决策有重要的启示。

在新资本协议的高级内部评级法框架下，资本要求取决于商业银行的风险水平。 然而，监管当局与商业银行存在严重的信息不对称，为追求利益最大化的商业银行存在隐瞒 其真实风险状况的动机，而监管当局审查和验证银行风险状况的能力也是有限的，这可能导 致银行持有的资本过少，从而危及银行体系的稳定。杠杆率限制可以降低有限负债下的看跌 期权价值，提高银行净值，从而提高资本监管的有效性。次贷危机的教训也要求我国在实施 高级内部评级法过程中应重视初始杠杆率。

This paper examines the effects of the agency costs on firm performance in 156 Chinese publicly listed companies with private ultimate owners between 2002 and 2007. The ultimate owners’ agency costs are measured by the divergence between cash flow rights and control rights. Agency costs are shown to negatively and significantly affect firm performance, as measured by Tobin’s Q. A major contribution of this paper is to identify connected party transactions as a channel through which such agency costs exert negative impact firm performance. Evidence from the public record of law violations of those firms lends further support to the “tunneling” view on the connected party transactions. The paper also shows that the larger the divergence, the less likely that firm managers will implement value-increasing industrial diversification. The last finding remains a puzzle.

The increasingly competitive environment in the financial services market has resulted in pressure to develop and utilize alternative delivery channels. A growing phenomenon in financial services is the use of the Internet as a channel for financial services in many countries and there is wide agreement that this channel will have a significant impact on the banking system. The vast opportunities brought by the Internet to the banking industry have therefore attracted much attention from researchers. This study aims to analyze the role, adoption and barriers of Internet banking in the banking system in China. Using a quantitative approach, this study surveyed a sample of senior manager in three major cities namely, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu. Using a number of statistical analyses including analysis including T-test, ANOVA, Factor Analysis and Chi Square Test, The study finds that the main role of Internet banking in China is to Increase to Market Share. Another important finding is to Increase profitability. Maintain Competitive Edge and Improve customer service are the main reasons for the adoption of Internet banking by Chinese banks. However, it appears that Security risk constitutes the main barrier to Internet banking.

This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of the Copper Futures contracts using daily settlement prices for the period from 23 July, 2008 to 3 July, 2009. Different econometric models are used to estimate the optimal hedging ratios of Copper Futures on the Shanghai Futures Market. The hedging performance is firstly analyzed by the OLS regression model, the Error Correction model (ECM) and the Bivariate-GARCH Model. Then the Minimum-Variance Hedge Strategy is adopted to evaluate the statistical models. Secondly this research uses a non-parametrical method, the Genetic Algorithms to predict the hedging ratio based on the historical data. Then finally whether the Genetic Programming could produce better hedging parameters than the standard hedging model will be revealed.

本文构造人民币隔夜回购利率互换，并计算了三个月期SHIBOR与人民币隔夜回购利率互换的价差（SHIBOR-OIS价差），定量刻画出我国的银行体系风险溢价水平，并分析了美国金融危机以及我国货币政策对SHIBOR-OIS价差的影响。分析表明美国金融危机爆发后，SHIBOR-OIS价差出现了明显的扩大，但不如美元LIBOR-OIS价差的变化强烈。在不同货币政策下，两种价差所反映的风险有所不同。我国货币政策的调整对SHIBOR-OIS价差有显著影响。本文最后以三个月期央票发行利率对比分析人民币OIS，证实了SHIBOR-OIS价差构建的合理性。