• 详情 Stock Market Feedback Trading, Fat-tail Distribution
    Feedback is the trading strategy of irrational investors. Positive feedback traders' buying or selling behavior is decided by the stock price of the preceding period. On the presence of positive feedback trading, stock market returns show characteristics which are different from these assumed in the classical financial theory, and thus make the stock market fluctuate extraordinarily. This essay establishes a model with the participation of positive feedback trader and rational trader,. The irrational traders adopt feedback trading strategy. Based on the model, we used Monte Carlo simulation method to produce a time series. We computed the kurtosis, tail-index and the autocorrelation coefficient of the time series and compared with the relevant quantity of Shanghai stock market index time series. It turned out that our model can provide a powerful expression to the fat-tail and autocorrelation characteristics of stock market return.
  • 详情 国际金融危机对加强我国金融监管的启示
    金融危机使各国政府愈发认识到金融监管的重要性。本文分析了本轮金融危机的成因和对中国经济金融所产生的影响,提出了强化地方金融办的管理和监管职能等若干加强金融监管的建议。
  • 详情 交织网络格局中的商业银行贷款竞争与信贷市场效率
    借贷关系是以还本付息为前提的贷出。信贷市场的效率应体现在银行体系是否实现了储蓄的投资转化功能、支持了实体经济的发展。但是,信息不对称和对违约者惩罚不力等原因降低了信贷市场效率。本文研究了处于“横向—纵向”交织网络格局中银行间的贷款竞争,在理论上提供了一个判断和评价信贷市场效率的全新框架和视角。通过对比三种代表性银行体制,我们证明了,与社会最优相比,纯策略寡头和严格寡头信贷市场的均衡都存在较大的非效率性。在具有完善社会风险防范机制的强寡头均衡下,信贷市场效率将趋于社会最优水平。本文的结论是,在我国现有银行体制下,提高信贷市场效率的关键并不在于标准分析方法下某些技术指标的短期改进,而在于将银行置于具体制度环境下分析其效率低下的原因并探索提高这一效率的根本途径。
  • 详情 Empirical Analysis of CVaR Portfolio Model with Capital:Structure Factor and Transaction Cost
    The ignorance of market friction causes the invalid portfolio investment, and whether the arrangement of capital structure is reasonable will influence the income of funding cost, effective utilization of non-selfowned and funding risk level. Therefore, portfolio model under the assumption of complete market lacks of practically instructiveness. Capital structure factor and transaction cost do influence the portfolio decision in the capital market. On the basis of capital structure factor and transaction cost during the process of investment, this article improve the portfolio model that CVaR control proposed by Rockafeller and Uryasev, built a CVaR portfolio model with capital structure factor and transaction cost. Empirical studies indicates that the changes of capital structure factor and transaction cost lead to the movement of efficient frontier on CVaR portfolio model and the changes of upper and lower limit.
  • 详情 管理者过度自信与企业债务期限结构——基于中国上市公司的实证分析
    本文分别以我国上市公司总经理的年龄、任职时间、学历、教育背景以及两职兼任情况作为管理者过度自信的替代变量,从流动性风险和资产匹配两方面来具体考察我国上市公司管理者的过度自信行为对公司债务期限结构的影响,研究结果表明:总经理的年龄越低,任职时间越短,学历越低,总经理拥有经管类教育背景以及当总经理同时兼任董事长时,总经理的过度自信行为越强,因此公司债务期限结构与负债比率和资产结构之间的相关性越弱。本文的研究意义不仅在于丰富和拓展了国内外的相关研究,而且对于上市公司的风险管理政策也具有一定的启示作用。
  • 详情 股权分置改革、控制权私人收益及其影响因素——基于面板数据的分析
    控制权私人收益是指被控股股东所独占,不能被其他人分享的收益,是控制性股东从公司转移资产的行为。文章主要是在对国外有关控制权私人收益相关文献研究的基础上,探索我国上市公司控制权私人收益产生的机理,并运用计量模型,对股权分置改革对我国控制权私人收益的影响进行实证分析。运用计量模型来评价股权分置改革对控制权私人收益的政策效应。研究了改革对不同行业、不同业绩、不同有形资产比、不同资产负债率、不同规模公司的控制权私人收益的影响。
  • 详情 The Interaction between Internal and External Corporate Governance Mechanisms: Evidence from Bank Loan Litigation in China
    We examine empirically whether internal corporate governance mechanisms play a role in reducing the probability of being sued by lending banks due to bank loan default and the market reaction to the announcement of bank loan litigation. Using bank loan litigation events in Chinese financial markets, our results show that companies with better internal corporate governance mechanisms are associated with a lower probability of being sued. We also find a significant negative market reaction to the announcement of a bank loan filing while insignificant market reaction to the announcement of bank loan litigation verdict. Moreover, we test whether internal corporate governance mechanisms can play a role in mitigating the effect of market reactions. Our findings indicate that there is no evidence of internal corporate governance in mitigating this effect. Our paper suggests that internal corporate governance mechanisms are important in preventing the trigger of external governance mechanisms (litigation) but do not play any role once external governance (litigation) takes over.
  • 详情 外资银行进入对东道国银行绩效影响研究
    关于外资银行进入与东道国银行绩效影响的关系,学术界存在不同的看法。外资银行进入程度的增加对东道国银行绩效的提升是否产生了预期的促进效应,这种效应的发生又与哪些因素密切相关?本文对50个发展中国家1995~2006年654家银行的面板数据进行了实证检验,研究发现:发展中国家外资银行进入程度的增加有利于东道国银行绩效的提升;不同东道国由于经济发展水平、金融发展水平和金融监管水平等特定市场环境存在差异对绩效提升作用的发挥有显著影响。
  • 详情 外资银行进入中国市场的竞争效应研究(1995-2006)
    文章运用Panzar-Rosse模型计算了1995-2006年间中国银行业的H统计值及每年的Ht值,并以Ht值为被解释变量,以市场集中度(CR4)、外资银行机构数、外资银行资产、市场不稳定程度(IIt)为解释变量,分析外资银行进入对中国银行业市场竞争程度的影响,结果表明:1995-2006年期间中国银行业市场结构是垄断竞争型市场结构;外资银行进入强化了中国银行业市场竞争程度,并且机构数的影响更为显著;市场集中度与市场竞争程度负相关,验证了SCP假说;市场稳定程度与市场竞争程度不相关。
  • 详情 中国商业银行表外业务扩散影响因素实证研究
    基于2001~2007年中国商业银行表外业务的相关数据,本文利用Logistic扩散模型分析了表外业务作为一项金融创新活动在其扩散过程中的影响因素,尤其是现行监管制度——资本充足率监管压力对表外业务扩散的影响。研究结果表明,表外业务作为一项金融创新活动随着时间不断增加,呈现不断扩大的趋势;表外业务规模并没有随着银行规模的扩大而增加,不存在规模经济效应;资本充足率监管并未获得有效的监管结果。