我国“九五”期间真实经济增长率是个富有争议的问题。大部分中国经济学家认为官方的数据比较准确地反映了那一时期经济运行的实际状况，有的经济学家甚至称之为中国经济增长“奇迹”，但也有少数国内外经济学家认为，“九五”期间我国名义经济增长率被高估了。本文采用官方公布的实物产量数据，从工业产品产量增长率、实物投资增长率和高能耗产品单产能耗是否下降这几个方面分析了是否存在中国经济增长“奇迹”。本文结论如下：一、“九五”期间我国工业产品产量增长率远远低于工业产值增长率，特别是1998年；二、实物投资增长率远远低于名义投资增长率；三、“九五”时期我国能源利用率几乎没有提高；四、实际上，不存在现有经济理论尚无法解释的经济增长“奇迹”，但是，这种“奇迹”的出现并非政府有关部门有意为之。

有鉴于利益相关者的相关问题已成为现行公司治理框架中不可或缺的一部分，本文设置利益相关者治理评价指标考察中国上市公司利益相关者参与公司治理和利益相关者权益的保护状况并得出利益相关者治理指数。进一步的实证研究表明，利益相关者治理指数对每股收益(EPS)、净资产收益率(ROE)、股本扩张能力(NAPS)均有显著的正面影响，这表明上市公司良好的利益相关者治理机制和较高的利益相关者治理水平有助于增强公司的盈利能力，进而提升包括股本扩张能力在内的企业成长与发展潜力。同时，利益相关者治理机制所涉及的5个方面对企业业绩和企业价值也存在重要影响。因此，建议在公司治理中考虑利益相关者的权益，鼓励利益相关者适当而有效地参与公司治理和管理。

利用中国市场上剔除资产重组效应后的上市公司民营化样本，本文考察了所有权性质变更对上市公司绩效的影响。本文发现：（1）民营化后上市公司的绩效得到改善；（2）剔除资产重组效应后，与未发生控制权转让的配对国有上市公司样本以及国有企业间控制权转让样本相比，民营化能更有效地改善上市公司绩效；（3）民营化前后上市公司在经理人激励方面没有显著差别，民营化样本与未发生控制权转让的配对国有上市公司样本以及国有企业间控制权转让样本在经理人激励方面也没有显著差别。本文的证据支持了由Shleifer and Vishny（1994）所提出的政治观点。

为了探讨资产价格对我国货币政策中的信息传导功能，本文运用VAR模型考察了以股票价格、房地产价格为代表的金融与实物资产价格对我国产出和通货膨胀的影响。通过产出缺口对股价与房价的VAR脉冲响应分析，发现房价指数和股价指数对产出缺口均产生影响。而通货膨胀对股票价格产生较为明显的正向影响，对真实房价缺口却产生明显的负向响应。通过利用VAR模型构建的FCI指数和CPI指数的比较，发现含括了资产价格的FCI能有效的领先于CPI，FCI是CPI的格兰杰原因。最后把所构建的FCI纳入到泰勒规则中分析发现修正后的泰勒规则中的利率对通胀反应微弱，对产出缺口反应不足，但对FCI的反应却非常显著。

This paper investigates information transmission and price discovery mechanisms in informationally linked and non-synchronous trading markets within the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity framework. Using daily data for copper and soybean contracts from the Chinese futures and spot markets, as well as the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures markets, we show that there are asymmetric lead-lag relationships between any two of the three markets. We also find that the volatilities spill over from one market to another for both cases of copper and soybeans. However, the copper and soybean markets exhibit quite different patterns of information transmission. Further, we highlight the remarkable role of the Chinese futures markets in the price formation process, though the LME/CBOT futures markets are the main driving force in price discovery.

基于金融时间序列的实际分布的尾部明显更厚，而峰度则更高的特征，我们可以运用在不同的分布假定下的GARCH模型的VaR计算方法来对市场的风险进行分析。本文利用GARCH族模型以国际原油期货的日收益率数据分别在t-分布和广义误差分布(GED)条件下来度量原油期货的在险价值VaR。在验证了多个模型和二种分布组合之后，得出了GARCH(1,1)-t分布模型对原油期货能较好的拟合和反映出国际原油期货收益率的风险特征性。

This study analyzes the effect of social pressures on CEO compensation focusing on social interactions within 60 miles of the firm. Social premiums in CEO pay are in excess of what can be explained by firm performance and characteristics, corporate governance, and local economic variables. Using the S&P 500 companies during 1994-2005, we show that the average social premium in a social circle with 31 CEOs (the 75th percentile of social circles) is $1.29 million higher than that in a circle with six CEOs (the 25th percentile). Golfing, sharing directors, and comparing mansions are likely avenues of social interactions.

This paper investigates market effects associated with China Security Index 300 (CSI 300) reconstitutions with sample period from April 2005 to Feb 2008. Several findings are listed as followings: Firstly, cumulative abnormal returns for added stocks increase slightly after announcements, while the returns for removed stocks decrease significantly though reverse immediately after index reconstitutions. Considering the whole event period, prices for deletions do not fall dramatically; it’s consistent with asymmetric change of investors’ awareness proposed by H Chen et al (2004). Secondly, both the results of cumulative abnormal returns and volume ratios do not provide evidence to support price pressure hypothesis or index membership hypothesis. We attribute those results to few funds tracking stock indices exactly with the same components and weights as which in the underlying indices in emerging markets, i.e., enhanced index funds are more familiar. Thirdly, the percentage of the additions’ (or deletions’) shares held by funds is not affected obviously by CSI 300 reconstitutions. Finally, we examine index change effects due to IPO that frequently occur in emerging markets, and find that additions witness a full reversal after the first trading day.

By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the logperiodic power law (LPPL) model has been developed as a flexible tool to detect bubbles. The LPPL model considers the faster-than-exponential (power law with finite-time singularity) increase in asset prices decorated by accelerating oscillations as the main diagnostic of bubbles. It embodies a positive feedback loop of higher return anticipations competing with negative feedback spirals of crash expectations. We use the LPPL model in one of its incarnations to analyze two bubbles and subsequent market crashes in two important indexes in the Chinese stock markets between May 2005 and July 2009. Both the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index (US ticker symbol SSEC) and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component index (SZSC) exhibited such behavior in two distinct time periods: 1) from mid-2005, bursting in October 2007 and 2) from November 2008, bursting in the beginning of August 2009. We successfully predicted time windows for both crashes in advance [24, 1] with the same methods used to successfully predict the peak in mid-2006 of the US housing bubble [37] and the peak in July 2008 of the global oil bubble [26]. The more recent bubble in the Chinese indexes was detected and its end or change of regime was predicted independently by two groups with similar results, showing that the model has been well-documented and can be replicated by industrial practitioners. Here we present more detailed analysis of the individual Chinese index predictions and of the methods used to make and test them. We complement the detection of log-periodic behavior with Lomb spectral analysis of detrended residuals and (H, q)-derivative of logarithmic indexes for both bubbles. We perform unit-root tests on the residuals from the log-periodic power law model to confirm the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck property of bounded residuals, in agreement with the consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles [16].

In the last decade hundreds of companies from emerging markets have listed and issued their shares on American and European stock markets. Brazil, Russia, India, and China have been the main origins of issuers, and stock exchanges in the US, UK, and Luxembourg the main destinations involved in the process. These four home and three host markets are the empirical focus of our paper. We present an economic geography perspective on foreign listing, grounded in the geography of finance and the world city network approaches, emphasising the sub-national origins of foreign listed firms, the role of intermediaries, and competition for foreign listings. Our analysis, based on comprehensive up-to-date datasets on foreign listings and foreign equity issues, shows that issuers listing their shares abroad are predominantly large firms, coming from relatively high-growth, internationally oriented sectors, and headquartered overwhelmingly in the leading economic centres of their home countries. Key intermediaries in the foreign listing process are the global investment banks, operating out of the very same centres where the cross-listing firms and the host stock exchanges are located. Competition between host stock markets is affected significantly by the direct and indirect costs of foreign listing, including disclosure and corporate governance requirements. Both host markets and intermediaries exhibit a significant degree of specialisation in terms of the size, sector, and geographical origin of the issuers they serve. The market for foreign listing differs significantly between the BRIC countries, with the Chinese market offering the greatest potential, but facing considerable uncertainty.