• 详情 What Explains the Low Profitability of Chinese Banks?
    This paper analyzes empirically what explains the low profitability of Chinese banks for the period 1997-2004. We find that better capitalized banks tend to be more profitable. The same is true for banks with a relatively larger share of deposits and for more X-efficient banks. In addition, a less concentrated banking system increases bank profitability, which basically reflects that the four state-owned commercial banks - China’s largest banks - have been the main drag for system’s profitability. We find the same negative influence for China’s development banks (so called Policy Banks), which are fully state-owned. Instead, more market oriented banks, such as joint-stock commercial banks, tend to be more profitable, which again points to the influence of government intervention in explaining bank performance in China. These findings should not come as a surprise for a banking system which has long been functioning as a mechanism for transferring huge savings to meet public policy goals.
  • 详情 The Impact of a Common Currency on East Asian Production Networks and China's Exports Behavior
    Vertical fragmentation of product value chain across borders is the driving force of growing economic interdependency in East Asia. A common currency, not flexible exchange rates between national currencies, would reduce flexibility in relative prices within East Asia. Its impact would be far greater for exports that have stronger production network linkage. In order to test the hypothesis, the paper estimates the effect of a common currency on China's processing and ordinary exports separately. The distinction is necessary because the processing exports, unlike the ordinary exports, are produced along the regional production networks, with final stages of assembly and exporting being increasingly concentrated in China. The short-run dynamics indicate that the effect on China's processing exports is more than double the corresponding effect on China's ordinary exports. The long-run effect on the processing exports of intra-regional RER flexibility, which is otherwise the lack of a regional currency, is almost nine times as large as the long-run effect of a unilateral RMB appreciation. By contrast, the corresponding long-run effect is statistically insignificant for the case of ordinary exports that are produced primarily by using local inputs. The long-run coefficient of this intra-regional RER flexibility implies that the actual volume of processing exports is 20 percent below the potential. The magnitudes of these effects are consistent with the hypothesis that a common currency would further integrate East Asian production networks and promote regional economic integration.
  • 详情 Country of Origin Effects in Capital Structure Decisions: Evidence from Foreign Direct Investments in China
    We investigate the role of managers' country of origin in leverage decisions using data on foreign joint ventures in China. By focusing on foreign joint ventures in a single country, we are able to hold constant the financing environment, eliminate the effects of formal institutions in the foreign managers' home country, and consequently reveal the effects of informal institutions such as national culture on corporate finance decisions. Using cultural values of embeddedness, mastery, and uncertainty avoidance to explain country of origin effects, we find that national culture has significant explanatory power in the financial leverage decisions of foreign joint ventures in China. Country-level variation is evident in capital structure and appears to work through choices of firm characteristics, industry affiliation, ownership structure, and region of investment.
  • 详情 Government Incentives, Top Management Turnover and Accounting Information: Evidence from China's Soes
    This paper investigates control mechanism and accounting information used for control mechanism, shaped by government incentives for business. Using a sample of China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) from 2001 to 2005, it finds that the likelihood of top management turnover in China's SOEs, which is an important aspect of corporate control mechanism, is inversely associated with two types of accounting information of firm performance, firm-specific accounting performance and relative accounting performance, which is induced by the interests of Chinese government for the economic performance and political competition. Further, this paper finds that relative accounting performance, especially regional relative accounting performance, receives more weight in turnover decisions if a SOE is a local monopolistic firm or in local monopoly, because relative performance measure could offer a relatively simple benchmark for local government to assess manager's quality and provide stronger incentive scheme in China's political environment. By seeking deeper understanding into government incentives, the findings imply that induced by government incentives, effective corporate governance which is based on distinguished characteristics of accounting information exists in an economy highly involved by government.
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  • 详情 预算软约束与高等学校财务困境
    本文在D-M框架下建立了一个高等学校预算软约束模型并分析了其中的因果逻辑。本文认为,导致目前我国高校集体性财务困境的根本原因在于存在着预算软约束问题。根据本文的模型可以得到一些硬化高校预算约束的对策,这些对策涉及到高校领导人的任用与考核体系,高校规模与合并问题以及高校的贷款自主权。另外,本文的结论反驳了现在流行的高校投入不足说,以及利用高校合并解决财务困境的不合理想法。
  • 详情 基于信息融合的商业银行信用风险评估模型研究
    用风险是我国商业银行运营过程中的主要风险,因此加强信用风险的有效评估 至关重要。本文借鉴多传感器信息融合综合评价的优势,建立了基于BP神经网络、支持向量 机和DS证据理论基础上的信用风险评估模型。通过采用国内某商业银行的数据,利用本模 型,BP网络和支持向量机三者做了相应的验证,研究结果表明,该模型相对传统的BP网络和 支持向量机的评估模型,能得出较优的评估结果。本文的研究结论对于丰富我国商业银行的 信用风险评估体系和加强风险管理具有重要意义。
  • 详情 银行间支付流与同业拆借利率之关系的实证研究
    本文研究了我国大额支付系统中银行间支付流与银行间同业拆借利率之间的关 系。实证结果表明大额支付系统中银行间支付流的变化水平对银行间同业拆借利率的条件均 值和条件方差都有显著的影响。随着法定存款准备金率的不断调高,银行间支付流与银行间 同业拆借利率之间的相关关系逐渐增强。
  • 详情 银行利差多维度量及影响因素:基于中国银行业1998一2006年经验证据
    合理的银行利差有利于商业银行创新业务的发展和效率的提升,本文从多维视角 度量了银行利差,拓宽了传统意义_L银行存贷利差的含义,考虑了中间业务影响的会计利差和 反映市场势力的勒纳指数的边际利差,并对中国商业银行1998一2006年的利差进行了实证分 析。结果表明,我国银行利差基本处于一个适中且偏高的水平,并呈现上升态势,这不利于商 业银行业务结构的调整。对影响银行利差的主要因素分析表明,银行的风险管理对银行利差 影响不显著,国有银行机会成本与银行利差存在显著的正相关关系,宏观经济变量对银行利差 有一定的影响,中间业务和银行利差之间不具有因果关系。