摘要：一国经常项目赤字只有获得足够资金支持才能维持，基于此本文将美国经常项目赤字可持续性问题转化为能否稳定地获得外源性融资的问题。文章从供给和需求角度探讨了美国与东亚之间特殊融资安排的形成与稳定性问题，并用两种方法估计了美国经常项目赤字可持续的必要条件及调整的时间。本文认为国际金融体系下美元霸权和东亚国家内需不足导致了东亚国家的资金供给，美国消费主导型经济导致经常项目赤字进而引致资金的需求，供求之间能达到短期均衡。但是由于制度安排的缺陷，这种特殊的融资安排长期必然走向崩溃。届时美国赤字调整不可避免，中国应采取措施方法赤字调整带来的风险。 Abstract: The current account deficits are sustainable only if it was adequately financed. On this basis, this paper has translated the problem concerning the sustainability of current account deficits into the question of stability of outside financing. Then, our paper discuss the special financing arrangement between East Asia and US, hence after, we further discuss the necessary conditions for the “sustainability” and time to adjust deficits. This paper justified that: East Asia becomes the supplier of financing because of the dollar hegemony under the absent of international financing system and lack of inner demand, US become the demander of financing for sake of the demand-led growth. The demand and supply will reach an equilibrium in short run, but the special financing arrangement dooms to be collapsed for short institutional arrangements, the US has to adjust its currents account deficits passively.

转轨国家经济中的银企关系问题是关系到国有企业和银行系统健康发展和改革成败的关键问题。银企关系中的道德风险问题历来是银企关系中的主要问题之一。在微观经济中，产生这种道德风险的根源在于政府与银行的借贷政策的预算软约束，以及缺乏竞争性的、集权的金融制度。事实上，在这一体制条件下，银行居于债权人位置却不能对企业的道德风险行为实行有效地控制，进而恶化企业的治理结构。不仅如此，银企关系中的道德风险还破坏了经济运行的微观基础，导致银行危机和经济动荡。

为了分析散户投资者的投资行为和业绩,本文采用案例研究的方法,研究了文献中很少涉及的一种对象------散户投资者的投资日记.我们选取了某报1999年1月9日至4月30日连载的个体投资者投资手记中的投资方案作为样本,构造了3种追随型投资策略,研究了样本时间段内这些策略的获利可能性.结果发现,盲目追随所得收益基本与大盘走势持平；动量追随所得的收益较盲目追随高；谨慎追随则有更高的超过大盘走势的正的累计收益率，但是仍不及原投资策略的累计收益。然后，我们对这3种追随策略和原投资策略的周收益率进行了符号检验和正态记分检验，得出在样本时间段内各种策略在5%的统计显著性水平上不能战胜市场的结论。最后我们探讨了我们的研究对有效市场假说和行为金融学的意义和本文研究方法改进的思路与扩展的方向.

本文综述近期（1995-2005）面板协整检验理论。面板协整分析理论最初是基于结构稳定的分析，主要研究成果可以划分为部门独立的协整检验和部门依赖协整检验。同时部门独立的协整检验又是从微观面板即同质面板协整检验发展到异质面板协整检验。最新发展则集中于结构突变的面板整检验。未来研究至少集中于（1）面板协整检验统计量渐近分布。（2）混合面板的协整检验理论。（3）多参数协整检验理论。面板协整检验为实证提供良好的理论工具，主要集中于购买力平价理论等领域。然而在国内相关理论研究比较少见，实证方面的分析也应进一步拓展。

中央银行独立性问题在现代宏观经济研究特别是货币政策研究中备受关注，其与宏观经济指标的相互作用很大程度上决定着货币政策的运行效果。就此问题，本文首先介绍了西方学者对央行独立性的不同定义及研究的理论基础，随后从理论和实证两个角度分析中央银行独立性同宏观经济运行之间的关系，最后本文得出如下结论：中央银行独立性与通货膨胀之间的关系比较明确，与其他变量之间的关系仍不能明确界定；中央银行独立性的提升确实能有效降低通货膨胀率，但是抑制通货膨胀不能单独地成为支持中央银行独立性的理论基础；是否提高中央银行独立性应该结合其与物价、就业、经济增长的关系； The Central Bank Independent (CBI) issue has drawn more attention in macroeconomic research, especially is in the monetary policy research .To a large extent, it’s interaction with macroeconomic goals (price, economic growth, employment) mutually plays a remarkable role on the effect of monetary policy. On this question, this article first introduced the western scholar’s different definition on central bank independent and the theoretical basis of it. Then, we analyses the relationship between Central Bank independence and macroscopic economic performance theoretical and empirical angle. Finally we drawn draws the following conclusions: The relations Between the Central Bank independence and the inflation is quite explicit, but we are not clear about it’s relation with other variables such as growth、employment、deficits; Increasing Central Bank independent can effectively reduce the inflation rate, but “cut down” inflation cannot alone become the support for Central Bank independence; Whether or not to enhances the Central Bank independence should take in account it’s relations with the price, the employment, the economy grows; we should care about the “stationary” of variable when dealing with time-series data, otherwise the conclusion maybe less in accuracy and credibility;

Traditional hedge of bond duration and convexity are incorrect. We derive correct hedge ratios by capturing the neglected volatility linkage between Treasury futures and cheapest-to-deliver Treasuries. Our hedge-ratio equations specify each hedge instrument’s contribution against short-term spot and forward rate exposures. Our numerical analysis indicates that traditional hedge substantially overhedges. The relative overhedge is especially large in hedging high coupon bond when the hedge horizon is long, the term structure is steep, or the cheapest-to-deliver is a high coupon Treasury. The results are robust to various maturity of bond and the cheapest-to-deliver Treasuries.

中国外汇市场存在的问题及对策

在现代金融学理论的发展进程中，不确定性与信息不对称性两个概念有着重要的意义，这两个概念的提出大大推进了现代金融学的发展，本文以以上两个概念为线索概述了近代金融理论与方法在各个阶段的发展与主要研究成果。

中国股票市场的庄家操纵行为，可能是我们理解许多中国特有现象的线索，但关于坐庄手段及其经济后果等方面的研究鲜见于文献，度量庄的困难性可能是一个重要原因。我们选取了44只被中国证监会等部门以证券操纵为由处罚的股票及30只可推断为因庄家资金链断裂而连续跌停的股票为庄股样本，我们的经验研究表明，两市庄股具有显著高的户均持股数、流通股比率和显著低的流通股数量，沪市庄股具有显著高的股权集中度与换手率，深市庄股的具有显著高的大户持股比率，这些使庄股显著区别于非庄股的变量，可以作为庄的代理变量。我们对深市公司庄的特征变量与股票价格涨幅之间关系的经验研究表明，深市股票价格达到最高价前一年末户均持股数与大户持股比率高的样本组，具有显著高的累计价格涨幅、年均价格涨幅、市场调节后的年均价格涨幅，并且在此后户均持股数、大户持股比率均显著地下降。

内容提要：本文在介绍泰勒规则产生、内涵、发展的基础上，利用Lawrence模型将汇率因素引入，构建了开放经济条件下的前瞻性泰勒规则。实证结果表明：泰勒规则能够为中国货币政策提供一个很好的参照系；相对于物价稳定目标，央行更关注经济增长；将微观主体的预期和汇率因素引入到货币政策时，央行对利率的敏感性增强；继续推动利率和汇率体制改革能更有效地提高泰勒规则的解释力；“前瞻性泰勒规则”能提高中国货币政策透明度； Abstract: This paper introduce the origination、connotation and development of Taylor’s rule. On this basis, we then contrast the forward looking Taylor’s rule in an open economy by employing a model from Lawrence (1999).The empirical analysis indicates that: Taylor’s rule provides us a frame of reference in policy making; Central bank prefer “economic growth” to “price stability”; when considering the effect of public expectation and exchange rate, central bank pay more attention to price stability; exchange rate and interest rate regime reformation would increase the explanation of Taylor’s rule; the forward looking Taylor’s rule could enhance the transparency of monetary policy.