• 详情 金融创新能服务实体经济质效吗? ——基于信用保护工具提高企业投资效率的证据
    近年来,在债市违约潮频发制约债券融资的背景下,我国吸收借鉴国外信用衍生品发展经验,创新了中国版的信用风险缓释工具(Credit Risk Mitigation,以下简称CRM),推动了债市功能恢复和金融资源的有效配置。本文搜集银行间及交易所债券市场凭证类CRM数据,从提升企业投资效率的视角,考察了我国金融创新对实体经济提质增效的服务效果。结果发现,发行CRM能够同时降低企业投资不足与过度投资程度,有效抑制企业的非效率投资现象。CRM创设机构发挥了关键性的治理作用,主要通过缓解企业融资约束、降低信息不对称、增强债务治理等机制促进投资效率。CRM服务民营企业提升投资效率的效果更明显,且当CRM创设规模覆盖比率越高、保护期限越长时,提升投资效率的效果越强。结论显示,作为增强债券市场有效性的金融创新制度,CRM具有较好的增信效果和治理效果,契合了金融服务实体经济高质量发展的根本宗旨,对中央提出的“扩大有效益的投资”、“提高资金使用效率”都具有重要实践启示。
  • 详情 信贷约束、公共政策与生育决策---基于“干中学”效应
    本文研究放松信贷约束对家庭生育决策的影响,提出放松信贷约束对生育具有三方面影响。(1)家庭可支配收入水平提高,对生育有“收入效应”;(2)教育投资增加提高生育边际成本,对生育有“替代效应”;(3)育儿挤占劳动时间,“干中学”效应下工作技能水平降低,未来收入减少,对生育有“挤出效应”。在三种公共政策与金融组合中,托育服务与放松信贷约束组合能实现“更高生育率、更高人力资本增长”双目标。
  • 详情 Tax Streams, Land Rents and Urban Land Allocation
    This paper examines the fiscal motives behind municipal governments' decisions to allocate commercial and residential land when two categories of land use are subject to different fiscal revenue alternatives: business-related tax and/or land rent. We use urban parcel-level land transfers during China’s peak period of urbanization, match commercial parcels with residential parcels, and find significant price discounts on commercial parcels relative to adjacent residential parcels. The observed discounts arise from the future tax flows from commercial use, i.e., expected taxes from developed commercial land reduce its transfer price. We conduct a structural estimation to examine the implications on land use structure of future taxes lowering land transfer prices. Results show that while prospective taxes increase commercial land supply, a significant portion of the favorable treatment impact is mitigated by market price responses, suggesting that the land market counters commercial land favoritism when local revenues include both business-related taxes and land value-based charges. The results have implications for the design of urban public revenue systems.
  • 详情 个人投资者是聪明投资者吗?——来自科创板个人投资者新股中签后弃购数据的证据
    “注册制”改革后,新股弃购现象逐渐增多,已经成为新股市场中一个不容忽视的重要现象,对影响新股弃购因素的研究将有助于加深对投资者行为的理解,具有重要的现实和理论意义。本文以科创板个人投资者新股中签后的弃购行为作为研究场景,从“信息效应”和“关注效应”的视角结合发行人基本面、资本市场情绪和投资者关注度三个代表性指标研究了个人投资者新股中签后弃购决策的影响因素。研究发现:(1)发行人基本面、缴款时市场情绪和投资者关注度均对个人投资者弃购产生重要影响,尤其是市场情绪是导致个人投资者弃购最为显著的影响因素。(2)2021年9月份科创板定价制度显著提升了个人投资者的弃购率,并且造成投资者弃购决策更加依赖市场情绪。(3)弃购率高的企业IPO后续表现较差,说明科创板投资者趋于理性,并且参与弃购的个人投资者是聪明的投资者。本文结果表明企业层面,市场层面和网络信息层面的信息能够影响个人投资者交易行为,并且科创板的个人投资者中存在聪明投资者。因此,监管机构应完善科创板主承销商包销制度,允许聪明投资者弃购新股将有效制约科创板的“三高现象”。
  • 详情 How does the supplier size homogeneity affect trade credit?
    Suppliers’ bargaining power mainly comes from their market position or top supplier status. However, it is also affected by the horizontal competition from top supplier size homogeneity based on the purchasing proportion of a buyer. Using a sample of listed companies in China, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between the supplier size homogeneity with shared customers and trade credit provisions. As size homogeneity increases, suppliers may increase (decrease) trade credit provision to expand sales (for cash income). That is, based on the degree of supplier size homogeneity, the homogeneity may strengthen or weaken the supplier competition effect. We also find that if upstream and downstream firms have associated relationships, or if the business environment is poor, the competition effect from supplier size homogeneity is not obvious, whereas the weak financing ability of buyer promotes the supplier competition. In addition, the competition effect from supplier size homogeneity is not observed in state-owned firms.
  • 详情 The Nonlinear Impact of Idiosyncratic Risk on Corporate Cash Holdings: A Perspective Based on the Changes in Managers’ Risk Attitude
    Starting from the change in decision-makers’ risk attitude, which suggests “an increase in risk leads to a heightened tendency for risk aversion”, this study explores the nonlinear relationship between idiosyncratic risk and corporate cash holdings. Empirical analysis results indicate that, with the enhancement of decision-makers’ risk-averse degree, the marginal increase in corporate cash holdings presents an upward trend as idiosyncratic risk rises. Associated with the changes in managers’ risk attitude, the nonlinear relationship between idiosyncratic risk and corporate cash holdings becomes insignificant when the firm purchases directors’ liability insurance or is located in regions with better business environments. However, if the executives are older or hold academic titles, the increase in corporate cash holdings with the rise of idiosyncratic risk is more rapid.
  • 详情 Corporate Bond Defaults and Cross-Regional Investment: Evidence from China
    In China, inadequate levels of cross-regional investment represent a challenge. Our study uses the bailout reform initiated in China in 2014 to test whether market-oriented reforms of this type can help stimulate national economic integration. We observed that following a bond default event, nonlocal listed firms tend to establish a higher proportion of subsidiaries in the province where the default occurred. This phenomenon can be attributed to China’s bailout reform signaling a reduction in local protectionism in financial and product markets. Meanwhile, we found that the effects of bond defaults on cross-regional investment are more pronounced under the following conditions: when the impact of the bond default is greater; when the economic and fiscal conditions of the province where default occurs are better; when local protectionism in the home province is higher; and when the degree of asset specificity of the listed firms is lower. Finally, we found that China’s bailout reform has led to positive economic consequences, including reduced operational risks and improved total factor productivity (TFP) of firms. Overall, our paper supplements the literature on bond defaults and cross-regional investment.
  • 详情 Board competence and bank performance in China
    We incorporate econometrics approach into panel data methods to examine the impact of the board competence on the performance in Chinese banks. By investigating the biographical background of directors in the 20 largest banks during the period 2008 to 2016, our estimate shows that the board of directors play a prominent role in the performance. Especially, both the education background and the management experience have negative impact on the performance.
  • 详情 A股关联公司的股票动量溢出效应研究——基于分析师共同覆盖的视角
    本文基于有限注意力假说, 用分析师共同覆盖构建公司相关性, 检验了 A 股市场关联公司之间股票的动量溢出效应. 研究发现, 以共同覆盖分析师数量作为权重构建的关联公司股票加权平均收益率, 能正向预测焦点公司未来 1∼12 月的收益率, 基于关联公司收益率构建的多空组合可获得 10%∼12% 的年化超额收益; 在截面回归中, 关联公司动量溢出效应较同行业或同地区公司的动量溢出效应更强. 异质性分析表明, 在拥有更多分析师共同覆盖、非明星或低学历分析师共同覆盖, 以及焦点公司股票被更多压力抵抗型机构投资者持有时,关联公司动量溢出效应更强, 说明该效应的成因与分析师和投资者的有限注意带来的行动迟缓和反应滞后相关. 本文的工作对 A 股市场跨资产动量效应给出了全新证据, 对市场监管与投资者决策具有参考价值.
  • 详情 Empowering through Courts: Judicial Centralization and Municipal Financing in China
    This study finds that reducing political influence over local courts weakens local government debt capacity. We establish this result by exploiting the staggered roll-out of a judicial centralization reform aimed at alleviating local court capture in China and find reduced judicial favoritism towards local governments post-reform. The majority of local government lawsuits are with contractors over government payment delays. The reform not only increases government lawsuit losses but also exposes their credit risk, as payment delays without court support signal government liquidity constraint. Investors respond by tightening lending and increasing interest rates, which curbs government spending.