健康管理是健康保险经营过程中的重要专业环节。尽快建立我国保险业健康管理体系，已成为健康保险发展的当务之急。本文通过我国保险业健康管理领域的发展历史回顾与现状分析，对中国保险业在健康管理领域当前亟待解决的问题及未来发展方向进行了探讨。

This paper hypothesizes that the threat of losing listing status in China’s distressed ST (specialtreatment) firms kick starts a corporate control market that does not exist otherwise. The incumbent controlling shareholder, facing the possibility of losing control right, will have to“tunnel back” the value he has extracted from the firm before to boost the distressed firm’s accounting performance. This part of value is captured by the cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) surrounding ST event. We further argue that ST CARs present themselves as alternative measure of private benefits of control, distinguished from the ones used in Barclay and Holderness (1989) and Nenova (2000). Studying 66 listing companies that had become ST between 1998 and 2000 in China’s stock market, we find that the 22-month cumulative abnormal returns run as high as 29% on average. Based on a game theoretic model, we find that the control value released through the contest for corporate control right is positively related the largest shareholder’s shareholding, concentration of shares held by other largest shareholders, but negatively correlated with the firm’s leverage ratio. Our empirical evidence confirms these hypotheses.

本文从突出金融部门角度，编制了中国地区宏观金融社会核算矩阵，该项研究对于决策者和研究人员全面了解和分析地区经济状况，提供了科学的经济数据库。首先，论文从宏观经济循环角度，在分析了金融部门和地区部门的特点基础上，研究了中国地区宏观金融社会核算矩阵的结构和内容；其次，以《江苏投入产出表》(2000)和《江苏统计年鉴》为基础，结合大量调查，编制了江苏宏观金融社会核算矩阵；最后，利用跨熵(cross entropy，CE)技术，对矩阵进行了平衡处理。

郑振龙和林海（2004）利用金融工程学的基本原理和方法，在中国特殊的制度背景下对中国的可转换债券进行了合理的定价。定价结果表明，中国可转换债券的发行价格远低于其合理的价格，存在着可转换债券的低估现象(under-pricing)。本文则是立足于这个基本结论，提出一个理论分析框架，用于解释这种折价发行的现象。分析结果表明，为了实现国有非流通股股东净资产最大化的目标，折价发行可转换债券是一种必然的选择，造成的结果是原有流通股股东价值的减小

Stationary-leverage-ratio models of modelling credit risk based on constant target leverage ratios cannot generate probabilities of default which replicate empirically observed default rates. This paper presents a structural model to address this problem. The main feature of the model is that a firm’s leverage ratio is mean-reverting to a time-dependent target leverage ratio. The time-dependent target leverage ratio reflects the firm’s intention of moving its initial target ratio toward a long-term target ratio over time. We derive a closed-form solution of the probability of default based on the model as a function of the firm value, liability and short term interest rate. The numerical results calculated from the solution with simple time-dependent functions of the target leverage ratios show that the model is capable of producing term structures of probabilities of default that are consistent with some empirical findings. This model could provide new insight for future research on corporate bond analysis and credit risk measurement.

不良贷款居高不下，不仅制约着农村信用社的生存和发展，而且也影响到信用社对农村经济活动的信贷再投能力，而不良贷款“前清后增”问题 ，又是当前各级农村信用合作管理部门困惑不堪的突出问题。尽管农村信用社每年都要投入大量的人力、物力、财力等盘活清收不良贷款，但收效甚微，信贷资产质量并未得到根本性改善。因此，深入地剖析不良贷款“前清后增”的原因，对症下药，进行综合治理，便成为摆在当前农村信用社面前迫在眉睫的严峻课题。那么，不良贷款缘何会“前清后增”呢？根据笔者多年的观察和体验认为，不仅有贷户拖欠赖债的原因，更有信用社自身管理存在的弊端及社会信用环境差等诸多问题。

本文采用事件研究法和会计研究法，对1993-2002年中国上市公司的1216个并购重组事件是否创造价值进行了全面分析。实证研究表明，并购重组为目标公司创造了价值，目标公司股票溢价达到29.05％，超过20％的国际平均水平；对收购公司股东却产生了负面影响，收购公司股票溢价为-16.76％；对目标公司和收购公司的综合影响，也即社会净效应不明朗。理论分析表明，我国经济的转轨加新兴市场的特征为并购重组提供了通过协同效应创造价值的潜力，狂妄假说和代理问题等传统的并购动因理论有助于解释收购公司的价值受损，而本文提出的“体制因素下的价值转移与再分配”和“并购重组交易的决策机制”新的理论假说，更直接地解释了并购重组对目标公司、收购公司和社会总体的不同效应。

内容摘要：行为理性及其偏误是行为金融学和试验经济学研究关注的一个焦点问题。研究行为理性的传统经济实验方法是随机调查法。对不同的人群样本，我们运用对比实验方法研究了行为理性偏误，并估计出了反映理性偏误程度的指标――理性偏误系数，以及反映其波动性的理性偏误波动性系数，指出完全理性不是普遍现象，理性偏误才是普遍现象。最后分析了影响理性偏误的多种因素。

This paper investigate the distribution of daily return of Shenzhen Stock Sub-index using data analysis techniques and model fitting. Stable laws are fitted to empirical distributions using characteristic transformation estimation method. Empirical evidence supports the stable hypothesis the distribution has tails much heavier and more peak around to the center than Gaussian counterparts. Key Words: Shenzhen Sub-Index, Stable distribution, Characteristic transformation

金融市场开放步伐加快，这使我国金融风险日益凸现，且国内外金融风险的互动性逐渐增强。本文在借鉴和吸收国内外相关研究和实践的基础上，遵循科学合理的原则，从监测指标体系、分析模型的选择和预估监测体系模型的运作等方面对国际金融风险监测预估模型进行了阐述。