按Merton 的观点,股价的变化可分为两类，一类是常规的边际扰动，另一类是非常规的突变。为了更好地分析研究金融市场的变化性态，我们在运用二叉树研究股价及其或有要求权价格常规变动的基础上，进一步利用此工具研究在面临突变可能的市场中或有要求权的定价问题，并推导出关于欧式或有要求权（期权）定价、标的资产（股票）估价的明确表达式。

Much recent work has documented evidence for predictability of asset returns.We show how such predictability can affect the portfolio choice of long-lived investors who value wealth not for its own sake but for the consumption their wealth can support.We develop an approximate solution method for the optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an infinitely-lived investor with Epstein-Zin utility who faces a set of asset returns described by a vector autoregression in returns and state variables.Empirical estimates in long-run annual and postwar quarterly US data suggest that the predictability of stock returns greatly inceases the optimal demand for stocks.The role of nominal bonds in long-term portfolios depends on the importance of real interest rate risk relative to other sources of risk.We extend the analysis to consider long-term inflation-indexed bonds and find that these bonds greatly increase the utility of conservative investors,who should hold large positions when they are available.

各种货币利率理论的分析方法可以分为两类：存量分析法和流量分析法。蒋硕杰是一位专注于货币利率理论领域的经济学家，他是罗伯逊可贷资金理论的支持者，是所有各种形态的凯恩斯货币存量分析法最有说服力的评论家之一，也是流量分析法的最高成就者之一。文章对蒋硕杰在利率理论中对于存量分析和流量分析的观点进行了一番综合评述。

This paper investigates the correlation between bond and stock returns in UK in daily data. It checks how the correlation between bond and stock returns changes over time and analyses the reasons behind the correlation between them. Through the examination of the UK daily data in the period from July 1996 to May 2003, this paper reports some important findings. Firstly, the correlation between bond and stock returns is not constant over time and the unconditional correlation between bond and stock returns even becomes negative in the sample of this paper. Secondly, there are two factors affecting the correlation between bond and stock returns in the UK: the real interest rate and the stock market volatility. The increasing real interest rate increases the correlation between bond and stock returns. However, the increasing stock market volatility causes a decrease of the correlation between the two returns decrease. Moreover, the stock market volatility plays a main role to understand the correlation between bond and stock returns in the sample of this paper.

风险值(VaR)是最近十几年发展起来的一种市场风险度量尺度，目前国际上最常用的金融市场风险度量基准。传统的VaR估计方法基本上都是依赖于历史数据的，并且只能在市场处于正常变动时衡量所面临的风险。由于金融市场中影响资产收益状况的因素时刻都在变化之中, 资产收益分布中的参数也是不断变化的, 因此用Bayes方法预测未来收益状况的VaR更合适。本文给出了BVaR和BCVaR的概念，讨论了BVaR的性质与特点，并对市场因子服从正态分布时组合BVaR以及非线性组合BVaR的计算进行了研究。

武汉地处华中，其经济发展水平、医疗卫生资源、保险业务规模等均居我国中等水平。研究武汉地区商业健康保险公司与医疗机构合作情况，对于了解我国现阶段健康保险医务管理状况与水平具有一定的代表性。研究发现保险公司与医疗机构之间的合作意识双方近年日渐增强，但沟通和交流渠道严重不足，专业管理人员严重匮缺。双方行政主管部门的介入与引导作用亟待加强。

This paper considers the extent to which countries or companies can successfully borrow foreign corporate governance elements with a view to improving their own governance system. Companies in particular theoretically can rent other countries’ governance system through cross-listing. At bottom, the question is whether foreign legal elements can be “plugged-in” neatly into an existing corporate governance system, be compatible with it, and produce the expected improvements. Advances in different branches of psychology dealing with cultural orientations and cognitive styles suggest that the greater the cultural distance between the source and target countries the more difficult it would be to implement such a strategy for corporate governance reform. To demonstrate these points in detail, this paper considers South Korea’s corporate governance system and its culture as a reference case.

本文是关于货币危机的一个概述。全文分为五部分：第一部分介绍国际上比较流行的对货币危机的定义；第二部分回顾了70年代至今的几代货币危机理论，包括货币危机的传染理论；第三部分简单介绍了国际上比较流行的货币危机模型及模型的原理；第四部分是对这些模型的预测、解释力的评价；第五部分讨论了早期预警系统EWS。全文主要是结合一些英文文献及国内对货币危机的研究进行讨论的。

摘要：在不良资产保全手段中，以物抵债占据重要地位。因为地方与中央潜在利益冲突、宏观决策部门的监管与服务滞后等原因，造成了以物抵债资产处置市场的分割，这扩大了不良资产处置的损失。为提高不良资产处置效益，亟需在二次剥离、商业银行自行处置、地方政府为主体处置等三种方案之外寻求良策。基于此，作者提出了强化“省级”宏观调控作用，建立规范有序、公开透明、集中的以物抵债资产处置市场的政策建议。

本文旨在研究随这利率的逐步市场化，在风险定价机制作用下，商业银行风险理念与战略的正确选择。为了论证理性的银行风险观，本文从风险计量基本技术和风险定价的基本原理入手，解释分析了“风险厌恶”观和“风险经营”观的思想、特征和方法。最后，通过利息支付极限的引入，推导出风险定价“陷阱”的存在，进一步地，本文用数学方法证明了风险定价“陷阱”的存在必然性，从而论证了风险定价机制的局限。通过一个简化和概念性的例子，说明了风险定价机制的缺陷，最终归结出本文的结论：商业银行的风险观既不是纯粹“风险厌恶”的，也不是纯粹“风险经营”的，而是在“风险厌恶”限制下的“风险经营”。