This paper reports the effort of deducing the initial strategy distributions of agents in mix-game model which is used to predict a real financial time series generated from a target financial market. Using mix-game to predict Shanghai Index, we find the time series of prediction accurate rates is sensitive to the initial strategy distributions of agents in group 2 who play minority game, but less sensitive to the initial strategy distributions of agents in group 1 who play majority game. And agents in group 2 tend to cluster in full strategy space (FSS) if the real financial time series has obvious tendency (upward or downward), otherwise they tend to scatter in FSS. We also find that the initial strategy distributions and the number of agents in group 1 influence the level of prediction accurate rates. Finally, this paper gives suggestion about further research.

We investigate the optimal dynamic consumption, housing and portfolio decisions for an investor who receives stochastic labor income and acquires housing services from either renting or owning a house. We find that the investor prefers owning to renting to take advantage of lower owning cost when not liquidity?constrained. More important, when indi®erent between owning and renting, the homeowner holds a higher equity proportion in his liquid financial portfolio (bond and stock), yet a lower equity proportion in his total financial wealth (stock, bond and home equity) than the renter. Further, having the opportunity to own a house tilts a renter’s portfolio towards safe asset, while being able to rent housing services induces a homeowner to increase his stock holding. Denying investors access to either the house owning or rental market can lead to large welfare costs. Empirical evidence from the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finance data is broadly consistent with our theoretical predictions.

本文针对竞争环境下，企业总是努力更新换代产品、实现可持续发展的实际，构建了一个产品更替投资（投资包）价值分析模型，并通过实例予以印证。结果表明，在产品前后之间存在相互加强的关系时，应当把企业视为一个持续经营实体评价项目投资价值，孤立评价前期产品投资可能得出错误结论。

股票发行市场实行通道制度以取代实行了9年之久的审批制和指标制已经有两年多了。在这期间，市场上同时也产生了私下通道交易问题，这给我国证券市场带来了很多后遗症，本文从理论上证明了在当前市场状况下通道制度的实行使私下通道交易成为可能和必然，这样进一步说明了随着中国证券市场的发展这种过渡性制度必然为其它更加完善更加有效的发行制度--保荐人制度所取代。

本文通过对我国1994年1季度―2005年4季度农业贷款、乡镇企业贷款等代表农村正规金融的指标与第一产业增加值进行的Johansen协整检验表明，目前我国农村正规金融与农村经济增长之间并不存在长期稳定的均衡关系，我国农村正规金融的发展远远没有满足农村经济增长的需要。但由于没有考虑非正规金融因素，这个结论并不一定表明金融发展理论对我国农村经济增长的不适用性，相反从侧面说明了我国农村非正规金融的积极作用，而这才是今后农村金融改革应该注意的方向。

This article will give an overview of China’s bond market development, its achievements and the future prospects of China’s bond fund market. Furthermore, it will provide some concrete suggestions on how to improve bond market liquidity based on my experience running China’s first bond fund.

银行企业文化的标志之一就是银行团队精神。本文就是银行团队精神的纲要。

农业、农民和农村经济（三农）的发展是我国当前最为紧迫的问题。作为现代经济核心的金融，在支持“三农”发展中发挥着关键作用，但由于多重因素的制约，金融在支持农村经济发展上依然面临诸多问题。本文以湖南省安化县为例，通过对该县金融支持“三农”发展情况的调查，并以此作为个案，探讨、研究金融支持“三农”发展中存在的主要问题以及应对措施。

本文结合北京现有经济环境的特点及商业银行现金管理业务的优势，认为现金管理业务可以起到以点带线，再由线成面的作用：它能够促进北京总部经济的发展，使得北京的众多经济资源汇聚成合力，并最终带来具有北京鲜明特色的金融服务中心的形成。为此笔者认为，短期内，政府应尽快修改《关于鼓励跨国公司在京设立地区总部的若干规定》，并加入鼓励现金管理业务开展及其创新方面的内容；从长期看，政府应进一步论证使北京成为离岸金融服务中心的可行性，并在此基础上制订出一系列可以逐步实行的政策制度及优惠方案。

本文建立在相关文献的基础上运用Cobb-Douglas生产函数以及Solow余值增长方程，测算了1978-2002年资本投入和劳动力对陕西产出增长速度的贡献率，得出了资本投入增加远远大于劳动投入增加对产出增长的贡献率，并分析了该结果与全国和其他地区水平的差异，根据陕西民间资本供给以及民营企业对其需求状况，提出了有效动员民间资本为内生性经济增长做贡献的对策建议。