• 详情 Switching to Floating Inverts Price Discovery for China's Dual Listed Stocks: High-Frequency Evidence
    This paper examines whether China’s switch back and forth from fixed to floating exchange rates in 2005 and 2008 changed the contribution to stock price discovery by foreign and domestic investors. During that time, mainland investors could only trade the RMB-denominated A-shares in the domestic Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, while the dual-listed HKD-denominated H-shares were available only to overseas investors. Using intraday data on overlapping trading hours, we find that the switch from a fixed rate to managed floating in July 2005 increased the H-shares’ contribution to price discovery; while the exchange rate regime reversal in July 2008 allowed the domestic stocks to regain their dominance in information shares. These results imply that, in a market subject to restrictions on capital flows, a flexible exchange rate regime increases the propensity of investors to trade foreign-issued stocks to speculate on the RMB exchange rate, which raises overseas investors’ contribution to price discovery.
  • 详情 完善专利制度体系建设的实现路径研究:来自专利代理行业的视角
    完善专利制度体系建设,是我国从知识产权大国向知识产权强国迈进的关键举措。作为专利制度体系的重要组成部分,专利代理机构是连接发明人、申请人与审查员、法官等的重要桥梁和纽带。本文首次实证检验了我国专利代理行业的发展对创新绩效的影响,从而通过专利代理行业的视角,来探究专利制度体系的建设和完善。借助2008年高新技术企业资质认定政策调整的拟自然实验,本文发现,政策变动前一省高新技术企业占比越高,政策变动后该省专利代理机构数量和创新产出的增长越快,但与此同时也引致了专利质量的下降。从专利代理行业看,规模小、从业年限短的专利代理机构,以及代理业务竞争激烈、技术复杂度高、专利审查员工作负荷高、审查速度快的技术领域,专利代理机构对创新质量的影响更为凸显。从细分的技术专业领域来看,与新能源相关的一些战略性新兴产业的专利代理机构,需要进一步加强政府监管。本文的发现为改进科技激励政策的机制设计,完善专利代理行业的制度体系建设,以及实现我国知识产权创造由多向优、由大到强的转变,提供了科学可行的启示。
  • 详情 In victory or defeat: Consumption responses to wealth shocks
    Using four datasets of individuals’ digital payment and mutual fund investment records from a dominating fintech platform, we observe a robust U-shaped relation between individuals’ consumption and their financial wealth shocks. Contrary to the prediction of the wealth effect, individuals increase their consumption shortly after experiencing large positive and negative wealth shocks. The unexpected increase in consumption following negative wealth shocks is particularly pronounced among consumption categories with a “hedonic” nature, such as entertainment-related items. We show that this effect, termed “financial retail therapy,” is consistent with a dynamic model of Prospect Theory and evidence from a controlled laboratory experiment.
  • 详情 Macro-Prudential Policy, Digital Transformations and Banks’ Risk-Taking
    Macro-prudential policy plays a crucial role in stabilizing the financial system and influencing banks' risk preferences and willingness to take risks. This study examines the influence of macro-prudential policies on bank risk-taking using unbalanced panel data from 126 commercial banks in China between 2010 and 2021. The difference-in-differences model is employed to analyze the data. The empirical findings demonstrate that implementing macro-prudential policies in China effectively enhances bank risk prevention measures. In other words, macro-prudential policy implementation facilitates the digital transformation of banks and subsequently reduces risk-taking behaviors. Moreover, the heterogeneity test reveals that macro-prudential policies have a more significant impact on the risk-taking behavior of commercial banks with higher capital adequacy ratios compared to those with lower ratios. Additionally, commercial banks with strong interbank dependence exhibit more pronounced effects on their risk profiles when subjected to macroprudential policies with stricter capital supervision requirements. Therefore, this study proposes policy recommendations for strengthening bank capital supervision through differentiated approaches, serving as a valuable reference for the regulatory authorities.
  • 详情 The Political Economy of COVID-19 in China
    This research analyses the ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's economy, examining the divergent epidemic prevention policies used by local governments. Empirical evidence highlights that the emergence of COVID-19 cases correlates with a 1.13% reduction in quarterly GDP growth. However, when a city's secretary maintains an informal ties with the provincial secretary, GDP growth remains resilient. Analyzing micro-level data, we observe that city secretaries with informal ties tend to enact flexible anti-contagion measures. This flexibility stems from a decreased likelihood of reprimand for virus transmission. Such shields exclusively manifests when incumbent provincial secretaries share informal ties with central leadership. This underscores the interplay of political networks in shaping localized economic responses.
  • 详情 State Ownership's Influence and the Contingent Role of Firm Size on Technological Innovation: Exploration and Exploitation in Chinese Firms
    Recent research indicates that the relationship between state ownership, firm size, and technological innovation outcomes in Chinese firms is a complex and intriguing topic. However, we propose a new perspective based on institutional complexity and examine the combined effects of these two factors. By considering the interplay between the economic efficiency rationale and the institutional logic associated with state ownership and firm size within the context of Chinese firms, we argue that the effects of state ownership and firm size can counterbalance each other. In order to test our hypotheses, we analyze a sample of 385 publicly listed firms spanning the period from 2015 to 2019. The findings reveal that while state ownership and firm size individually exert a negative influence on both exploratory and exploitative innovation in Chinese firms, their interaction actually yields a positive impact. This study contributes to our comprehension of how state ownership influences exploratory and exploitative innovation in the presence of competing institutional logics, as well as the contingent effect of firm size.
  • 详情 China’s Pursuit of Central Bank Digital Currency: Reasons, Prospects and Implications
    Amongst major economies, China has been taking a lead in the development of central bank digital currency (CBDC), which has generated widespread interest and impact around the globe. China’s CBDC, commonly known as e-CNY, is designed with several distinctive features, enabling it to compare favorably to other payment methods such as credit cards, mobile payment, unbacked cryptocurrency, and stablecoins. A variety of social, economic, political, and regulatory reasons can be identified to help explain China’s active pursuit of CBDC. However, the prospect of success will be affected by many factors and may vary between the domestic and international markets. This paper argues that the adoption of eCNY will likely succeed domestically, but may face more challenges in the international markets. The development of e-CNY seems to have created a catfish effect on other major economies in the race for CBDC. It is not fully clear, however, that the CBDC race will be better explained by the first-mover or the late-mover advantage theory. The CBDC project will have both public and private law implications, and several legal issues warrant particular attention in relation to the legal status of CBCD, the role and responsibility of the central bank, legal remedies for losses suffered by CBDC users from cybersecurity issues and operational problems, and the issue of data privacy and protection.
  • 详情 评论两篇错误的短债长用研究高被引论文
    我国现有关于短债长用研究的文献对于核心变量“短债长用”的度量方法主要来自《管理世界》和《经济研究》各一篇文章的原创,这两篇文章也因此成为了高被引文章。令人遗憾的是,这两篇文章所采用的短债长用度量方法都是错误的,不是度量指标存在噪音的问题,而是度量方法存在根本上的逻辑错误。本文深入分析了这两篇文章短债长用度量方法的错误,并给出了短债长用度量和分析的初步建议。
  • 详情 Monitoring Fintech Firms: Evidence from the Collapse of Peer-to-Peer Lending Platforms
    In recent years, numerous Chinese peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms have collapsed, prompting us to investigate the regulation and monitoring of the fintech industry. Using a unique dataset of P2P lending platforms in China, we examine the effect of government monitoring on platform collapses. Exploiting platforms’ locational proximity to regulatory offices as a proxy for government monitoring, we show that greater geographical distance results in a higher likelihood of platform collapse. Specifically, for every 10% increase in the driving distance from the platform to the local regulatory office, the likelihood of collapse increases by 10.2%. To establish causality, we conduct a differencein-differencesanalysis that exploits two exogenous shocks: government office relocation and subway station openings. We further explore two underlying channels: the information channel through which greater regulatory distance reduces the likelihood of regulators’ onsite visits and the resource constraint channel, through which greater regulatory distance significantly increases the local regulatory office’s monitoring costs. Overall, this study highlights the importance of onsite regulatory monitoring to ensure the viability of online lending platforms.
  • 详情 Do Anticipated Government Environmental Audits Improve Firm Productivity?Evidence from China
    We investigate the impacts of anticipated government environmental audits (GEAs) on firm productivity. We use a 2009 policy set forth by China’s National Audit Office that required GEAs of local governments as an exogenous event to examine the effect of the policy announcement on firms’ total factor productivity (TFP). Our difference-in-differences tests indicate that TFP in heavily polluting firms improved more than other firms’ TFP after the announcement of the policy. We also find that to raise TFP, firms engage in green invention patents or receive government environmental subsidies. In addition, our cross-sectional analysis suggests that firms in regions where governments have strong environmental enforcement or that are in the eastern regions of China increase TFP more.