Through a unique database on daily activities of municipal party secretaries, we find that they spend a significant part of their work time on political and propaganda activities, including organizing various meetings to promote the central government's spirit ideology. We find that officials engage in these behaviors more often before a government reshuffle, plausibly tend to leave a loyal and obedient impression on the superior government and increase their promotion probability. This is on contrary to economic behaviors, which are more common in the early stages of officials' terms, possibly because investment projects require time. This is more evident among younger, well-educated politicians due to age-based promotion restrictions. Our study may shed light on how the Communist Party of China balancing economic development and political loyalty when selecting officials.

The side effect of automation on the economy has been discussed frequently, but little is known regarding its political consequences. This paper examines the causal effect that automation induces political costs for the local government. By combining the national individual-level panel data of political trust with the prefecture-level robot exposure rate in China biennially during the period 2012– 2018, we find that the development of automation would incur lower political trust in the Chinese local government. Furthermore, the impact may result from the risk of unemployment, intensified pessimism about local government, higher downside risk, and declining group participation, providing a few channels for the automation process to affect citizens’political trust. This paper provides empirical evidence for the impact of automation and the source of political legitimacy, contributing to the literature about automation by emphasizing the crucial role of government in coping with the technological progress and making good use of endogenous creative destruction.

增强服务实体经济的能力是发展金融科技的根本目的。本文在利用自然语言处理技术对上市银行年报进行分析，测度银行个体层面金融科技水平基础上，实证检验金融科技对银行贷款配置的影响及其作用机理，以此考察金融科技对提升金融服务实体经济能力的作用效果。研究发现，商业银行发展金融科技尽 管显著提高了零售贷款供给，但是对实体贷款供给产生了挤出效应，并且该挤出效应对于放贷资金紧张的商业银行更为显著。机制检验结果表明，挤出实体贷款与银行追求利益最大化的经营目标一致，是银行出于增加收益、减少损失和降低风险的理性决策行为，表现为在零售贷款相对于实体贷款收益率更高、实体贷款不良率更高以及风险资产率更高的银行中，该挤出效应更为明显；同时，商业银行发展金融科技能够显著降低总贷款的不良率和显著提高总贷款的收益率。进一步的证据还表明，该挤出效应对于拥有手机 APP的银行，在数字金融素养高和贷款需求旺盛的区域，以及在消费者信心指数高的宏观环境下也更为明显。本文的研究结论从商业银行金融科技影响贷款配置的视角揭示了一个金融科技影响实体经济增长的潜在负向效益，有助于深入理解技术驱动的金融创新与经济发展之间的关系，同时在监管层面为促进我国金融科技高质量发展提供重要参考和政策建议。

Volatility in the financial markets is commonplace and it comes with a cost. One of these costs is abrupt and huge drop in stock price that is known as stock price crash. To model this, we propose a new machine-learning based stock crash risk measure using minimum covariance determinant (MCD) to detect stock price crash. Using this proposed dependent variable, we try to predict stock price crash using cross-sectional regression. The findings confirm that the method properly capture the stock price crash and our proposed model performs well in terms of statistical significance and financial impact. Moreover, using newly introduced firm-specific investor sentiment index, it is identified that stock price crash and firm-specific investor sentiment are positively correlated. That is, higher sentiment leads to an increase with stock price crash risk, a relation that remains robust even when different firm sizes and detoned firm-specific investor sentiment index are considered.

Establishing a comprehensive risk management system and establishing a sound and effective internal control mechanism are important conditions for the survival and healthy development of financial enterprises. This paper analyzes the lessons of Société Générale's financial shock in Europe in 2008 due to the serious lack of internal control mechanism; Elaborated on the influencing factors and implementation paths of internal control in the digital intelligence era, pointed out the key points of constructing an internal control system under risk management in the digital intelligence era, and proposed the main methods and six major technologies of internal control in the digital intelligence era; This paper expounds that the audit Digital transformation is conducive to the realization of internal audit objectives and the improvement of internal audit efficiency. This paper introduces the main paths and key points of audit Digital transformation, and points out that intelligent audit is the major trend of future audit development; Introduced the application of digital twins in commercial bank auditing. It points out that the Digital transformation of audit is also the upgrading and transformation of organizations and talents, and it needs to vigorously cultivate and introduce audit professionals to support the smooth completion of the Digital transformation of audit. Financial enterprises should continue to innovate their internal control mechanisms, continuously improve and strengthen their internal control and risk management functions, continuously improve the effectiveness of internal control, and assist in the high-quality development of enterprises.

The past decade has witnessed a phenomenal rise of digital wallets, and the COVID-19 pandemic further accelerated their adoption globally. Such e-wallets provide not only a conduit to external bank accounts but also internal payment options, including the ever-popular Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL). We examine, for the first time, e-wallet transactions matched with merchant and consumer information from a world-leading provider based in China, with around one billion users globally and a business model that other e-wallet providers quickly converge to. We document that internal payment options, especially BNPL, dominate both online and on-site transactions. BNPL has greatly expanded credit access at the extensive margin through its adoption in two-sided payment markets. While BNPL crowds out other e-wallet payment options, it expands FinTech credit to underserved consumers. Exploiting a randomized experiment, we also find that e-wallet credit through BNPL substantially boosts consumer spending. Nevertheless, users, especially those relying on e-wallets as their sole credit source, carefully moderate borrowing when incurring interest charges. The insights likely prove informative for economies transitioning from cash-heavy to cashless societies where digital payments and FinTech credit see the largest growth and market potential.

以2002年至2018年A股上市公司的季报量化了公司的盈利季节性，考察了市场对盈利季节性的反应，并从行为金融学的角度解释了其原因。研究发现，相较于盈利旺季而言，股票在其盈利淡季的盈余公告发布期间能够获得更大的累计超额收益，且买入盈利淡季股票、卖出盈利旺季股票的套利组合在经过标准风险因子的调整后每月能够获得显著为正的超额收益：同时，相较于其他季度而言，股票在盈利淡季的盈余公告发布后具有更大的未预期盈余。结果表明，由于市场参与者受代表性启发（Representativeness Heuristic）认知方式的影响，对盈利淡季近几年持续的低盈利情况反应过度，因此对该季度的盈利产生悲观情绪而低估该季度的盈利，故盈利淡季的盈余公告发布后能获得更大的超额收益。

本文以借壳上市为研究场景，讨论和度量了分析师盈余预测中的公共信息依赖效应。研究发现，相比于控制样本，借壳上市企业在业绩承诺期结束后三年的分析师盈余预测误差上升约 39.72%，分歧度上升约 35.29%。进一步研究发现，失去业绩承诺信息导致分析师盈余预测的公共信息含量下降，但私有信息含量没有变化，同时也会导致分析师盈余预测修正频率上升，但并未影响分析师的企业调研行为。研究还发现，分析师的盈余预测报告在业绩承诺存续期内缺乏有用性，仅在业绩承诺期结束后引起了投资者更强烈的市场反应。总体而言，公共信息对于分析师盈余预测质量至关重要，分析师在失去重要的公共信息后未能通过私有信息加以弥补。本文的研究揭示了分析师的公共信息依赖效应，对于深入理解中国情境下分析师的行为逻辑提供了帮助。

内容提要 2008年全球金融危机的经验说明银行业在跨境金融联系中发挥着关键作用。近年来，全球经济一体化使得跨境金融联系愈加紧密，本文以 2016-2021 年 14 个亚洲经济体银行业的未偿债权与债务的季度数据为样本构建了亚洲经济体银行业跨境信贷网络，并使用网络分析方法对该信贷网络的结构特征、重要性节点以及中日银行业的跨境联系进行了分析。研究表明，2016-2020年亚洲地区各经济体银行业之间的跨境关联越来越紧密，全球疫情带来的负面影响在 2021 年逐渐显现，使得各经济体的跨境信贷联系明显收缩:新加坡在亚洲银行业跨境信贷网络中发挥着极其重要的中介作用，印度的跨境关联强度不断提升，其重要性逐渐增强:中国银行业对外发出的跨境关联强度增幅显著，在网络中扮演着越来越重要的资金贷出方的角色，重要程度显著上升，而日本银行业的跨境关联强度无明显增幅，在网络中的重要性相对下降。本文为中国银行业的对外开放以及亚洲区域金融一体化的实现提供了政策启示。

This paper provides a first systematic analysis of urban vibrancy in human capital supply in explaining persistent geographic firm valuation dispersion in China. We find persistent, significant city-to-city differences in Tobin’s q, especially among large, mature, or high labor-intensive firms. To explain such geographic differences in firm valuations, we identify several factors of the endowed city competitive advantages in creating human capital that play important roles in explaining the persistent geographic firm valuation premia. Our evidence suggests that city geographic location and initial cumulated human capital supply have created long-lasting, and growing, shareholder wealth by attracting and retaining talents and human resources in local firms.