• 详情 基于RIM模型的中国A股泡沫测量及有效市场下泡沫空间的探讨
    市场有效性和股市泡沫是学术界非常关注的话题,市场有效性和股市泡沫是一体两面,既互相联系又彼此对立。本文回顾了有效市场假说(EMH)的理论,并基于剩余收益模型(RIM)方法,以A股市场为例对中国A股市场的内在价值、股市泡沫率进行了分析与衡量。A股历史泡沫率的中位数超过20%,在2001-2019年的统计期内A股绝大多数时间处于高估的状态;在过去的30年发展中,中国股市还为构建具有高效纠错的市场机制,其中有“政策市”等人为干预的因素,使得市场价格长期以来偏离企业内在价值。从投资的角度,A股历史泡沫率与未来5年投资收益率(CAGR)呈现明显的负相关。本文对A股泡沫空间的测量与市场有效性的探讨,对于构建更具效率的A股市场具有参考价值。
  • 详情 Blockchain+Audit: An Important Tool for Enterprise Internal Control and Risk Management
    Establishing a comprehensive risk management system and establishing a sound and effective internal control mechanism are important conditions for the survival and healthy development of enterprises. Enterprises should continue to innovate their internal control mechanisms, continuously improve and strengthen their internal control and risk management functions, continuously improve their internal control effectiveness, and assist in high-quality development of enterprises. The article elaborates that the digital transformation of auditing helps to achieve internal audit goals and improve the effectiveness of internal control; Blockchain technology, due to its excellent characteristics of distributed decentralization, authenticity, transparency, and tamper resistance, will help transform the methods of financial and accounting business and audit supervision; The application of blockchain technology in the field of auditing will inevitably lead to the reshaping of audit work models; Blockchain technology will become a trigger point for the audit revolution, comprehensively empowering audit and risk management work. The article introduces JD's blockchain ABS standardization solution, while Tencent and TCL Group's industrial blockchain solve the reliable transmission of trust and value at low cost, confirming that the close combination of blockchain technology with enterprise finance and auditing can assist internal control and play an important risk prevention and control role in enterprise operations. The "blockchain+audit" can achieve online real-time audit, risk assessment and warning, and data analysis becomes the core of audit content; Blockchain+auditing will become an important tool for internal control and risk management in enterprises.
  • 详情 Why China's Housing Policies Have Failed
    This paper reviews the current housing crisis in China and explores the roles of supply-demand imbalances and local governments in the real estate sector. To prevent the housing downturn from further dragging down economic growth, Beijing suspended the financing restrictions on developers imposed in August 2020. These restrictions, known as the “three red lines” that limited new borrowing by developers, led Chinese property developers to default on a record number of debt obligations and triggered the most serious housing slump China has seen since 1998. The property sector saw its value added decline by more than 5 percent in 2022, even as the overall economy grew at 3 percent. But the current dynamics in the housing market reflect a repeated pattern: Loosening financing restrictions on developers and using housing as a macroeconomic stabilization tool risks reinforcing the boom-bust housing cycle. China’s real estate sector is a systemic problem. Without serious reforms to address concerns such as supply-demand imbalances and local governments’ deep connections with real estate, housing slumps like the one in 2022 may recur.
  • 详情 Implicit corruption with subsidiaries: Evidence from land sales in China
    We investigate whether and how political connections penetrate through headquarter-subsidiary relationships. Our results show that even though the headquarters of politically connected listed firms pay comparable land prices as other firms, their subsidiaries pay 12.1-13.2% less. The price discount, driven by corruption rather than government subsidies, is exacerbated when the land is sold through informationally opaque supply methods and when land is for commercial or residential use. The anti-corruption campaign has successfully mitigated such price distortions. Our findings also show that better legal protection and private sector development are crucial for fair markets.
  • 详情 Digital Intelligence Empowers audit Transformation and Promotes High-quality Development of Enterprises
    Audit digitalization is the organic integration of digital technology and audit work; Internal audit digital intelligence is a collective term for internal audit digitalization and internal audit intelligence. This paper systematically expounds that the digital transformation of audit is conducive to achieving internal audit goals, giving full play to the internal audit function, and improving the efficiency of internal audit. The main paths and key points of the digital transformation of enterprise audit are introduced, and it is pointed out that intelligent audit is a major trend in the future development of auditing. The three types of intelligent audit and the application of digital twin in commercial bank audit are introduced. A brief introduction to Bank of Jiangsu's research-based audit and its achievements. It is pointed out that the digital transformation of audit is also the upgrading and transformation of organizations and talents, and it is necessary to vigorously cultivate and introduce audit professionals to support the smooth achievement of digital transformation of auditing
  • 详情 Accelerate Financial Digital Transformation to Help Enterprises Develop in High Quality
    The improvement of production efficiency and the change of business model brought about by the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy have become an important driving force for industrial transformation and upgrading. This paper explains the necessity of digital transformation of manufacturing, the trends, paths and six technologies of financial digital transformation. In the digital era, relying on data, scenarios, and algorithms to explore the essential logic of business, make predictions and decisions based on business insights, and put forward higher requirements for financial empowerment business. As an important way for enterprise management transformation and upgrading, the core goal of financial digital transformation is to take "data-driven" as the main line, promote transformation based on the two principles of industry-finance integration and in-depth scenarios, and build "value-creating" finance, that is, based on the integrated application of digital technology, so that finance can expand the functions of supporting strategy, assisting decision-making, empowering business, preventing and controlling risks, lean management, operational excellence, quality and efficiency, compliance supervision and other functions on the basis of basic transaction accounting functions, and promote and even lead the value creation functions of enterprises. The article points out that the manufacturing industry should take enhancing competitiveness as the direction, financial management as the center, and improving quality and efficiency as the goal to accelerate digital transformation. Introduced Midea Group's financial digital transformation practices and results. It is proposed that enterprises should vigorously promote the deep integration of big data, Internet, cloud computing, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, blockchain and the real economy, accelerate the digital transformation of finance, and inject new impetus into the high-quality development of enterprises.
  • 详情 Does ESG Rating Affect the Real Earnings Management of Enterprises - Based on Empirical Evidence of Chinese Listed Companies
    This paper explores the relationship between ESG ratings and real earnings management using the data of Chinese listed companies from 2008 to 2021. We find that ESG ratings and real earnings management are negatively correlated. It reveals that the improvement of ESG rating will help to improve the level of corporate governance, standardize the business activities of enterprises and thus help to reduce the real earnings management of enterprises. Our findings still hold after controlling for potential endogeneity and robustness issues. Further analysis shows that internal and external oversight of companies further strengthens the negative relationship between ESG ratings and true earnings management. Overall, the impact mechanism of ESG rating on real earnings management revealed by us has clear policy implications for how managers can improve the quality of information disclosure in emerging markets.
  • 详情 Digital Intelligence Empowers Manufacturing Industry Transformation to Assist Enterprises in Leaping Forward High Quality Development
    The improvement of production efficiency and changes in business models brought about by the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy have become an important driving force for industrial transformation and upgrading. This paper expounds the necessity of digital transformation of manufacturing industry and its path selection. The important role of industrial Internet and Internet platforms is pointed out, and the characteristics of industrial Internet platforms such as Midea Group and Siemens MindSphere and their effects on industrial transformation are analyzed. Enterprises should vigorously promote the deep integration of big data, the Internet, cloud computing, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, blockchain and the real economy, accelerate the digital transformation of the manufacturing industry, and inject new impetus into the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.
  • 详情 以青山集团LME 镍被逼仓事件为例的期货 市场狙击风险分析框架
    伦敦金属交易所(LME)镍期货价格在2022年3月7日至8日两个交易日暴涨,令我国青山控股集团持有的镍套期保值空头浮亏惨重,成为又一起企业参与境外衍生品交易被国际资本狙击的风险事件。本文对“青山事件”狙击活动进行了详细案例分析与解构,从狙击动机、客观条件、市场环境、狙击策略四个维度提出了可用于分析期货市场狙击事件的分析框架。研究发现,交叉套保令青山集团实物交割能力弱成为被狙击的客观条件,地缘政治风险引发的低水平镍库存的市场环境进一步限制了青山集团的库存掌控能力和交割能力。LME合约设计令交易仓位和动机暴露,LME交易制度令短期价格操纵等狙击行为更具便利性,并可据此推断出本次狙击的合约、时间、价格拉动手法等狙击策略。大类持仓报告的分析揭示出本次狙击的本质可能是对镍资源的争夺战。最后,本文利用事件分析法证实了2022年3月7日镍期货价格暴涨并非基本面因素支撑而是交易因素驱动的价格异常。本研究结合案例分析、数据分析和实证分析的多种范式,所提出的分析框架对于识别狙击风险,识别市场操纵,更好的评估相关风险并做好早期预警和防范具有重要价值。
  • 详情 Impacts of CME changing mechanism for allowing negative oil prices on prices and trading activities in the crude oil futures market
    This study investigates and compares the effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)'s negative price suggestion on prices and trading activities in the crude oil futures market to discuss the cause of negative crude oil futures prices. Through event studies, our results show that the COVID-19 pandemic no longer impacts crude oil futures prices in April after controlled market risk, while the CME’s negative prices suggestion can explain the crude oil futures price changes around and around even after April 8 to some degree. Moreover, our study uncovers anomalies in prices and trading activities by analyzing returns, trading volume, open interest, and illiquidity measures using vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The results imply that CME’s allowing negative prices strengthens the price impact on trading volume and makes illiquidity risk matter. Our results coincide with the following lawsuit evidence of market manipulation.