所属栏目:家庭金融/行为金融

Context-Dependent Memory and Disagreement: Evidence from Household Inflation Expectations
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发布日期:2026年10月15日 上次修订日期:2026年10月15日

摘要

Households form beliefs by recalling past experiences, but recall is context dependent. Variation in contexts alone can therefore generate non-fundamental disagreement. A stylized model à la Wachter and Kahana (2024) illustrates this cognitive source of disagreement. When combined with salience-based frictions in memory encoding, context-dependent recall also generates testable predictions for belief skewness. Using weather as a contextual cue that triggers the recall of past shopping experiences, I construct a measure of memory-based household inflation disagreement in the U.S. and show that it explains survey-based disagreement, with stronger effects in unusual contexts, and predicts greater belief skewness. The memory effect is distinct from experience and mood effects and generalizes across countries and outcome domains. Finally, memory-based disagreement weakens monetary policy transmission by attenuating intended consumption responses.
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Yanlin Bao Context-Dependent Memory and Disagreement: Evidence from Household Inflation Expectations (2026年10月15日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16885

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