Applying comparative institutional analysis method, based on the the analysis of typical cases , in the framework of Marxist historical materialism, this article discuss the path and direction of Chinese System Change , we get a new form of government which has a kind of indirect elections and the relative concentration of power in the People's Congress (parliament), and agrees with the principle of separation of powers. it has important reference value for the reform of transition countries

本文以金融系统性风险的同步变量构成的中国金融压力指数为被解释变量，以滞后的宏观经济变量、货币信贷变量、资产价格变量和相关经济大国的宏观经济变量为解释变量，运用逐步回归法建立了金融系统性风险最佳预测方程，从而构建起了金融系统性风险预警的合理、实用的指标体系；并用此最佳预测方程对我国2010年金融系统性风险状况进行了预测。预测结果表明，前三季度我国金融系统性风险呈上升态势，且高于2008年的最高值；第四季度开始，金融系统性风险有下降趋势。 his paper treated the Chinese Financial Stress Index which constructed by synchronized variable of the financial systemic risk as the explained variable, and lagged macroeconomic variables, monetary and credit variables, asset price variables and related foreign countries’ macroeconomic variables as explanatory variables. Using stepwise regression, we established the best financial systemic risk forecast equation and built a reasonable and applied financial systemic risk prediction index system. Using the equation we forecasted the financial systemic risk status of China in 2010. The predicted result is that the financial systemic risk rise in the first three quarter, and is higher than the highest value in 2008; the financial systemic risk goes downward in the fourth quarter.

This paper analyzes the impact of changes in the securities transaction tax (STT) rate on the local A-shares market in China. We find that, on average, a 22-base-point- increase in the STT rate is associated with about a 28% drop in trading volume, while a 17-base-point- reduction in the STT rate is associated with about a 89% increase in trading volume in the Chinese A-shares market. Both the increases and reductions in the STT rate result in a significant increase in the market return volatility. Besides, the increases in the STT rate have mixed effects on market efficiency, either improving or curbing it. The reductions usually either make the market less efficient or have not effect on it. The empirical results together show that levying the STT on trading is not an effective tool to regulate stock market, at least in this emerging market.

本文基于理性预期框架研究了卖空约束对市场质量（包括流动性、私人信息的揭示程度以及波动性）以及资产价格的影响。研究结论表明，与卖空约束不起作用时相比，卖空约束起作用时进入市场的私人信息总量更少，信噪比更低，因而价格的信息含量（或信息效率）更低，这将使得风险资产供给量的不确定性对价格的冲击更大，即相同数量的指令对其价格变化的影响更大，并且均衡价格对私人信息的反应程度更弱，因而卖空约束起作用时的市场质量更差，表现为流动性更差、私人信息揭示程度更低、波动率更高。而随着不受卖空约束而进入市场的知情交易者比例增大，市场质量会逐渐转好。同时，卖空约束起作用时进入市场的私人信息总量减少会导致市场信息不对称程度提高，使得交易者平均意义上要求更高的预期收益率作为补偿，从而最后的均衡资产价格不是高估而是下跌。研究结果为Boehmer et al.（2009）等关于卖空约束的最新实证研究结果提供了较好的理论支撑。

Using a proprietary dataset collected through a survey targeted to VC funds in Mainland China, we examine the impact of constructing VCs’ firms portfolio from industrial organization perspective on investment efficiency, portfolio size and structure of profit sharing. The results indicate that constructing VCs’ firms portfolio from industrial organization perspective improves investment efficiency because it reduces over investment and increases investment return. Moreover, it also further explains the disparities of VC’s portfolio size and structure of profit sharing between Mainland China and Western Countries. Additional tests provide evidence to suggest that the government assistance to VC industry has obvious political objectives in Mainland China.

This paper studies idiosyncratic risk of new ventures. An option-based model of a new venture with multistage investments and jumps is developed. Our model ex- plains (1) why new ventures?idiosyncratic volatility eventually decreases as they clear R&D investment stages and become mature ?rms ?the stage-clearing e¤ect; (2) the negative relation between jumps in value and subsequent idiosyncratic volatility ?the jump e¤ect; (3) the dynamics of idiosyncratic volatility under di¤erent schedules of staged venture capital investments; and (4) the e¤ect of di¤erent schedules of staged investments on ?rm valuation with the presence of jumps. Empirically, we develop a generalized Markov-Switching EARCH model to simultaneously capture structural changes in ?rms?idiosyncratic volatility and the relation between jumps and idiosyn- cratic volatility. Using a hand-collected dataset of early-stage biotech ?rms, we ?nd empirical evidence supporting the jump e¤ect and the stage-clearing e¤ect described by our model.

We empirically examine the role of venture capital in VC-backed listed firms in Mainland China using the data of SME Board of ShenZhen Stock Exchange from June 2004 to June 2007. Contrary to the evidence from the US, we find that the VC-backed firms in Mainland China experience higher underpricing, which is not owing to the lower pricing in the primary market but the investors in the second market are too optimistic about the prospect of the VC-backed firms. In addition, the pre- and post-IPO operating performance of VC-backed firms is significantly better than that of nonVC-backed ones. Our finding supports the monitoring hypothesis that the VC-backed firms perform better than nonVC-backed firms before and after IPO for the monitoring of VC funds. Moreover, it is found that high-reputation VC-backed firms have a better post-IPO operating and market performance compared to low-reputation VC-backed ones, which is consistent with the grandstanding hypothesis proposed by Gompers (1996). However, there is no evidence to support the certification hypothesis proposed by Megginson and Weiss (1990) that VC-backed firms have a lower underpricing in the IPO performance.

Through four rounds of total coverage survey on VC funds in Mainland China , we received 41 VC fund samples. This paper, we empirically test the relation among the size (number) of VC fund portfolios, entrepreneurs’ (enterprise management teams’) profit shares and exogenous factors and find: (1) the portfolio size of a VC fund significantly varies non-monotonically with entrepreneurs’ profit shares, the number of venture firms is first increasing when entrepreneurs’ profit share is low and then decreasing when it is high; (2) entrepreneurs’ profit share is significantly positive related with the number of venture firms in a VC fund; (3) the government-sponsored VCs invest more venture firms but retain less profit shares .

We examine how a firm designs capital allocation and managerial compensation schemes to motivate a privately informed manager to (i) engage in innovative activity to search for, and (ii) guide the firm to invest in, a new investment project. We show that relative to the first-best, the firm allocates too little capital and provides too few incentives for the manager to expend innovative effort; the manager may violate the NPV rule by investing the allocated capital in a project with negative productivity. We provide several novel predictions that help identify firms that are likely to innovate and managers who are likely to follow the NPV rule. We also show that uncertainty and incentive pay can be positively related.

The relationship between capital structure and product market competition is recently a new research field and hot topic in the study of capital structure. Focuses on Chinese state-controlled and private listed companies, this paper concludes that private listed companies have greater competition advantages than the state-controlled listed companies through empirical study of the relationship between capital structure and product market competition. The policy implication of this conclusion is that favorable capital structure helps to improve the corporate governance structure and strengthen the product market competition advantage of the listed companies. To improve the quality of Chinese listed companies, Chinese government is strongly recommended to take powerful measures to promote the process of privatization and economic performance of the economic entities.