After the first index fund launched in 1999, the index fund market has been growing steadily in China. In this paper, we seek to measure and understand the tracking error of China based index funds. The results show that sample index funds exhibit an acceptable level of tracking error in general. Furthermore, by means of decomposition of tracking error variance we find that risk structure of sample funds keeps consistency with financial theory about indexing. While there is an exception such as Hua An MSCI China A share e.g., whole performance of the better run index funds suggests that indexing is practicable under China conditions.

We study the connection between the stock market and the labor market. When aggregate risk premiums are time-varying, predictive variables for market excess returns should forecast longhorizon growth in the marginal bene?t of hiring and thereby long-horizon aggregate employment growth. Consistent with this logic, we document that high values of the risk premiums forecast low payroll growth and increases in unemployment rate in the short run, but high payroll growth and decreases in unemployment rate in the long run. High values of lagged payroll growth and decreases in lagged unemployment rate also forecast low stock market excess returns.

This paper examines the impact of idiosyncratic risk on the cross-section of weekly stock returns from 1963 to 2006. I use an exponential GARCH model to forecast expected idiosyncratic volatility and employ a combination of the size e§ect, value premium, return momentum and short-term reversal to measure relative mispricing. I ?nd that stock returns monotonically increase in idiosyncratic risk for relatively undervalued stocks and monotonically decrease in idiosyncratic risk for relatively overvalued stocks. This phenomenon is robust to various subsamples and industries, and cannot be explained by risk factors or ?rm characteristics. Further, transaction costs, short-sale constraints and information uncertainty cannot account for the role of idiosyncratic risk. Overall, these ?ndings are consistent with the limits of arbitrage arguments and demonstrate the importance of idiosyncratic risk as an arbitrage cost.

The evidence on the relation between idiosyncratic risk and future market return is at odds with the theory in Merton (1987). We argue that this is because conventional idiosyncratic risk measures are too noisy that consequently camou?age the true pricing relation suggested by the theory in empirical tests. To reduce the noise, we employ a random portfolio approach to construct an alternative aggregate idiosyncratic risk measure. Due to a high correlation between the noise components of the conventional idiosyncratic risk measure and our portfolio idiosyncratic risk measure, we include both measures simultaneously in a predictive regression, in which the conventional idiosyncratic risk measure helps to further reduce the noise in our portfolio idiosyncratic risk measure. We ?nd that both variables are signi?cant and jointly predict returns on the market with an adjusted R2 of 2%. Our results are very robust to all conventional control variables, sample periods, the size deciles.

The evidence on the relation between idiosyncratic risk and future market return is at odds with the theory in Merton (1987). We argue that this is because conventional idiosyncratic risk measures are too noisy that consequently camou?age the true pricing relation suggested by the theory in empirical tests. To reduce the noise, we employ a random portfolio approach to construct an alternative aggregate idiosyncratic risk measure. Due to a high correlation between the noise components of the conventional idiosyncratic risk measure and our portfolio idiosyncratic risk measure, we include both measures simultaneously in a predictive regression, in which the conventional idiosyncratic risk measure helps to further reduce the noise in our portfolio idiosyncratic risk measure. We ?nd that both variables are signi?cant and jointly predict returns on the market with an adjusted R2 of 2%. Our results are very robust to all conventional control variables, sample periods, the size deciles

Volatility long memory is a stylized fact that has been documented for a long time. Existing literature have two ways to model volatility long memory: component volatility models and fractionally integrated volatility models. This paper develops a new fractionally integrated GARCH model, and investigates its performance by using the Standard and Poor’s 500 index returns and cross-sectional European option data. The fractionally integrated GARCH model signi?cantly outperforms the simple GARCH(1, 1) model by generating 37% less option pricing errors. With stronger volatility persistence, it also dominates a component volatility model, who has enjoyed a reputation for its outstanding option pricing performance, by generating 15% less option pricing errors. We also con?rm the fractionally integrated GARCH model’s robustness with the latest option prices. This paper indicates that capturing volatility persistence represents a very promising direction for future study.

This study examines for evidence of peer effects in the trading decisions of individual investors from Mainland China, a country whose cultural and social structures are vastly different from those of Western countries. Cultural differences, as widely documented, play a significant role in social interactions and word-of-mouth behavior. In contrast to U.S. studies, we find robust evidence that the trading decisions of Chinese investors are influenced, via word-ofmouth, by those of their peers who maintain brokerage accounts at the same branch, but not by those whose accounts are maintained at another branch located in the same city.

This paper examines the effects of the agency costs on firm value in 156 Chinese publicly listed companies with individual ultimate owners between 2002 and 2007. The ultimate owners’ agency costs, as measured by the divergence between control rights and cash flow rights, are shown to negatively and significantly affect firm value, as measured by the market-to-book ratio of assets (an approximation of Tobin’s Q). As the agency costs grow, the stock returns decrease around the connected party transaction announcements, and firms are more likely to engage in value-destroying connected party transactions. These effects are particularly strong for some types of connected party transactions, notably loan guarantees and direct fund transfers. Further, as the agency costs grow, the firms violate laws more frequently and the nature of legal violations becomes more severe. Evidence from an exogenous policy shock, the non-tradable share reform confirms that higher agency costs cause more unfavorable stock market reactions to connected party transaction announcements.

In this paper we argue that ine? cient bank loans can reduce the value of borrowing ?rms when the expropriation of minority share- holders by controlling shareholders is a major concern. Using data from Chinese ?nancial market, we ?nd that bank loan announcements generate signi?cantly negative abnormal returns to borrowing ?rms. The share devaluation following loan announcements are concentrated in ?rms that are perceived to be more vulnerable to controlling share- holders?expropriation. In addition, we ?nd weak evidence that bank quality mitigates the negative market reactions.

This paper studies the determinants of cash holdings and the marginal value of cash in China’s share-issued privatized firms from 1994 – 2007. We first analyze the effects of firm characteristics on corporate cash holdings and find empirical evidence that is largely consistent with U.S. and other international evidence in previous studies. Specifically, we find that smaller, more profitable and high growth firms hold more cash. Debt and net working capital are negatively related to cash holdings, suggesting that debt and working capital may be treated as cash substitutes. We also find that state ownership is negatively related to cash holdings. Firms with high state ownership are less financially constrained in that they have better access to credit in the mostly state-owned bank lending environment. We further examine the cross-sectional variations in the marginal value of corporate cash holdings. We find that the marginal value of cash declines with higher level of cash and higher level of debt, consistent with evidence in U.S. firms. Our most important finding is that the marginal value of cash declines as the equity ownership retained by the state increases. For the average firm in our sample, the value of an additional dollar is $0.94. An additional dollar is valued $0.33-$0.47 higher in firms with zero percent state ownership than in firms with 50 percent or higher state ownership. This difference is both statistically and economically significant.