对流动性进行衡量是商业银行有效管理流动性风险的前提和基础。在此领域，本文运用用于理解多元随机变量之间关系的统计工具Copula与广义随机占优理论中的高阶ES测度对商业银行流动性风险进行衡量；同时对我国安徽省境内各主要商业银行1997~2006年间的流动性统计数据进行实证分析；以寻求一条提高商业银行流动性风险管理水平的新途径，使得银行监管机构能够更加准确的衡量商业银行的清偿能力。

流动性是市场本身所固有的属性，证券的流动性是指证券的变现能力。在一个流动性好的市场上，交易者能够以较低的交易成本、快速进行大量交易，且不会导致价格发生显著波动。证券市场流动性的大小直接影响证券市场功能（互通有无和价格发现）的实现程度。 流动性风险与流动性并不是同一个概念，它可以理解成由于各资产流动性水平的差异（包含平均流动性水平与流动性变动的不确定成分）而导致的资产持有者在出清资产时由于市场冲击所遭受的资产损失的可能性。相对于流动性，流动性风险这个概念更直观，而且更具有实用性。 一般来说传统度量流动性风险的方法是使用股票的平均流动性水平（即横截面上的风险），近几年在流动性风险的测度上，研究者逐渐考虑到了股票的流动性在时间维上的波动性（即纵向风险），这使得对流动性风险的度量更加符合实际。本文在以上两种流动性风险的基础上建立了包含“横”与“纵”两维上的新的流动性风险测度模型——流动性“成本－风险”矩形和等流动性风险曲线，并按流动性风险的大小对在上海证券交易所上市的107支A股股票进行了排序。 在股票组合的流动性风险的度量上，本文选取了最近比较流行的度量金融时间序列相依关系的方法－Copula技术，这种技术用来描述和分析变量间的相关结构。运用 Copula 理论我们可以构造灵活的多元分布，而且其在刻画不同金融时间序列的尾部相关性——相关性极值(dependent extreme values)方面具有独特的优势，这一点与金融危机来临时各股票流动性间的相关性增强恰好相一致。以基金嘉实增长(070002)2005年6月30日公布的持舱股票为样本（在考虑到数据的完整性后选取其中持股比例最大的五支股票），在股票组合的流动性风险测度上，本文用t分布对各股票的流动性的纵向风险进行拟合，并用多元t－Copula技术（MVT）与Monte Carlo方法对股票组合的流动性风险进行了测度。实证结果表明使用Copula技术与未用Copula技术的流动性风险相比其VaR值较大。

前期研究试图用利率变量来解释股价和汇价联动，但经验分析难以获得证明和支持。随后又有大量文献研究各国股价联动或汇市之间联动，但涉及国家样本太少并且尚未获得一致的结论，难以说明这些结果具有普遍性质。Hyuk Choe et al. (1998)首次揭示了一个事实。那就是本土投资者在危机来临之前的抛售行为快于外国投资者，随后又有大量研究对此进行证明，但都是局限于从股市到股市的研究，极少涉及汇市与两国股市的联动。本研究采用了MGARCH模型（三元GARCH）证明了汇市与两国股市的联动。研究领域不再仅限于从股市到股市，而且两者之间的汇市也受其波及。本研究的结果证明：金融市场规模的不对称性会影响联动出现的显著性；地域和规模越接近，三者之间的联动效应就越强。这也证明了亚洲金融市场联动具有地域规模特征。

随着我国经济开放度的提高，内部均衡和外部均衡目标相互冲突的情况越来越多。本文以西方20世纪50年代开始发展起来的政策配合理论为工具，分析了亚洲金融危机后我国政策配合的实际情况与效果，得出：在我国汇率事实上是固定汇率的情况下，稳健的货币政策配合积极的财政政策基本实现了调节内外部失衡的目标。最后，针对政策配合中存在的问题，提出应让汇率杠杆发挥更大作用，以增强货币政策自主性，减少对财政政策依赖。 Abstract: Following the increase of openness in China, the conflicts between the targets of interior equilibrium and exterior equilibrium are more and more frequent. With the instrument of the theory of policy mix which developed since 1950s’ in the Occident, we analyze the practice and effect of policy mix in China after the Asian financial crisis. Under the condition of virtual fixed foreign exchange regime, we conclude that the China’s policy mix between the prudent monetary policy and the proactive fiscal policy realize the most task of regulation of interior-exterior disequilibrium. In the end, according to the problem during the policy mix, we suggest that we should let foreign exchange lever play more role to increase the independence of monetary policy, decrease the dependence on fiscal policy.

金融约束是金融发展理论中较前沿的问题，其理论对发展中国家金融发展有重要的借鉴价值。本文简要介绍了金融约束中租金的作用，然后运用金融约束这一框架分别分析了租金在全球化和不同所有制结构条件下的流动，得出了金融约束将受到甚至变形的结论，并结合我国金融发展的实际情况，提出了一些建议。 Abstract: Financial restraint is a frontier issue in the theory of finance development; it has important use for reference during the process of financial development in the developing countries. Firstly, this paper present the function of rent in the financial restraint, then we use this framework to analyze the rent flow under the globalization and different ownership structure respectively, find that financial restraint will be weakened, even distorted. In the end, we provide some suggestions combined with the situation of China.

摘要 随着我国进入WTO，我国将逐步取消在各方面对外资银行的限制，并在2006年12月11日前对其实现全面的国民待遇,外资银行将成为我国金融市场上重要的一部分.作为我国银行业监管当局,银监会将接受更加严峻的考验.简单的区域监管将无法防御国际间快速传播的风险，这就需要对外资银行总行进行监管。通过对外资银行总行的监管,可以避免部分银行不良资产比率较高、外资银行存款准备金的计提方式的漏洞、外资银行的操作风险、外资法人机构风险突出、业务创新加快的风险等诸多风险。当前，我国还没有对这种监管方式进行完整的规定。本文于法规和具体操作两方面进行全面的阐述，对于该监管方式的具体运做进行了明确的表达。本文还论述了该监管方式的优劣点，通过分析说明运用这种监管为我国带来得好处要远远大于其所带来得坏处。总之，对外资银行总行的监管是我国应对新的银行监管形势的一个重要方法。 Abstract Being a member of WTO, our country will progressively cancel the various restrictions of foreign banks. And before 11st December 2006, the comprehensive national treatment will become true. The foreign banks are going to be one of the most essential parts in our bank industry, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has to accept more severer test. The simple area supervision cannot defend the risks which have been spread fast in the world. In that case, the head offices of foreign bank should be supervised. It can avoid the high rates of harmful property, the loopholes of deposit planning money in foreign banks, the operation risk, foreign capital corporation having more risk and the risk of prompting business creation. In nowadays, we have not perfect rules in such area. This article discussed both statutes and specific operations, especially emphasized the specific operations of supervision. In the article, the author also discussed the advantages and disadvantages of supervision, and explained the advantages of supervision were far more than the disadvantages. To sum up, supervising the head offices of foreign bank is an important way for us to deal with the new situation of bank supervision.

资本资产定价模型（CAPM）被认为是金融市场现代价格理论的支柱之一，自从创立以来，其在各个领域得到了广泛的应用。然而，长期以来对CAPM的实证检验也争议不断，检验结果毁誉参半。本文评述了以往对CAPM的实证研究，并采用上海股票市场90家上市公司的数据作为样本对CAPM中的贝塔系数的波动状况进行了实证检验，结果发现所有股票贝塔系数的波动率都是显著异于零的，即贝塔系数在不同的时期会发生变化。实证分析中如果忽略了这一点，必将导致对CAPM检验失效。 Capital Asset Pricing Model is the backbone of the modern asset pricing theory of the financial market. Since it appeared, it is widely used in many fields. However, there are many disputations about the empirical tests of CAPM. Someone support it, but someone not. The authors review the past empirical tests of CAPM, and analyze 90 public companies in Shanghai security market. The conclusion helps to explain why some empirical tests of CAPM in the past fail.

The paper take notes for “Equilibrium Points in N-person Games” and draw the conclusion that the Asset-pricing-model should reflect the investors’ strategies and payoff functions, and then we give the rudiment of the model.

We present a model in which informational economies of scope that provide a cost advantage to universal banks oering “one-stop” shopping for lending and underwriting services also enable these intermediaries to “lock in” their clients’ subsequent business. This (limited) market power of universal banks reduces their incentive, relative to that of investment banks, to undertake costly eort in underwriting their clients’ securities. The consequent reduction in firms’ likelihood of successful security issues with universal bank underwriters prevents these intermediaries from using their scope economies to completely dominate their markets. Our analysis identifies economy, intermediary, and firm characteristics that motivate either the integration or segmentation of underwriting and bank lending. Our results also have implications for financial innovation and capital market development in markets characterized by the integration of financial services. Some of our empirical implications have not been tested; others can be compared with findings in Kroszner and Rajan (1994).

A substantial literature in institutional herding examines reasons for and evidence of correlated trading across institutional investors, but little has been written about the extent to which individual investor trading is correlated or why. We document that the trading of individuals is highly correlated and surprisingly persistent. Furthermore, we find that the systematic trading of individual investors is driven by their own decisions―trades they initiated―rather than by passive reactions to institutional herding. We discuss why this correlation is unlikely to stem from the same motivations as institutional herding. Correlated trading by individual is a necessary condition for the trading biases of individual investors to affect asset prices, since the trades of any particular individual are likely to be small. The preferences for buying some stocks while selling others must be shared by many individual investors if these preferences are to affect prices. We analyze trading records for 66,465 households at a large national discount broker between January 1991 and November 1996 and 665,533 investors at a large retail broker between January 1997 and June 1999. Using a variety of empirical approaches, we document that the trading of individuals is more coordinated than one would expect by mere chance. For example, if individual investors are net buyers of a stock this month, they are likely to be net buyers of the stock next month. In additional analyses, we present four stylized facts about the trading of individual investors: (1) they buy stocks with strong past returns; (2) they also sell stocks with strong past returns, though this relation is stronger than that for buys at short horizons (one to two quarters), but weaker at long horizons (up to 12 quarters); (3) their buying is more concentrated in fewer stocks than selling; and (4)they are net buyers of stocks with unusually high trading volume.