摘要：一国经常项目赤字只有获得足够资金支持才能维持，基于此本文将美国经常项目赤字可持续性问题转化为能否稳定地获得外源性融资的问题。文章从供给和需求角度探讨了美国与东亚之间特殊融资安排的形成与稳定性问题，并用两种方法估计了美国经常项目赤字可持续的必要条件及调整的时间。本文认为国际金融体系下美元霸权和东亚国家内需不足导致了东亚国家的资金供给，美国消费主导型经济导致经常项目赤字进而引致资金的需求，供求之间能达到短期均衡。但是由于制度安排的缺陷，这种特殊的融资安排长期必然走向崩溃。届时美国赤字调整不可避免，中国应采取措施方法赤字调整带来的风险。 Abstract: The current account deficits are sustainable only if it was adequately financed. On this basis, this paper has translated the problem concerning the sustainability of current account deficits into the question of stability of outside financing. Then, our paper discuss the special financing arrangement between East Asia and US, hence after, we further discuss the necessary conditions for the “sustainability” and time to adjust deficits. This paper justified that: East Asia becomes the supplier of financing because of the dollar hegemony under the absent of international financing system and lack of inner demand, US become the demander of financing for sake of the demand-led growth. The demand and supply will reach an equilibrium in short run, but the special financing arrangement dooms to be collapsed for short institutional arrangements, the US has to adjust its currents account deficits passively.

中央银行独立性问题在现代宏观经济研究特别是货币政策研究中备受关注，其与宏观经济指标的相互作用很大程度上决定着货币政策的运行效果。就此问题，本文首先介绍了西方学者对央行独立性的不同定义及研究的理论基础，随后从理论和实证两个角度分析中央银行独立性同宏观经济运行之间的关系，最后本文得出如下结论：中央银行独立性与通货膨胀之间的关系比较明确，与其他变量之间的关系仍不能明确界定；中央银行独立性的提升确实能有效降低通货膨胀率，但是抑制通货膨胀不能单独地成为支持中央银行独立性的理论基础；是否提高中央银行独立性应该结合其与物价、就业、经济增长的关系； The Central Bank Independent (CBI) issue has drawn more attention in macroeconomic research, especially is in the monetary policy research .To a large extent, it’s interaction with macroeconomic goals (price, economic growth, employment) mutually plays a remarkable role on the effect of monetary policy. On this question, this article first introduced the western scholar’s different definition on central bank independent and the theoretical basis of it. Then, we analyses the relationship between Central Bank independence and macroscopic economic performance theoretical and empirical angle. Finally we drawn draws the following conclusions: The relations Between the Central Bank independence and the inflation is quite explicit, but we are not clear about it’s relation with other variables such as growth、employment、deficits; Increasing Central Bank independent can effectively reduce the inflation rate, but “cut down” inflation cannot alone become the support for Central Bank independence; Whether or not to enhances the Central Bank independence should take in account it’s relations with the price, the employment, the economy grows; we should care about the “stationary” of variable when dealing with time-series data, otherwise the conclusion maybe less in accuracy and credibility;

内容提要：本文在介绍泰勒规则产生、内涵、发展的基础上，利用Lawrence模型将汇率因素引入，构建了开放经济条件下的前瞻性泰勒规则。实证结果表明：泰勒规则能够为中国货币政策提供一个很好的参照系；相对于物价稳定目标，央行更关注经济增长；将微观主体的预期和汇率因素引入到货币政策时，央行对利率的敏感性增强；继续推动利率和汇率体制改革能更有效地提高泰勒规则的解释力；“前瞻性泰勒规则”能提高中国货币政策透明度； Abstract: This paper introduce the origination、connotation and development of Taylor’s rule. On this basis, we then contrast the forward looking Taylor’s rule in an open economy by employing a model from Lawrence (1999).The empirical analysis indicates that: Taylor’s rule provides us a frame of reference in policy making; Central bank prefer “economic growth” to “price stability”; when considering the effect of public expectation and exchange rate, central bank pay more attention to price stability; exchange rate and interest rate regime reformation would increase the explanation of Taylor’s rule; the forward looking Taylor’s rule could enhance the transparency of monetary policy.

内容提要: 本文针对近年来我国房地产市场价格持续攀升但市场需求不降反升、银行信贷资金迅速向房地产业集中以及房地产市场发展与经济增长的作用等问题，以全国和各省、市、自治区的面板数据，进行了实证分析。分析结果显示，我国房地产市场供给约束问题非常严重，尤其是考虑到居民收入增长因素后，房地产市场的供求矛盾十分突出；银行房地产开发贷款和个人住房贷款强有力地支撑了房地产市场的供求；房地产市场的发展也拉动了经济的增长，但这一作用没有我们想象的大。因此，目前我国针对房地产市场的宏观调控和各项监管措施，都应该从供求两方面出发，在金融等政策上要保持连续性，并加强制度建设，更好地发挥市场机制的作用。 Abstract: Recent years, with the rising price, the housing demands also rise quickly, which is strange to the common sense of economics. In addition, the relationship between banking sector and housing industry has become more and close, and the growth of housing industry pull the economic growth dramatically. Based on the panel data of the nation and provinces, we try an empirical study on the topics above. The empirical results show that at least in the nowadays China’s market, one of the most sever problem in the real estate market is the constraints of the housing supply compared to the demand if we consider the effects of the resid ents’income growth. Bank loans are maybe the most effective factor pulling the housing industry growth, both on the supply side and the demand. To our surprise, the effect of housing consumption on the economic growth is less than we have assumed, considering the cyclical changes of the economy. . So we draw the followed policy implications in the further macroeconomic managements: we must take the measures directly to both the supply and the demand sides, keep the policies’ continuity, strengthen the institutional progress and make the market mechanism more effective.

College Students’ credit in loan has become the focus of the authority of universities and commercial banks. It is therefore very imperative to establish the appraisal system on the credit of college students and it is pretty important and urgent for the business growth, decrease of risks. In the light of experience of developed countries in college students’ loan and personal consumption loan, the paper aims to design an appraisal system that fits China’s situation well

在当前国内外有关中国汇率制度的讨论中，一些研究者依据货币政策独立性、汇率稳定和完全的资本流动不可能同时成立的“不可能三角”命题，预测中国汇率制度的未来走向。本文通过对蒙代尔-弗莱明模型和多恩布什汇率超调模型的分析，揭示一国货币金融制度选择不是面临货币政策独立性、汇率稳定与完全的资本流动的“三难选择”，而是面对只要是开放经济，就会有货币政策独立性的缺失的“开放经济两难选择”，所以货币政策独立性不能作为汇率制度选择的参照标准。作者强调实行固定汇率制度还是浮动汇率制度的选择是一种长期安排，不能依据短期的政策表现来决定取舍，而应该考虑在相当长的历史时期中，实行固定汇率制度还是浮动汇率制度更有利于经济的持续增长。

Abstract: In this paper, we assume the R&D research for new products and new business models of an entrepreneur will get some cash-flow in the future. And because of the patent protection, the entrepreneur will become a monopolist in that defined market. The successful R&D research represents the growth value for the entrepreneur. We assume that the value of growth is the value of the entrepreneur. The total market value of entrepreneur can be understood as a real growth option plus a discounted real exchange option. The first time in the theory, this paper gets the formula of the real compound option under three stochastic parameters. 关键词：创业企业，增长价值，定价，复合实物期权 Keywords: entrepreneur, growth value, pricing, compound real option

Until recently, trading in Chinese markets was fully segmented―B-shares for foreign investors and A-shares for domestic investors. The fact that B-shares trade at a discount is a puzzle, since comparable markets overwhelmingly show premiums that are easily explained by international asset pricing models. The two most common explanations for this puzzle are that domestic investors are (i) better-informed and (ii) face lower costs of liquidity. The evidence, however, is inconclusive and relies on poor proxies. Based on as of yet unused trade and quote data, we explore direct measures of both information and liquidity using a spread decomposition model. We reject the liquidity-based explanation and find considerable support for betterinformed domestic investors. This creates an empirical basis for recent equilibrium models that rely on asymmetric information to explain China’s strong growth in spite of poor property rights.

This paper examines the optimal path of dividend policy adjustments for a growth company facing the likely threat of takeover. Departing from the common framework of inefficient managers resisting takeover attempts, the formal analysis here focuses on defensive payout strategy of value-maximizing management under the circumstances of random stock market valuation errors, and the bidders’ perceived synergistic gains. A dynamic model, incorporating acquisition activity stochastically, is formulated for a growth firm drawing funds from both internal and external sources. An optimal “bang-bang” reinvestment strategy is derived with control theory, and it is found to be consistent with the firm’s objective of stock-value-maximization. It is also shown theoretically that an immediate threat of takeover shortens managerial planning horizon. The model provides an explanation of dividend adjustment behavior observed in growth firms, and offers an insight into the impact of anti-takeover costs on the firm’s value over time.

How corporate growth affects the choice between relationship-based debt and public debt remains an unsettled issue in the literature. For high-growth firms, the banking relationship mitigates asset-substitution and underinvestment problems due to debt financing. Close relationships, however, work against funding competition and facilitate holdup behavior by banks. This paper suggests an effective mechanism for high-growth firms, namely competition from equity, to curb banks’ rent extraction when public debt becomes more costly. According to the generalized Myers-Majluf view in the recent literature, new equity issues by high-growth firms actually reduce or even reverse the adverse-selection discount because asymmetric information about these firms’ valuations arise largely from growth rather than from assets-in-place. Our evidence from Japanese data for 1983 to 1997 shows that the relation between loan-to-debt ratio and growth, initially significantly negative, is indeed reversed toward the high end of growth spectrum and turns significantly positive. Consistent with our explanation, fast-growing high-flyers raise more new equity than do other firms. These results not only confirm the existence of both costs and benefits of monitored debt, but also explain why high-growth firms enjoy the benefits without fearing holdup behavior by banks.