Can fully agentic AI nowcast stock returns? We deploy a state-of-the-art Large Language Model to evaluate the attractiveness of each Russell 1000 stock each trading day, starting in April 2025 when AI web interfaces enabled real-time search. Our data contribution is unique along three dimensions. First, the nowcasting framework is completely out-of-sample and free of look-ahead bias by construction: predictions are collected at the current edge of time, ensuring the AI has no knowledge of future outcomes. Second, this temporal design is irreproducible once the information environment passes. Third, our framework is fully agentic: we do not feed the model curated news or disclosures; it autonomously searches the web, filters sources, and synthesises information into quantitative predictions. We find that AI possesses genuine stock-selection ability, but that its predictive power is concentrated in identifying future winners. A daily value-weighted portfolio of the 20 highestranked stocks earns a Fama-French five-factor plus momentum alpha of 19.4 basis points and an annualised Sharpe ratio of 2.68 over April 2025–March 2026. The same portfolio accumulates roughly 49.0% cumulative return, versus 21.2% for the Russell 1000 benchmark. The strategy is economically implementable: the average bid-ask spread of the daily Top-20 portfolio is 1.79 basis points, less than 10% of gross daily alpha. However, the signal remains asymmetric. Bottom-ranked portfolios generally exhibit alphas close to zero, while the strongest predictive content sits in the extreme top ranks. Delayed-entry tests further show that predictability does not vanish after a single day; rather, the signal remains positive over a broad window of subsequent entry dates, consistent with slow information diffusion rather than a fleeting overnight anomaly.

This paper studies how mutual fund managers update their beliefs as macroeconomic conditions change. Using regulator-mandated reports from Chinese mutual funds, we measure the intensity of belief updating from year-over-year changes in stated outlooks and decompose those updates into macro and micro themes. We show that belief updating is state-contingent: funds with more intensive belief updating shift their narratives toward macro (micro) topics during recessions (expansions) and concurrently reduce (increase) procyclical stock exposures and on-site company visits. This state-contingent belief updating predicts superior performance when matched to prevailing economic conditions, with macro-oriented updates paying off mainly for high-updating funds in recessions and micro-oriented updates paying off more broadly in expansions. Investors recognize this signal of skill, allocating greater flows to these funds, especially when past returns are less informative. Finally, belief updating is stronger for younger managers and for funds from newer, smaller families, consistent with signaling under career and competitive pressures.

I study whether workplace smoking bans change how bond investors assess firm risk. Using staggered state adoption across U.S.\ states from 2002 to 2012 and a heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences design, I find that smoking bans increase six-month cumulative abnormal bond returns by about 90 basis points. The average effect is only the starting point: the response is much larger for speculative-grade issuers and firms with low interest coverage, indicating that investors reprice the policy where downside operating risk matters most for debt values. Mechanism tests point most clearly to improved operating performance and lower worker turnover, while broader financial-constraint, liquidity, and duration channels remain close to zero. Alternative estimators, placebo diagnostics, and geographic spillover checks all support the interpretation that workplace smoking bans trigger targeted credit-risk reassessment rather than a generic regional shock. My findings connect public-health regulation to capital-market outcomes and show how non-financial policy shocks can reveal economically meaningful information about corporate credit risk.

We introduce a real-time dispersion measure based on cross-sectional stock returns explicitly designed to capture retail-driven speculative episodes. Elevated return dispersion effectively identifies periods characterized by intensified retail investor trading behaviors, driven by salience, diagnostic expectations, and extrapolative beliefs. During these high-dispersion states, momentum strategies collapse, and short-term reversals become dominant. Conditioning momentum strategies on our dispersion measure resolves the longstanding puzzle of missing momentum in retail-intensive markets such as China, substantially enhancing profitability. A dynamic rotation strategy between momentum and short-term reversal portfolios guided by dispersion states achieves annualized Sharpe ratios nearly double those of static approaches. Extending our analysis internationally, we employ Google search trends as proxies for retail investor attention, confirming that dispersion robustly predicts momentum and reversal returns globally. Our findings underscore the behavioral channel through which retail-driven speculation conditions momentum dynamics, providing clear implications for dynamic portfolio management strategies.

This paper examines how China allocates its newly accumulated foreign assets by analyzing the long-run relationship between net national savings, foreign exchange reserves, and outward direct investment (ODI). Using quarterly data from 2005 to 2023, a cointegrated vector autoregression framework shows that ODI—particularly through state-owned enterprises— has emerged as an important channel for recycling national savings abroad. Although short-run reserve fluctuations persist, sustained reserve accumulation has become less central to China’s external asset management. This study contributes to the literature by highlighting the institutional role of state ownership in shaping cross-border investment patterns and by identifying ODI as a strategic mechanism for channeling national savings internationally. The findings shed new light on China’s evolving approach to external asset allocation and its broader economic and geopolitical implications.

This study examines the economic consequences of China’s Three-Red-Lines policy, introduced in 2021 to cap real estate developers' leverage by imposing strict thresholds on debt ratios and liquidity. Developers breaching these thresholds experienced sharp declines in financing, land acquisitions, and financial performance. Privately owned developers(POE) are hit harder than state-owned firms (SOE), with larger drops in sales and higher default risk. Using granular project-level data, we show that the policy reduces developer sales primarily by curtailing new-project supply: breached developers launch fewer projects. On the demand side, homebuyers reallocate purchases from privately owned developers to SOEs, further widening the POE-SOE gap. The policy also reduced local governments’ land-transfer revenues and increased reliance on local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) for land purchases. These LGFV-acquired parcels exhibit very low subsequent development rates, which may increase local governments’off-balance-sheet debt risks.

In the Chinese context, the term “overseas” refers to countries and regions outside the sovereignty and jurisdiction of China. Overseas listing is an important strategy for firms to integrate into global capital markets and enhance their corporate investment efficiency. Using data from 600 Chinese companies listed exclusively overseas and 860 domestically listed firms for the period 2009–2023, this study analyzes the impact of overseas listing on corporate investment efficiency using empirical research methods, underlying mediating mechanisms, and the moderating role of economic policy uncertainty. The findings show that overseas listing improves Chinese firms’ investment efficiency. Compared to listing on the United States securities market (Nshares), listing on the Hong Kong securities market, (H-shares) has a pronounced effect on enhancing investment efficiency. Enhanced information disclosure quality improves the investment efficiency of Chinese enterprises listed overseas. Economic policyuncertainty can strengthen the positive impact of overseas listing on corporate investment efficiency. This study shows that overseas listing improves investment efficiency of firms in developing countries and offers new insights into advancing micro-level opening-up in these countries.

Purpose: High investment efficiency is a key dimension of high-quality enterprise development. As critical nodes embedded in supply chain networks, corporate investment behaviors are profoundly shaped by the structural characteristics of their supply chains. Concentrated supply chain configuration, as one of the core structural features, has not yet been systematically examined in terms of its impact on corporate investment efficiency and the underlying mechanisms, leaving an important research gap. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a sample of China’s A-share listed enterprises from 2007 to 2023, this study empirically examines the effect of concentrated supply chain configuration on corporate investment efficiency. Findings: First, concentrated supply chain configuration exerts a significant inhibitory effect on corporate investment efficiency, a conclusion that remains robust after a series of tests. Second, mechanism tests indicate that this influence operates primarily through three channels: exacerbating financing constraints, crowding out working capital, and deteriorating the information environment. Third, heterogeneity analysis shows that both supplier concentration and customer concentration inhibit investment efficiency, with the latter having a slightly stronger negative effect. The adverse impact is more pronounced in over-investing enterprises, non-state-owned enterprises, smaller firms, and those in growth or decline stages. Furthermore, regional factor market development, external market power, and internal control quality are found to effectively mitigate the negative effect of concentrated supply chain configuration on corporate investment efficiency. Originality: This study extends the research on determinants of corporate investment efficiency from a supply chain structure perspective, providing new theoretical insights and empirical evidence for understanding corporate investment behavior in China.

The governmental governance environment significantly influences real corporate investment. Based on the data of listed A-share enterprises from 2010-2020,we adopt a heterogeneous timing difference-in-differences method to examine the impact of Open government data (OGD) on real corporate investment by leveraging the launch of OGD platforms. It is found that OGD significantly promotes real corporate investment. This conclusion remains robust after a series of tests for robustness and endogeneity, including parallel trend, placebo, heterogeneity treatment effect, and replacing variable. The analysis of the impact mechanism reveals that OGD influences real corporate investment by reducing enterprise uncertainty and alleviating financing constraint. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that OGD exerts a more pronounced investment promotion effect on non-state-owned enterprises, without political affiliations, regions characterized by intense government intervention, and areas exhibiting low social trust. This study contributes both conceptual insights for advancing the real economy with higher quality and practical recommendations to support the modernization of national governance structures and administrative effectiveness.

This paper examines the role of institutional investors in shaping pricing dynamics within China’s nascent infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trust market. Introduced in 2021, China’s REITs have rapidly gained policy and market attention as a tool for financing large-scale infrastructure projects through equity-based securitisation. Unlike mature REIT markets, China’s infrastructure REITs are characterised by a high concentration of institutional ownership dominated by state-owned financial institutions. Using panel data on first 9 REITs from May 2021 to April 2024, we find that institutional ownership significantly boosts the premium to net asset value. This effect operates primarily through two channels: reduced market liquidity and increased idiosyncratic return volatility, likely reflecting institutions’ trading activity and informational advantages. The findings highlight how institutional capital serves as a confidence signal in China’s emerging REITs ecosystem. The study contributes to the global REITs literature by offering insights from an emerging market context and provides policy recommendations to guide China’s REITs market development toward greater transparency, diversity, and long-term resilience.