• 详情 基于CVaR的基金业绩测度研究
    基于条件在险价值(CVaR)建立新的基金业绩测度指标,该指标在理论上拓展了经典的夏普比率。在正态分布下,该指标是夏普比率的增函数,二者对于基金业绩排名是一致的;在非正态分布下,该指标克服夏普比率没考虑高阶矩、不满足随机占优单调性的缺陷,能给出更为合理的基金业绩排名。利用方差法、经验分布法和核估计法对新指标进行估计,蒙特卡洛模拟结果表明,方差法仅在正态分布下有效,在非正态分布下其估计结果存在系统性偏差;同属于非参数方法的经验分布法和核估计方法在任意分布下都具有大样本性质且估计精度相当。最后运用新指标对我国开放式基金的业绩进行测算和排名,结果显示:当各基金的偏度系数和峰度系数差异较小时,夏普比率和新指标给出的基金业绩排名基本一致;而当各基金的偏度系数和峰度系数差异较大时,二者给出的基金业绩排名差异较大,新指标因考虑了高阶矩信息给出的排名更为合理,这与理论预期是一致的
  • 详情 中国私募基金经理是否具有择时能力?
    本研究对中国股票型私募基金经理的市场择时能力进行了检验,即这些私募基金经理是否具有根据市场情况来调整基金资产组合的市场敞口的能力。相比与公募基金,私募基金的策略和资产组合的调整更加灵活,因此更有利于体现基金经理的择时能力。我们从收益择时、波动择时和流动择时三个维度来对中国的私募基金经理的择时能力进行检验。研究发现,私募基金经理具有一定的收益择时和流动择时能力,但是很少有基金经理具有波动择时能力。即一些私募基金经理可以通过预测市场收益和市场的流动性,来相应调整资产组合的市场敞口,但很少有基金经理可以通过预测市场波动来调整基金的市场风险敞口。同时,我们对回归结果进行了Bootstrap分析,结果表明这些显著的择时能力并不是由于运气因素所带来的。最后,我们也对结果进行了稳健性的检验。我们的研究对于了解中国私募基金经理的择时能力具有一定的帮助,同时,有助于加深理解市场的收益、波动性和流动性在资产管理和投资决策中的作用和重要性
  • 详情 How Smart is Smart Money? Evidence from Mutual Funds’ Exposure on Corporate Misconduct
    We examine how mutual funds’ trading and performance respond to corporate misconduct. We exploit a combined dataset of corporate misconduct and holding information of mutual funds and show that mutual funds tend to sell and buy more stocks of corporations with misconduct. Mutual funds with more misconduct exposure perform significantly worse than those with less misconduct exposure. Specifically, the top quintile portfolio of funds with the highest levels of misconduct exposure underperforms the bottom quintile by 1.57% to 1.97% on an annualized basis. Findings show that mutual funds undergo significant losses by investing in misconduct firms, which is more likely to be motivated by overconfidence than limited recognition.
  • 详情 Dancing with the Elephant: Do Government-launched Corporate Social Responsibility Activities Create Value?
    We investigate a prevalent yet overlooked form of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities, i.e., government-launched CSR. Contrary to the conventional view that mandatory CSR destroys firm value, we document a positive market reaction to governmentlaunched CSR activities that aim to alleviate poverty. Analyses of operating performance and firm value confirm the positive impact. Further analyses suggest that while governmentlaunched CSR intervenes the operation of the firm by reducing the operating efficiency, firms enjoy higher operating margin, take more market share and save selling expense and labor cost by engaging their operations with the poverty-stricken areas. Participating firms are also rewarded more government subsidy. We further find that government-launched CSR activities achieve the stated objective of poverty relief. However, it also crowds out the firms' investment in other CSR activities. Overall, the evidence indicates that government-launched CSR has economy-wide implications than the traditional CSR.
  • 详情 Detecting Short-selling in US-listed Chinese Firms Using Ensemble Learning
    This paper uses ensemble learning to build a predictive model to analyze the short selling mechanism of short institutions. We demonstrate the value of combining domain knowledge and machine learning methods in financial market. On the basis of the benchmark model, we use three input data: stock price, financial data and textual data and we employ one of the most powerful machine learning methods, ensemble learning, rather than the commonly used method of logistic regression. In specific methods, we use LSTM-AdaBoost and CART-AdaBoost for model prediction. The results show that the model we train have strong prediction ability for short-selling and the company' s financial text data is more likely to have an impression of whether it would be shorted or not.
  • 详情 Dynamic Correlation and Spillover Effect between International Fossil Energy Markets and China's New Energy Market
    The existing literature mainly documents the relationship between international and domestic fossil energy markets; however, empirical evidence of the dynamic relationships between fossil energy market and new energy market is lacking. This paper combines TGARCH model and copula model to explore the dynamic linkages and spillover effects between international fossil energy (crude oil, coal and natural gas) markets and China's new energy market using daily data from 4 January 2012 to 3 September 2018. The empirical results indicate that fossil energy returns and new energy returns are positive related over time. And the crude oil returns and new energy returns, as well as the coal returns and new energy returns have lower tail dependence, while there is upper tail dependence structure between natural gas returns and new energy returns. Furthermore, the extreme upside and downside risk spillover from international fossil energy markets to China's new energy market is asymmetric. Among the spillover effects, the downward risk spillover of crude oil market exerts the most significant impact on China's new energy market.
  • 详情 绿色债券增进绿色技术创新研究
    发展绿色金融旨在促进企业生产方式低碳转型,尤其支持企业开展绿色创新。 本文以绿色债券为例,利用双重差分模型研究了绿色金融对企业绿色创新的支持效应。研究发现,发行绿色债券显著提升了企业绿色创新能力, 这主要体现在绿色发明专利和绿色实用新型专利两个方面, 其中发行绿色债券对绿色发明专利的促进作用具有更好的动态持续性。 异质性检验发现,国有企业、非重污染企业、 无第三方认证企业、专利密集型企业在发行绿色债券后绿色创新表现更加积极。 进一步分析发现, 发行绿色债券对企业绿色创新的促进作用源于资源效应和监督效应两个机制。 本文最直接的政策含义是,为企业实现环境保护与竞争力提升的“双赢”和加快发展绿色金融促进企业绿色创新进而更好地实现绿色经济发展提供了有益的理论借鉴。
  • 详情 Controlling Shareholder Stock Pledge, Aggravated Expropriation and Corporate Acquisitions
    We examine the effects of controlling shareholder stock pledge on corporate acquisition decisions and associated performance. Consistent with our aggravated expropriation hypothesis, we find that pledging firms in China initiate more takeovers, but these acquisitions conducted by pledging firms experience lower announcement returns. We adopt the difference in differences and the instrumental variable approaches to establish causality. Channel tests further reveal that pledging acquirers overpay for the deals and are more likely to be involved in related party transactions. Cross-sectionally, we find that the relations between the share pledge and corporate acquisitiveness and returns are more pronounced for non-SOEs and firms with high-level excess cash. Lastly, we document that pledging acquirers underperform in the long-run in terms of lower ROAs and a greater likelihood of goodwill impairment. Overall, our findings indicate that controlling shareholders increasingly expropriate minority shareholders through self-serving corporate takeovers after the stock pledge.
  • 详情 Acquisition Performance Commitment and Earnings Management
    This paper examines the association between acquisition performance commitment and earnings management in an emerging market where investor protection mechanisms are not well established. Based on a sample of acquisition transactions by listed firms in China during 2008-2017, we find evidence that firms committed to certain performance targets in acquisition transactions tend to engage in earnings management to meet their commitments. This phenomenon is more pronounced at the later stage of the commitment period. Further, the positive relation between performance commitment and earnings management is attenuated by a stronger governance structure. Finally, we find firms that managed to just meet performance targets experience worsened accounting-based and market-based performances and higher probability of goodwill impairments immediately after the commitment period. This paper contributes to the acquisition literature by providing evidence from an emerging market of post-contractual opportunistic behavior.
  • 详情 逆周期投资的风险控制:投前筛选与投后风控——基于18个AMC救助困境企业案例的扎根理论分析
    救助财务困境企业有助于恢复市场微观主体活力,进而保持金融和社会稳定。但区别于银行和风险投资机构所开展的顺周期投资,困境企业救助属于逆周期投资,具有更高的行为风险和经营风险。金融资产管理公司作为困境企业救助专业性机构,如何开展投资前的救助对象筛选与投资后的风险控制,目前学术界对该问题尚缺乏研究。本文基于金融资产管理公司主导的18家财务困境企业救助的多案例编码研究及典型交易模式分析,构建了财务困境救助的投前企业筛选与投后风险分配的理论模型。本文发现,投前企业筛选主要识别抵偿价值、经营恢复价值和重组价值,投后风险控制关注行为风险抑制和经营风险分配。本文研究成果对逆周期投资价值识别、风险识别与控制等研究做出了重要的贡献,对社会机构参与困境企业救助有实践意义。