• 详情 基于真实交易盈余管理的股权制衡治理效应研究
    公司治理中的一些因素会对公司管理层进行应计盈余管理起到限制作用,其是否也会影响公司管理层进行真实交易盈余管理尚未有充足的证据。因此,本文就股权制衡这一治理结构安排与公司管理层进行的真实交易盈余管理程度进行实证检验,发现股权制衡能在一定程度上有效地降低管理层在产品成本方面的真实交易盈余管理和整体调节利润的操纵程度。本文对股权制衡会抑制真实交易盈余管理研究结论提供了新的解释,为进一步认识股权制衡的公司治理功效提供了支持性证据。
  • 详情 因子分析和聚类分析在银行选址中的应用——以建设银行衡水分行为例
    摘要: 本文通过定性和定量相结合的方法,对商业银行网点布局选址进行考察,试图寻找网点布局优化方案和途径。基本过程是:选取10项影响因素指标,对建设银行衡水分行市区16个网点进行因子分析和聚类分析,在分析的基础上得出结论。研究结果表明:两种分类方法都能作为判定网点布局效果质量的依据,因子分析通过将网点的选择指标归纳为营销因子、竞争因子、地理因子和经济因子等4个综合变量,为商业银行优化网点资源配置提供了科学的方法和依据。
  • 详情 Mathematical Analysis on Innovation of Address Selection of Commercial Bank Outlets
    Abstract: Mathematical analysis has been introduced into the analysis and decision of commercial bank outlets, by which ten index of influencing factors are selected to establish the analysis of outlets distribution and decision-making model; Hengshui Branch of Chinese Construction Bank in Hebei is taken as a sample, in which the factor analysis and cluster analysis are employed for the research and analysis, therefore, a breakthrough has been achieved in the thought of commercial banks and approaches of analysis and decision-making. The research in the paper shows that the mathematical analysis can completely provide scientific data for the distribution of commercial bank outlets; the division will provide evidence for analysis and decision-making of commercial bank, such as marking factor, competitive factor, geography factor and economic factor, which has provided scientific methods and evidence for the optimized resource distribution of commercial banks.
  • 详情 模拟明星基金的投资组合能否获得超额收益?
    作为基金业的亮点,明星基金用远超过市场其他投资者的收益吸引着A股市场投资者的注意力。明星基金经理的行为及其投资思路体现了A股市场基金行业的最高水平的投资决策,明星基金经理的投资心理和行为成为该基金表现的决定性因素。跟踪明星基金的股票投资组合能否体现他们的投资思路和决策,能否获得超额收益?本文根据以往基金的业绩和收益排名,选取2006年到2008年累积收益名列前茅的五只明星基金,根据它们在2009年和2010年两年期间每季度发布的季报的十大重仓股的分析,对明星基金进行被动模拟,从而形成以模拟最优明星基金的被动型基金组合。论文验证模拟明星基金的组合是否可以在A股市场上获得超额收益,并在模拟基金的过程当中尝试模拟年度和季度为代表的长、短期收益,以及仓位模拟,对各种策略进行对比,形成收益最大化策略。
  • 详情 利率双轨制与中国货币政策执行
    中国经济目前处于利率双轨制之下:银行体系中被管制的存贷款利率,和基本由市场决定的货币和债券市场利率共存。利率双轨制是中国渐进式改革的一部分,也是理解中国货币政策框架的关键。以存款利率上限为核心的利率双轨制决定了中国货币政策中数量与价格工具并存的特点,也意味着中国货币政策传导机制不同于发达国家。本文通过一个新的理论模型来解释利率双轨制下的中国货币政策传导机制,描述了不同情形下,货币政策目标如何通过各种政策工具传导至市场利率,并和信贷总规模一起实现货币政策对实体经济的调控。该理论模型的基本思路是:价格管制带来的扭曲需要由数量管制来纠正。实证模型结果显示:市场利率对基准存款利率调整最敏感,其次是存款准备金率的调整,公开市场操作在利率双轨制下效果则不太显著。
  • 详情 Foreign Investor Heterogeneity and Stock Liquidity Around the World
    This paper examines whether foreign investor heterogeneity plays a role in stock liquidity on a sample of 27,976 firms from 39 countries for the period from 2003 to 2009. Results show that foreign direct ownership is negatively, while foreign portfolio ownership is positively, associated with various measures of stock liquidity. Furthermore, liquidity also reduces more (less) in firms with larger foreign direct investment FDI (foreign portfolio investment, FPI) during the 2008 market downturn. As predicted by finance theory, foreign investors influence stock liquidity through both trading activity and information channels. Our findings also indicate that the presence of FDI investors improves firm valuation and operating performance even at the expense of an increase in the firm’s cost of capital, suggesting that the value-enhancing benefits from FDI investors’ monitoring efforts outweigh the liquidity costs and high adverse selection premium demanded by less informed investors. In contrast, the positive impacts of FPI ownership on firm performance, as previously documented in existing literature, becomes negative and also not robustly significant after controlling for liquidity.
  • 详情 市场群体的交易性条件反射及其量化方法
    本文通过我国股市的高频数据和相关性分析来研究市场群体的学习和心理行为。我们根据心理学中的操作性条件反射,首次提出一个交易性条件反射的概念,用成交量-价概率波方程中的成交量概率来计量市场群体交易性条件反射的强度。我们发现:总体来说,平均收益率与交易性条件反射强度变化之间具有显著的正相关性,市场群体对收益率的心理预期显著地表现了卖出的处置效应和买入的羊群行为,并且该“羊群”对价格趋势的心理预期明显地大于其反转的;第二,我们还发现在细分后的某一时期,它们之间具有显著的负相关性。我们用条件反射来解释他们的交易行为“异象”。
  • 详情 Market Crowd Trading Conditioning and Its Measurement
    In this paper, we study market crowd psychological behaviors in learning by correlation analysis, using every trading high frequency data in China stock market. We introduce a notion of trading conditioning in terms of operant conditioning in psychology and measure its intensity by accumulative trading volume probability in a time interval in the transaction price-volume probability wave equation that can describe market crowd coherence in their interacted trading behavior. We find that there is, in general, significant positive correlation between the rate of price volatility mean return and the change in the intensity of market crowd trading conditioning. They behave significantly disposition effect in stock selling and herd behavior in stock buying with expectation on return simultaneously. Specifically, “the herd” have significant stronger expectation on price momentum than its reversal. Second, there is also a significant negative correlation between them in a subdivided term; market crowd show buy-and-hold behavior when price rises steadily, and panic selling when it drops abruptly in depth. We explain both the puzzle of more peaked, heavily tailed, and clustered characteristics in return distribution by coherence and that of market crowd behavioral “anomalies” by trading conditioning in a unified transaction price-volume probability wave framework.
  • 详情 The Effects of Market Development on Controlling Shareholders' Participation in Rights Offerings
    We examine whether and how variations in the level of market development across regions in China affect controlling shareholders’ decisions to participate in Chinese public companies’ rights offerings. We find significant positive relations between measures of market development and controlling shareholders’ participation, as well as evidence that controlling shareholders’ participation benefits minority shareholders. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that better market development in an economy can provide de facto protection for minority shareholders by creating implicit incentives for controlling shareholders to act in the interests of minority shareholders. Because our study holds constant minority shareholders’ de jure rights, these results suggest a reputation channel exists for macro-level institutions to affect firm-level governance that is distinct from the direct channel of explicitly granting de jure rights to minority shareholders.
  • 详情 经理人市场、薪酬契约有效性与管理层侵占——基于国有企业经理人“59 岁现象”的研究
    基于我国国有企业经理人特有的“59 岁现象”,本文以非生产性支出为视角,研究了国有企业经理人退休前的侵占行为。研究发现,就全样本而言,本文未发现我国国有企业经理人退休前存在显著的侵占行为;分样本研究表明:(1)超额薪酬高低并非影响侵占动机的重要因素;(2)当经理人来自上市公司内部,或者薪酬契约缺乏弹性、股权激励强度不足时,面临退休的国有企业经理人侵占动机更强;(3)以经理人市场和薪酬契约的不同维度对国有企业样本进行二维分组,结果表明,当市场约束或激励机制存在双重不足时,面临退休的国有企业经理人侵占动机最强。本文的研究发现,不仅有助于丰富经理人激励的相关文献;同时,对我国国有企业经理人市场和薪酬制度建设亦具有重要的政策含义。