• 详情 The Role of Institutional Development in the Prevalence and Value of Family Firms
    We investigate the role played by institutional development in the prevalence and value of family firms, while controlling for the potential effect of cultural norms. China provides a good research lab since it combines great heterogeneity in institutional development across the Chinese provinces with homogeneity in cultural norms, law, and regulation. Using hand-collected data from publicly listed Chinese firms, we find that, when institutional efficiency is low, family ownership and management increase value, while family control in excess of ownership reduces value. When institutional efficiency is high, none of these effects are significant.
  • 详情 The Impact of Ownership and Ownership Concentration on the Performance of China's Listed Frim
    This paper investigates the impact of ownership and ownership concentration on the performance of China’s listed firms. By recognizing the differences between ownership and ownership concentration and between total ownership concentration and tradable ownership concentration, we conduct simplex, interactive and joint analyses. We find that ownership concentration is approximately associated with higher firm performance. Ownership concentration is more powerful than any category of ownership in determining firm performance. Firm performance is better when the state is the largest of the top shareholders and/or institutions dominate ownership among the top tradable shareholders. Our results support the theory that high ownership concentration mitigates the agency problem.
  • 详情 Ultimate Controlling Shareholders and Dividends Payout: Evidence from Hong Kong
    This study investigates how ultimate controlling shareholders influence dividends payout policy in industrial firms in the natural experimental setting of Hong Kong, which features no tax on dividends and the prevalence of concentrated ownership. We find that the ultimate control held by the controlling shareholders is negatively associated with the level of dividends payout, consistent with the agency costs explanation of dividends; and that the dividend payout behavior in firms with controlling shareholders exhibits similar patterns as in US, UK and EU firms. We also conduct separate analysis on family controlled and state controlled firms and find that the heterogeneity across these large shareholders has a confounding effect on corporate dividend payout behavior.
  • 详情 Vultures circling overhead: Does short selling tell the future?
    This paper evidences a lead-lag relationship between securities which experience high levels of short-selling and those that do not. This is based on evidence that short-selling increases the speed with which information, especially negative information, is absorbed into prices. Previous literature mainly focus on the presence of short-selling and its effect on prices. This paper focuses on the magnitude of short-selling and finds a strong lead-lag relationship between returns of stocks that experience heavy short-selling compared to those that experience slight amounts. The relationship conforms to that of Chordia & Swaminthan’s (2000) speed adjustment hypothesis, in that it facilitates the imputation of common information. The relationship is strongest in small illiquid stocks where short-selling aids in the imputation of common information symmetrically and asymmetrically, and reduces as stocks become larger and more liquid. However in extremely volatile markets this relationship suffers. The relationship is robust to various factors including out of sample tests, accounting for size, and accounting for volume. Of note is the finding that short-selling aids in information imputation over-and-above the efficiency attributed to sophisticated investors. This indicates that market maker and uninformed short-sales add to the lead-lag effect.
  • 详情 本币升值、出口竞争力和跨境贸易计价货币选择
    本文在全面回顾跨境贸易计价货币选择理论的基础上,通过引入贸易国利差变量拓展了Goldberg and Tille (2005)模型,并实证分析了1984-2009年日元计价货币选择的影响因素。我们的研究发现,出口商倾向于选择利率高、预期将升值的货币作为计价货币。日元持续升值、日本出口企业竞争力的提高有利于日元计价货币的选择,日美利差的扩大不利于日元计价货币的选择,日本出口商以日元作为计价货币具有较强的惯性。
  • 详情 中国股票型基金业绩持续性的实证研究
    本文借鉴Jegadeesh 和Titman(1993)的动量检验方法,检验了2000 年1 月至2009 年6 月之 间所有存续时间超过24 个月的中国股票型基金业绩是否存在持续性,结果发现170 支样本基金的业绩在 12 个月内存在显著的持续性,并且这种持续性不能为资本资产定价模型(CAPM)以及Fama-French 三因 素模型所解释。在此基础上,本文借鉴Carhart(1997)的方法,检验了基金的各项特征是否对基金业绩持 续性具有影响,结果发现除基金已往业绩外,并未发现基金的其他特征对基金业绩持续性具有显著的影响。 本文的研究对于投资者选择基金具有一定的指导意义,同时对于帮助我们加深对中国资本市场运行规律的 认识具有一定的意义。
  • 详情 金融危机与黄金定价模型
    作为一种特殊的大宗商品,黄金具有商品、货币和避险的多重属性,在此次金融危机中,黄金表 现出了较强的货币和避险属性。就当前货币体系下的黄金定价问题:本文提出了一个基于各大类资产时间 序列定价(大类资产定价)的新思路,模型综合考虑了黄金的商品、货币和避险属性,将黄金价值分解为: 商品基准价值、基于汇率(货币篮子)的“隐性货币价值”和主权国家信用违约的风险溢价,并分别以大宗 商品CRB指数、美元指数USDX和美国国债CDS利差等资产价格作为代理变量对其进行定价研究。向量自 回归(VAR)模型研究表明:美元指数USDX负向驱动黄金价格,大宗商品指数CRB、美国国债指数CDS 正向驱动黄金价格;其中大宗商品指数CRB滞后一阶、美元指数USDX滞后一阶、美国国债CDS利差滞后 二阶价格信息对黄金价格的影响最显著。研究还表明:黄金价格波动率存在聚类性、长记忆性,但不存在 非对称性。
  • 详情 金融结构、流动性创造与货币政策
    金融结构的不断演变,使得流动性的内涵和流动性创造的形式发生了变化。本文认为, 在市场主导型的金融结构下, 具有较强市场流动性的金融资产被纳入到广义流动性的范畴,在总量上, 广义流动性包括了各种信用形式在内的社会信用总量。 非银行金融机构在金融市场上以证券化的方式 创造流动性,这是一种广义的、内生于金融市场内部的流动性扩张,在过去几年导致整个社会可贷资 金总量的快速增加。流动性创造形式的变化会影响到宏观经济金融的稳定,以及中央银行货币政策的 有效性。因此,一国政策当局应该加强流动性管理、建立以“流动性”为核心的政策框架体系。
  • 详情 汽车金融公司资产证券化问题探讨
    融资瓶颈限制了汽车金融公司规模扩张和可持续发展。研究证明,资产证券化是解决汽车金融公司流动性的有效途径。我国处于尝试阶段,目前爆发的金融危机对资产证券化提出更高要求,当前探讨汽车金融公司资产证券化问题具有现实意义。本文结构安排如下:首先引入汽车金融公司资产证券化问题;其次结合上汽通用案例分析国内存在的不足;再次从资产证券化操作流程进行理论分析;最后从管理层、汽车金融公司、相关参与主体和金融市场四方面提出了相应对策建议。
  • 详情 超国家恒值国际货币从何而来?--- “初级世界元”新概念和框架方案
    阐发以国际购买力平价指数为参照体的信用货币定值基准新概念;提供一种非主权、无储备型的初级环球通货设计方案,可与各国主权货币并行不悖,不受强势货币操纵利用,具有高度稳定性、可操作性和无可置疑的信用地位。据此推出一份“初级世界元”“路线图”。 “初级世界元”一旦实施,世界不再有货币霸主,“特里芬悖论”退出历史舞台,铸币税特权、外汇储备和套汇投机走进历史,国际汇率问题因“内化”而消弭于无形,山雨欲来的全球性货币危机警报解除,全球化前景变得更为公正、透明、健康和美好;由此引导全球货币体系从横向大联合(区域性货币一体化)的基石之上朝向“世界单一货币”的高度升级发展,通达实现“同一个世界,同一种货币”的远景目标。