• 详情 中国股票市场IPO折价实证研究
    IPO折价存在于世界各国的 IPO市场。有关 IPO 折价的研究是一个热点问题,包括折价存在性、差异性、折价的影响因素、折价形成的原因与预测等。中国股市的特殊性使 IPO上市股票的折价不但符合 IPO的普遍规律,而且具有很多独特的规律。本文结合有关折价原因的几种理论与假说(包括信息不对称、股权分配、投资者非理性等),对中国股市 IPO 折价的存在性,不同市场、股票类型折价的差异性,以及造成这种差异的原因等进行了实证研究,并创造性地对承销商声誉的衡量、股市上升期与下降期的折价表现、同一企业 AB 股发行顺序对折价的影响等进行了研究。揭示了中国 IPO折价的存在性、股票市场的差异性及造成差异的原因,探索了股票一、二级市场的有机结合路径。对规范和完善 IPO市场定价机制,帮助监管者制定规则,引导投资者理性投资等有一定的指导意义。
  • 详情 交叉上市股票价格发现贡献差异的横截面分析
    本文利用Hasbrouk(1995)的信息分享模型以同时在A股市场和H股市场交叉上市的公司为研究对象,对公司A、H股的价格发现贡献进行了评估,并对交叉上市股票价格发现能力的横截面特征和影响因素进行了实证研究。研究发现:(1)虽然交叉上市公司A、H股股票价格存在差异,但是两者的变动存在协整关系且互为调整,平均来看A股比H股股票更具价格发现功能;(2)交叉上市公司间的H股的价格发现贡献存在差异;(3)信息不对称、流动性、交易成本以及市场交易份额是导致各公司H股价格发现贡献不同的主要原因。
  • 详情 不完全市场中资产组合选择研究
    Markowitz(1952)的投资组合理论理论为完全市场条件下的最优资产配置问题奠定了坚实的理论基础,但是当市场中存在不流动性资产时,例如限售股,人力资本,房地产和私人所有权等,那么原有的最优组合选择策略将会改变。本文在连续时间模型框架下研究市场中存在不可交易资产时的最优资产配置问题。结果表明:存在不流动资产的市场与完全流通市场的最优组合策略是不同的,最优资产配置策略取决于非流动性资产的初始禀赋以及流动约束时间等特点,还有就是代理者的流动性财富。我们提供了一个自认为是这个问题的第一个解析解,它可以拓展应用于存在这类不可交易资产的或有索取权的组合选择问题。
  • 详情 本币升值影响外汇储备的实证分析:2003-2007
    本文以2003-2007年13个国家为研究对象,研究了不同国家本币升值对外汇储备的影响。面板数据的实证结果表明,汇率波动在一定程度上决定了一国外汇储备的规模,本币升值是导致2002年以后新兴市场国家外汇储备快速增长的重要因素,本币升值幅度与外汇储备的增幅成反比。我们认为,外汇储备管理应从控制供给入手,有效控制外汇储备规模。而央行减少对汇率的干预,并逐步推进人民币国际化是有效降低过多外汇储备的重要手段。
  • 详情 Understanding the Variation of Foreign Share Price Discounts --- A Study of Dual-listed Chinese Firms
    This paper investigates what drives the price disparity to vary in the “twin” shares (A shares traded largely by domestic investors while B- and H- shares traded mainly by foreign investors) in China. Extending the variance decomposition framework of Vuolteenaho (2002), we decompose the unexpected price disparity into two terms: difference in expected return news and difference in cash flow news. Our results show that difference in expected return news overwhelmingly dominates difference in cash flow news in driving the variation of the price disparity. This suggests that to a large extent, market or macro news, rather than firms’ specific news, moves the price disparity of the twin shares.
  • 详情 涨跌幅限制在涨跌停日的真实绩效——基于沪市的实证研究
    :目前国内外文献中对于涨跌幅限制在涨跌停日的真实绩效尚无有效的估计方法。 本文通过对股票日收益数据的二次处理分清了涨跌幅限制在涨跌停日的两种作用——限价 作用和助涨跌作用,首次将混合正态-GARCH(1,1)模型引入涨跌幅限制的研究中,并用该模 型研究了我国沪市不同公司规模的股票,结果表明:第一,混合正态-GARCH(1,1)比简单混 合正态模型能更好地拟合我国沪市的日个股收益数据;第二,涨跌幅限制在涨跌停日并没有 起到提高股票信息有效性和降低股价波动的作用;第三,涨跌幅限制的真实绩效与公司规模 无关,且不存在涨、跌停日的非对称影响。
  • 详情 Optimal Scale and Asset Allocation of SWF: China’s Case
    This paper studies the optimal scale and asset allocation of Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF), taking China’s SWF as an example. We use the AR (1) process to simulate the future foreign exchange earnings of China and generate three patterns of the future earnings. With these three scenarios and based on Deaton’s precautionary saving model, we find that the optimal scale and asset allocation of China’s SWF mainly depend on the expected trend and fluctuation of the future foreign exchange earnings and expected yields that SWF can get. When foreign exchange earnings shows an upward trend, the scale of SWF should not be expanded even the expected investment yield is very high, and ratio of risky assets should be kept stable and high. When foreign exchange earnings is stabilized as its growth rate slows down, the scale of SWF has the positive correlation with the degree of earnings fluctuation and expected yield of investment, and also ratio of risky assets is generally lower. When foreign exchange earnings decrease, the scale of SWF should be expanded even the expected investment yield is not so high, and the ratio of risky assets is dependent on the characteristics of expected investment yields. We also conclude that investment policy of China’s SWF should follow Temasek’s investment model, under the current trend of China’s foreign exchange trend, and strive for high yield investment chances.
  • 详情 The Role of Venture Capitalists in Listed Companies: Evidence from Mainland China
    We empirically examine the role of venture capital in VC-backed listed firms in Mainland China. It is found that the VC-backed firms experience higher underpricing as the investors in the second market are too optimistic about the prospect of the VC-backed firms, but not about the lower pricing in the primary market. In addition, the pre- and post-IPO operating performance of VC-backed firms are found to be significantly better than that of non VC-backed ones. The result supports the monitoring model. Meanwhile, there is no evidence to support the certification model. Furthermore, it is consistent with the grandstanding model proposed by Gompers that high-reputation VC-backed firms have a better post-IPO operating and market performance compared to low-reputation VC-backed ones.
  • 详情 基于无套利定价的宏观——利率期限结构模型实证研究
    宏观——利率期限结构联合模型的建立有效地解释了宏观经济冲击对期限结构因子及期限结构移动的影响。本文在宏观——国债利率期限结构 VAR 模型中,加入无套利定价条件,探讨无套利约束后对模型的改善性。实证得出,引入宏观因子和无套利约束对短期期限结构模型并没有改善作用, 而对中期即期利率的预测效果明显优于未引入宏观因子和无套利约束,但至于更长期限的即期利率,这种优越性并没有体现出来。
  • 详情 开放式基金暂停申购:保护投资者还是溢出效应?
    由于过多的资金流入会使基金的规模变大从而难以有效地管理,基金公司暂停旗下某只基金申购的现象越来越多。基金公司暂停申购的公告中大多宣称是为了控制基金规模,使前期表现好的基金可以维持其良好的业绩表现,从而保护投资者的利益。但是,我们对国内暂停申购的开放式基金进行实证研究后发现,暂停申购的基金未能维持其良好表现,暂停申购未能保护投资者利益。做出暂停申购的决定更可能是基金公司为了得到溢出效应(spillover effect):基金公司通过关闭旗下的一只基金来引起投资者注意并促使其投资于公 司旗下的其他基金。有证据表明这种暂停申购的策略能有效的引起更多的资金流入该基金公司。