期货价格与现货价格之间是否存在协整关系是期货市场实证中的一个基础性问题。本文使用考虑结构变化因素的协整检验方法对我国不同期限的燃料油期货价格与现货价格之间的关系进行协整检验。实证研究发现，不同期限的燃料油期货价格与现货价格之间均存在协整关系，但是只有近月合约期货价格与现货之间的协整关系存在结构变化。最后，本文指出期货价格与现货价格之间存在结构变化的协整关系，对投资者的套期保值活动的有意启示。

We examine whether the Chinese exchange rate is misaligned and how Chinese trade flows respond to the exchange rate and to economic activity. We find, first, that the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), is substantially below the value predicted by estimates based upon a cross-country sample, when using the 2006 vintage of the World Development Indicators. The economic magnitude of the mis-alignment is substantial -- on the order of 50 percent in log terms. However, the misalignment is typically not statistically significant, in the sense of being more than two standard errors away from the conditional mean. Moreover, this finding disappears completely when using the most recent 2008 vintage of data; then the estimated undervaluation is on the order of 10 percent. Second, we find that Chinese multilateral trade flows respond to relative prices -- as represented by a trade weighted exchange rate -- but the relationship is not always precisely estimated. In addition, the direction of the effects is sometimes different from what is expected a priori. For instance, Chinese ordinary imports actually rise in response to a RMB depreciation; however, Chinese exports appear to respond to RMB depreciation in the expected manner, as long as a supply variable is included. In that sense, Chinese trade is not exceptional. Furthermore, Chinese trade with the United States appears to behave in a standard manner -- especially after the expansion in the Chinese manufacturing capital stock is accounted for. Thus, the China-US trade balance should respond to real exchange rate and relative income movements in the anticipated manner. However, in neither the case of multilateral nor bilateral trade flows should one expect quantitatively large effects arising from exchange rate changes. And, of course, these results are not informative with regard to the question of how a change in the RMB/USD exchange rate would affect the overall US trade deficit.

本文利用局部调整模型对我国的货币需求函数进行了定量估计。估计结果表明，实际产出、名义利率、通货膨胀率、股票市价总值以及货币替代率均对我国的狭义和广义货币需求产生了显著的影响。进一步地，我们计算出我国的实际货币缺口，以此考察我国实际货币供求状况的变动特征及其与实际利率、实际有效汇率之间的影响关系。分析表明，我国近年来的利率和汇率政策仍然是以稳定通货膨胀为主要任务的，但仅仅通过利率调整或者人民币升值均不能有效地改善我国的货币供求状况，并且在稳定通货膨胀方面的效果也不理想。

人民币汇率的波动问题一直是学术界讨论的焦点，本文选取自汇率制度改革后的826个高频日汇率数据，在使用GARCH（1，1）模型研究美元和港币对人民币汇率波动的基础上，对美元、港币、日元和欧元对人民币汇率的互动性进行了研究，认为港币对人民币汇率波动的持续性强于美元对人民币汇率的波动，在我国的外汇市场上，美元和港币的主导性最强，欧元次之，日元最弱。

本文首先详细综述了预期汇率变化对货币需求影响的理论分析与实证检验的国内外文献，然后利用利用中国1999-2007年的月度数据估计了包含人民币预期升值率与国外利率的货币需求函数，结论显示人民币预期升值率的上升将通过货币替代效应与资本流动效应显著增加我国微观经济主体对狭义货币与广义货币的持有。最后本文从理论与实证分析结果出发，为我国开放条件下货币政策的制定与实施提出了相关的政策建议。

本文主要研究外资并购对于我国上市公司长期绩效的影响。基于一般并购理论、跨国并购理论、并购绩效理论、跨国并购绩效理论，提出外资并购我国上市公司绩效分析的理论假设，对外资并购我国上市公司的长期绩效影响进行实证分析和检验。结论表明，外资并购在总体上对目标公司绩效提升具有显著性影响。最后在理论和实证研究的基础上，提出相应的政策建议。

Chinese outbound investment can overall be explained by traditional theories on FDI and MNEs. However, in some aspects Chinese outward FDI is unique and differs from known investment in the “Western” context. Most importantly, it is largely executed by Chinese SOEs. This paper aspires to deepen understanding on the phenomemon by focusing on the policy dimension of Chinese outbound investment. It provides an understanding of the potential and actual government influence, comparing motivations for internationalization by Chinese enterprises and the Chinese government, and pointing out where Chinese companies own a comparative advantage in their internationalisaton activities compared to its mostly Western competitors due to the particular Chinese policy support. Apart from typical motivations for internationalization that apply for Chinese MNEs (market-seeking, resource-seeking, strategic asset seeking and efficiency-seeking motivations), a number of additional motivations exist, which are directly linked to the particular institutional and societal context of China.

Chinese commercial banks have experienced tremendous growth over the past decade but have received limited academic attention due to data collection difficulty. We’ve successfully compiled a hand-collected panel dataset of Chinese commercial banks governance characteristics from 1998 to 2007. We empirically examine the relation between board governance and the profitability of Chinese commercial banks. We find that board governance has significant impact on Chinese banks’ performance. Specifically, higher board ownership, lower percentage of insiders on board, and lower block ownership are associated with better bank performance. In addition, to improve bank performance, Chinese bank managers should also focus on effectively control of bank’s operating cost, increasing net interest margin, and closely monitoring loan productivity. This is the first study conducted on the efficacy of Chinese banks’ governance system and its relation with banks’ profitability. Empirical evidence from this study has important policy implications in reforming China’s banking system into a more transparent and more efficient market driven system.

We investigate the performance and characteristics of acquiring firms on 1148 M&A on the two Chinese stock markets from 1998 to 2003. Using the market model, the CAPM model and the buy-and-hold methods, we find significantly positive abnormal returns before (6 months) and upon M&A announcements, while the long-run abnormal returns (6 months) after M&A are insignificant. Within our sample, cash is the dominant payment method and the competition during M&A is low. The cross-sectional analysis on acquirers' market performance upon announcements shows that the political advantages of acquiring firms have a significantly positive impact on the acquirers' performance, while the economic advantages do not. Cross-provincial M&A and better corporate governance create value to acquiring firms. Finally, cash payment impacts positively and regulation development impacts negatively the performance of acquiring firms during M&A.

Many prior studies have been devoted to financial distress of Chinese listed companies over the last two decades. However, these distressed companies are still failed to find out the exact determinants of financial distress. Therefore, the purposes of this paper are to provide an investigation of financial distressed companies trading on Chinese Stock Exchanges, and to elaborate the determinants of falling into financial distress by using a panel data set containing information on the stock market under Binary Logit Model during the period 1998-2005. The empirical findings present the relationship between 13 independent variables and the probability of financial distress, and particularly analyze the impact of corporate governance on Chinese financial distressed companies. Of these corporate governance variables, agency costs and ownership structure appear to be important factors to affect the probability of financial distress.