• 详情 中国股市增发的市场反应及影响因素研究
    本文选取了较为稳健的数据考察我国股市增发中的市场反应,并根据大盘走势对市场反应作进一步分析;然后对有可能影响市场反应的因素进行检验。结果发现,市场对增发有负面反应,但是在大盘上涨阶段市场反应更为平缓,这说明投资者情绪对市场反应有一定的影响;在不同的事件日,市场对不同因素的反应有所变化,但对于一些因素,我们只得到了较为模糊的结论,这应该归因于我国股市特有的制度因素。
  • 详情 基于扩展的息票剥离法的国债收益率曲线的估计
    本文在一般息票剥离法(bootstrap method)的基础上进行了尝试性扩展:采用三次样条插值方法,以便可以对任意可得到的国债报价数据进行即期收益率曲线估计。同时利用数学软件Maple对插值方程和收益率曲线节点的非线性联立方程进行了求解。最后,利用该方法以2004年1月9日上海证券交易所的18个国债报价数据(全价)为样本,估计出了我国的国债收益率曲线,然后又根据估计出的国债收益率曲线对010311国债进行了定价,并和当日实际报价进行了比较分析。
  • 详情 A Study of the Volatility Risk Premium in the OTC
    This study employs a non-parametric approach to investigate the volatility risk premium in the major over-the-counter currency option markets. Using a large database of daily quotes on delta neutral straddle in four major currencies ? the British Pound, the Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the Swiss Franc ? we find that volatility risk is priced in all four currencies across different option maturities and the volatility risk premium is negative. The volatility risk premium has a term structure where the premium decreases in maturity. We also find evidence that jump risk may be priced in the currency option market.
  • 详情 Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality
    This paper is a critical survey of models designed for pricing xed income securities and their associated term structures of market yields. Our primary focus is on the interplay between the theoretical speci cation of dynamic term structure models and their empirical t to historical changes in the shapes of yield curves. We begin by overviewing the dynamic term structure models that have been t to treasury or swap yield curves and in which the risk factors follow di usions, jump-di usion, or have \switching regimes." Then the goodness-of- ts of these models are assessed relative to their abilities to: (i) match linear projections of changes in yields onto the slope of the yield curve; (ii) match the persistence of conditional volatilities, and the shapes of term structures of unconditional volatilities, of yields; and (iii) to reliably price caps, swaptions, and other xed-income derivatives. For the case of defaultable securities we explore the relative ts to historical yield spreads.
  • 详情 银行业盈利模式比较及中国发展趋势分析
    新的技术和竞争背景,以及银行赖以生存的本土经济和制度的发展,使银行的盈利模式产生变化。从发展趋势看,受经济自由化和银行业开放的影响,发展中国家的银行发展模式有加速向发达国家银行发展模式靠拢的倾向。大银行和小银行则在竞争中各领风骚,形成相对稳定的两大发展阵营。本文主要分析了世界最具竞争力的美国银行业盈利模式,并通过对比亚洲新兴市场银行业的盈利模式特征,分析我国银行业盈利模式的发展趋势。 在主要的股票交易市场上,银行股是成份股的主要组成,银行指数一般比市场指数更走强,基于银行价值认可的个股价格分化严重,盈利指标为正的银行股价格升幅高于其他类别的股票,盈利模式被市场认可且增长潜力大的银行个股市盈率远高于其他银行个股。我国银行股股价也将因盈利模式的差异导致竞争力差异,最终导致股价分化。
  • 详情 现代中央银行最后贷款人制度的演进:一个制度历史变迁过程的个案研究
    论文提要:现代中央银行的最基本的制度特征是中央银行的最后贷款人功能。货币政策功能和金融监管功能仅是最后贷款人功能的衍生功能。现代中央银行制度背后隐含着两个完全不同的制度变迁过程,一个是以财政融资功能为取向的古典中央银行制度的制度变迁过程,另一个是以实现弹性货币供给为目标的最后贷款人制度的变迁过程。这两种制度在发达的商业银行体系建立起来以后被人为融合为一体,形成了如今被各国普遍采用的现代中央银行制度。认清现代中央银行制度的本质特征将会对我们分析具体问题有很大帮助。
  • 详情 证券设计与风险资本融资
    我们证明可转换债券可以解决风险投资家和创业者之间双边的道德风险问题,通过适当的合约设计双方的最优努力水平将是子博弈完美纳什均衡。对应于阶段融资,风险投资中的证券应设计为阶段性的次级债权合约加上认股权证,由于逆向选择的原因次级债权并不会要求过高的利息。风险投资家通过增强附属条款和获取控制权得到了风险补偿,但这削弱了债权的显性激励特征。出于声誉以及后续融资的考虑,尽管没有显性激励,创业者前期的努力也严格为正。阶段融资随时保持退出的权利对创业者产生了激励,但也可能诱使创业者粉饰业绩。
  • 详情 我国封闭式基金折价的业绩相关性检验与投资者理性化分析
    利用统计分析方法对2000 年8 月17 日至2002 年8 月16 日中国封闭式基金的基金溢价和业绩相关关系进行检验。研究发现,我国封闭式基金溢价水平与基金业绩的关系正在经历由不相关、微弱正相关逐渐到比较显著的正相关发展过程。结果表明我国投资者对封闭式基金的认识逐渐理性化,这种发展趋势有助于完善我国封闭式基金经理人的激励约束机制,对发展我国基金产业具有重要启示。
  • 详情 Banking Fragility and Disclosure: International Evidence
    Motivated by recent public policy debates on the role of market discipline in banking stability, I examine the impact of greater bank disclosure in mitigating the likelihood of systemic banking crisis. In a cross sectional study of banking systems across 49 countries in the 90s, I find that banking crises are less likely in countries with financial reporting regimes characterized by (i) comprehensive disclosure (ii) informative disclosure, (iii) timely disclosure and (iv) more stringent auditing.
  • 详情 Some basic remarks on options valuation
    This paper deals with the option-pricing problem. In the first part of the paper we study in more details the discrete setting of the option-pricing problem usually referred to as the binomial scheme. We highlight basic differences between the old and the new approaches. The main ualitative distinction of the new pricing approach from either binomial or Black Scholes’s is that it represents the option price as a stochastic process. This stochastic interpretation can not give straight forward advantage for an investor due to stochastic setting of the pricing problem. The new approach explicitly states that the option price is more risky than it is customary represented by binomial scheme or Black Scholes theory. Continuous setting will be considered in the second part of the paper following [1]. One significant conclusion follows from the new model. It states that there is no sense in using either neutral probabilities or ‘neutral world’ applications for options valuation either theoretically or numerically. Recall that after the Black Scholes’ publication [2] the ‘simplified’ approach named later binomial scheme was introduced in [3]. In this paper referring to the historical tradition, we first represent discrete scheme. In several examples we discuss two-period plain vanilla option valuation. Then we extend the discrete scheme applications to an exotic option-pricing referred to as a compound option. The compound option in Black Scholes setting was first studied in [4] and then in [5,6].