我国企业高度依赖短期债务融资， “短债长用”的现象非常普遍，这容易导致企 业在银根紧缩时由于难以续借到期的短期债务而发生流动性成本。本文以我国 2006—2008 年 A 股上市公司为研究对象，对银根紧缩时企业短期债务的流动性成本进行度量并检验其 是否受产权性质、规模及成长性等因素的影响。我们发现：银根紧缩时公司的短期债务水平 显著下降而长期债务水平没有明显变化，并且民营公司与小规模公司的短期债务水平下降得 更多；银根紧缩时，短期债务水平较高的公司具有更差的经营绩效，其季度ROA下降幅度 至少比其他公司大 0.2%，并且短期债务的这种负面影响对民营公司、小规模公司或者高成 长公司显著更大。本文的实证结果表明，我国短期债务水平较高的公司在银根紧缩期间会发 生流动性成本，并且该成本对民营公司、小规模公司或高成长性公司更为重要。

Using quarterly data from 1998:Q1 to 2009:Q4 and monthly data from July 2005 to February 2010, this paper examines the impact of key monetary policy variables, including long- term benchmark bank loan rate, money supply growth, and mortgage credit policy indicator, on the real estate price growth dynamics in China. Empirical results consistently demonstrate that lower interest rate, faster money supply growth and loosening mortgage down payment requirement tend to accelerate the subsequent home price growth, and vice versa. These results suggest that Chinese monetary policy actions are the key driving forces behind the change of real estate price growth in China. We also show that hot money flow does not have significant impact on the change of home price growth after controlling for the money supply growth. Finally, a bullish stock market tends to accelerate subsequent home price growth.

论文利用金融危机提供的自然实验机会，分析了女性董事的风险规避倾向是 否影响公司的投资决策。论文通过对 2007-2009 年 A 股上市公司的实证分析发现，在金融 危机期间，女性董事比率高的公司投资水平下降的更快，而且这种效应主要集中在过度投资 的公司中。进一步的研究表明，在金融危机期间，女性董事比率高的公司倾向于通过减少长 期借款来规避债务风险。论文的研究结论表明，在面临不确定性的情况下，女性的风险规避 意识有利于减少公司的过度投资，降低债务风险，帮助公司规避金融危机所带来的不利影响。 本文丰富了我们对公司投资行为的认识，以及女性高管在公司治理中所扮演的角色。

本文研究风险投资背景对公司在股票市场表现的影响。研究发现：相对于政府背景风 险投资支持的公司，外资和混合型背景风险投资支持的公司 IPO 抑价率较低，股票市场异 常回报率较高，民营背景风险投资支持的与政府背景支持的无显著差异；如果仅划分为有、 无外资背景风险投资参与两类，那么外资背景风险投资参与支持的公司相对于那些非外资背 景风险投资支持的公司 IPO 抑价率更低，股票回报率更高。对影响机理进一步剖析发现： 相对于那些非外资背景的风险投资，外资背景风险投资倾向更加谨慎的投资策略，投资之后 对公司治理结构安排会更加合理，进而公司具有较好的盈利能力，这些最终导致公司股票 IPO抑价率较低和回报率较高。

本文利用2006年10月至2010年9月的日数据，建立金融市场的EGARCH 模型，检验了我国中央银行沟通对金融市场预期的引导效应。结论表明：我国中 央银行沟通已能够引导货币市场和股票市场的预期形成；口头沟通与书面沟通相 比，后者的效力更强一些，并且在口头沟通中，央行行长比其他人更能影响金融 市场预期。主要的政策含义是沟通可以作为我国货币政策的一种新工具。

本文基于中国宏观季度数据的 SVAR 模型，采用 Narrative 方法和脉冲反应函数，在分解和识别货币政策 冲击的基础上，考察了不同货币政策的宏观效应，发现：货币供给水平政策的实施较为随意，宏观调控效果较差； 货币增长率存在盯住通胀的规则，对实际产出具有显著而持续的效应；央行的名义利率政策同时盯住通胀和实际产 出，宏观效应较好，然而对通胀表现出正负交错性效应。然后，在估计中国货币政策的基础上，本文通过构建货币 新凯恩斯模型，进一步考察了市场化利率下不同货币政策的有效性，发现：相对于数量型货币供给规则，名义利率 货币规则能最有效的调控实际产出和通货膨胀，且不容易引发经济波动。基于此，我们给出了中国有效货币政策规 则的设计。

近年来，我国物价水平不断攀升，通胀压力不断加大。什么原因导致我国物价水平上升成为学术界关注的热点。本文从货币供给和货币流通速度角度，采用平滑过渡向量自回归模型，利用1996年以来的月度数据，研究了货币与物价的非线性关系。实证结论表明：货币供给对物价的影响依赖于经济所处的状态（高通胀和低通胀两种不同的状态）；货币流通速度的变化会导致物价同方向变动，且不依赖于经济状态；应对物价变化，我国货币政策存在一定的时滞。

We empirically evaluate 20 prominent contributions to a broad range of areas in the empirical corporate finance literature. We assemble the necessary data and then apply a single, simple econometric method, the connected-groups approach of Abowd, Karmarz, and Margolis (1999), to appraise the extent to which prevailing empirical specifications explain variation of the dependent variable, differ in composition of fit arising from various classes of independent variables, and exhibit resistance to omitted variable bias and other endogeneity problems. In particular, we identify and estimate the role of observed and unobserved firm- and manager-specific characteristics in determining primary features of corporate governance, financial policy, payout policy, investment policy, and performance. Observed firm characteristics do best in explaining market leverage and CEO pay level and worst for takeover defenses and outcomes. Observed manager characteristics have relatively high power to explain CEO contract design and low power for firm focus and investment policy. Estimated specifications without firm and manager fixed effects do poorly in explaining variation in CEO duality, corporate control variables, and capital expenditures, and best in explaining executive pay level, board size, market leverage, corporate cash holdings, and firm risk. Including manager and firm fixed effects, along with firm and manager observables, delivers the best fit for dividend payout, the propensity to adopt antitakeover defenses, firm risk, board size, and firm focus. In terms of source, unobserved manager attributes deliver a high proportion of explained variation in the dependent variable for executive wealth-performance sensitivity, board independence, board size, and sensitivity of expected executive compensation to firm risk. In contrast, unobserved firm attributes provide a high proportion of variation explained for dividend payout, antitakeover defenses, book and market leverage, and corporate cash holdings. In part, these results suggest where empiricists could look for better proxies for what current theory identifies as important and where theorists could focus in building new models that encompass economic forces not contained in existing models. Finally, we assess the relevance of omitted variables and endogeneity for conventional empirical designs in the various subfields. Including manager and firm fixed effects significantly alters inference on primary explanatory variables in 17 of the 20 representative subfield specifications.

Little is known about the underlying sources of gains from takeovers. Using plant-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, I show that one source of gains is increased productivity of capital and labor in target plants. In particular, acquirers significantly reduce investments, wages, and employment in target plants, though output is unchanged relative to comparable plants. Acquirers also aggressively shut down target plants, especially those that are inefficient. Moreover, these changes help explain the merging firms' announcement returns. The total announcement returns to the combined firm are driven by improvements in target firm's productivity, rather than cutbacks in wages and employment. Also, targets with greater post-takeover productivity improvements receive higher offer premiums from acquirers. These results provide some of the first empirical evidence on the direct relation between productivity, labor, and stock returns in the context of takeovers.

Abstract: Mathematical analysis has been introduced into the analysis and decision of commercial bank outlets, by which ten index of influencing factors are selected to establish the analysis of outlets distribution and decision-making model; Hengshui Branch of Chinese Construction Bank in Hebei is taken as a sample, in which the factor analysis and cluster analysis are employed for the research and analysis, therefore, a breakthrough has been achieved in the thought of commercial banks and approaches of analysis and decision-making. The research in the paper shows that the mathematical analysis can completely provide scientific data for the distribution of commercial bank outlets; the division will provide evidence for analysis and decision-making of commercial bank, such as marking factor, competitive factor, geography factor and economic factor, which has provided scientific methods and evidence for the optimized resource distribution of commercial banks.