所属栏目:家庭金融/行为金融

Memory-induced Trading: Evidence from COVID-19 Quarantines
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发布日期:2025年12月15日 上次修订日期:2025年12月15日

摘要

This study investigates the role of contextual cues in memory-based decision-making within high-stakes trading environments. Using trade records from a large Chinese brokerage firm and a novel dataset on COVID-19 quarantines, we find that quarantine periods trigger the recall of previously traded stocks, increasing the likelihood of subsequent orders for those stocks. The observed patterns align more closely with similarity-based recall than with alternative channels. Welfare analysis reveals that these memory-induced trades lead to an annualized loss of approximately 70 percentage points for the representative investor's portfolio. We also find evidence at the market level: when the geographical distribution of quarantine risks is recalled, the probability of recalling the cross-sectional stock return-volume distribution from the same day increases by 1.6 percentage points. This study provides causal evidence from a real-world setting for memory-based theories, particularly similarity-based recall, and highlights a novel channel through which COVID-19 policies affect financial markets.
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XU Yihao Memory-induced Trading: Evidence from COVID-19 Quarantines (2025年12月15日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16500.html

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