It is commonly argued that poorly designed banking system safety nets are largely to blame for the frequency and severity of modern banking crises. For example, “underpriced” deposit insurance and/or low reserve requirement are often viewed as factors that encourages risk-taking by banks. In this paper, we study the effects of three policy variables: deposit insurance premia, reserve requirement and the way in which the costs of bank bailouts are financed. We show that when deposit insurance premia are low, the monetization of bank bailout costs may not be more inflationary than financing these costs out of general revenue. This is because, while monetizing the costs increases the inflation tax rate, higher levels of general taxation reduce savings, deposits, bank reserves, and the inflation tax base. Increasing the inflation tax rate obviously raises inflation, but so does an erosion of the inflation tax base. We also find that low deposit insurance premia or low reserve requirements may not be associated with a high rate of bank failure.

在证券市场上，信息披露是投资者了解上市公司价值的重要途径。上市公司发布的信息会透过投资者的预期和投资行为反映到其股票价格中，进而影响公司的价值。但是，如果上市公司发布虚假的信息，对公司价值会有什么影响呢？本文利用事件研究方法，分析了上市公司发布虚假信息及后来该虚假信息被管理层揭露这两个事件对公司价值的影响。结果表明，上市公司发布虚假信息并不会使公司价值显著增加，但是虚假信息的揭露则会使公司价值在短期内显著降低，并且投资者对虚假披露的信息有提前反应的现象。

广义预测误差方差分解是描述向量自回归模型中各变量的冲击对所有内生变量预测误差贡献度的新方法，这种方法克服了传统正交方差分解受变量排序影响的缺点。文章利用广义方差分解研究了沪市各个分类指数之间的关系，说明了一种行业指数的冲击不仅会引起自身的波动，而且会传递到其他行业指数，引起其它指数的波动；解释了冲击在各个行业指数之间传递的方向和大小，并显示了各个行业指数的波动特点。

本文采用了世代交迭的模型（Overlapping Generation Model）的分析框架，对资本市场（股票和信贷市场）的内在运行机制进行理论探讨。发现：一个没有套期保值机制（期权和期货和衍生工具）的以股票和信贷为资产增值和储蓄手段的资本市场具有内在的“脆弱性”（一旦原有市场均衡被打破，市场有持续下跌和持续上涨的倾向）。而在有套期保值机制的股票市场中，这种脆弱性仍然存在。因此政府应该对股票和信贷市场实行“双锁定”的政策。最后本文在模型的基础上对近期国有股减持使股市大跌的事件进行了分析。认为国有股减持只是在刺破了股市的泡沫时稍微矫枉过正，它只是下跌的“第一推动力”，并非股市大跌的根本原因。而股市内在的脆弱性才是此次大跌的根本原因。

农业保险与农业科技、农村金融并称为现代市场经济下农业可持续发展的三大支柱，但是由于农业自然风险的特质导致农业保险失灵现象的客观存在。政府干预是克服失灵的主要手段，但是应采取税收优惠、财政补贴、分保或再保以及外部监管的形式，以避免矫枉过正所引发的市场扭曲。此外，农业互助保险社等组织形态的变革以及农业保险产品的创新也是克服失灵的有效手段。

银行创建关系网的六大环节；银行要削减管理层使组织精简化；“完成交易至上论”渐趋失势；建立人际关系是重要职责；人际关系是发展?才的温床；搜集关系网成员的四大来源；管理人员不可离群孤立；建立外界工作关系网,效益更高；不断改进工作关系网长期功能；认识市场特色,了解客户特性。

Numerous studies have shown that the simple random walk model outperforms all structural and time series models in forecasting the conditional mean of exchange rate changes. However, in many important applications, such as risk management, forecasts of the probability distribution of exchange rate changes are often needed. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric portmanteau evaluation procedure for out-of-sample density forecast and provide a comprehensive empirical study on the out-of-sample performance of a wide variety of time series models in forecasting the intraday probability density of two major exchange rates－Euro/Dollar and Yen/Dollar. We find that some nonlinear time series models provide better density forecast than the simple random walk model, although they underperform in forecasting the conditional mean. For Euro/Dollar, it is important to model heavy tails through a Student-t innovation and asymmetric time-varying conditional volatility through a regime-switching GARCH model for both in-sample and out-of-sample performance; modeling conditional mean and serial dependence in higher order moments (e.g.,conditional skewness), although important for in-sample performance, does not help out-of-sample density forecast. For Yen/Dollar, it is also important to model heavy tails and volatility clustering, and the best density forecast model is a RiskMetrics model with a Student-t innovation. As a simple application, we Þnd that the models that provide good density forecast generally provide good forecast of Value-at-Risk.

The short history and market segmentation characteristic of China stock markets not surprisingly make the market indicators behave in certain way. In this paper, we tabulate the belief that the regulatory and instrumental policy changes in China structurally break the market indices. This is proven and break points are detected with a focus on Shanghai Stock Exchange in the first part of this paper. Whereas, the stochastic trend nature of the market remains even when the structural breakpoints are detected and after it is tested against various kinds of deterministic trends. It, to some extent, implies the efficiency of Shanghai market with regards to unpredictability. The second part of this paper dedicates to analyzing the interaction between A and B share markets. As a contrast to the past literature, the change in trading volume of B share market is found to be a much more sensitive leading indicator to the change in A share market, in the sense of Granger causality with a VAR fashion. This finding may further reveal the unbalanced investor structure in A and B share markets.

证券投资基金的绩效评价是一个复杂的多变量问题。本文提出运用因子分析方法寻找具有优良统计意义的综合指标的设想，并依此设想对沪深两市51家封闭式证券投资基金短期绩效进行实证研究。研究发现，收益因子得分应当成为基金评价的决定性指标。研究同时表明，由于我国封闭式基金缺乏足够的聚类特征，目前对基金进行分类评价并无必要。

本文的主要目的在于对造成中国封闭式基金折价交易现象的原因进行探讨，为此我们依据33只样本基金在2000年12月29日至2002年3月1日期间56周的数据资料，采用横截面回归模型对中国封闭式基金的规模因素、分配因素、业绩因素、噪声因素、复制风险、跟风操作因素以及持股结构因素等7个可能引致中国基金周平均折价率水平差异的因素进行了全面考察。我们的结论是，规模因素、分配因素、噪声因素以及基金持股结构因素是造成中国封闭式基金折价现象的主要原因，但这些因素对大型基金与小型基金具有不同的影响。在实证分析中，我们发现噪声因素的回归系数的符号与期望值相反。我们认为这种情况可能与中国基金市场的“博弈”行为有关，从而赋予了这一因素以新的含义。