• 详情 模拟明星基金的投资组合能否获得超额收益?
    作为基金业的亮点,明星基金用远超过市场其他投资者的收益吸引着A股市场投资者的注意力。明星基金经理的行为及其投资思路体现了A股市场基金行业的最高水平的投资决策,明星基金经理的投资心理和行为成为该基金表现的决定性因素。跟踪明星基金的股票投资组合能否体现他们的投资思路和决策,能否获得超额收益?本文根据以往基金的业绩和收益排名,选取2006年到2008年累积收益名列前茅的五只明星基金,根据它们在2009年和2010年两年期间每季度发布的季报的十大重仓股的分析,对明星基金进行被动模拟,从而形成以模拟最优明星基金的被动型基金组合。论文验证模拟明星基金的组合是否可以在A股市场上获得超额收益,并在模拟基金的过程当中尝试模拟年度和季度为代表的长、短期收益,以及仓位模拟,对各种策略进行对比,形成收益最大化策略。
  • 详情 利率双轨制与中国货币政策执行
    中国经济目前处于利率双轨制之下:银行体系中被管制的存贷款利率,和基本由市场决定的货币和债券市场利率共存。利率双轨制是中国渐进式改革的一部分,也是理解中国货币政策框架的关键。以存款利率上限为核心的利率双轨制决定了中国货币政策中数量与价格工具并存的特点,也意味着中国货币政策传导机制不同于发达国家。本文通过一个新的理论模型来解释利率双轨制下的中国货币政策传导机制,描述了不同情形下,货币政策目标如何通过各种政策工具传导至市场利率,并和信贷总规模一起实现货币政策对实体经济的调控。该理论模型的基本思路是:价格管制带来的扭曲需要由数量管制来纠正。实证模型结果显示:市场利率对基准存款利率调整最敏感,其次是存款准备金率的调整,公开市场操作在利率双轨制下效果则不太显著。
  • 详情 Foreign Investor Heterogeneity and Stock Liquidity Around the World
    This paper examines whether foreign investor heterogeneity plays a role in stock liquidity on a sample of 27,976 firms from 39 countries for the period from 2003 to 2009. Results show that foreign direct ownership is negatively, while foreign portfolio ownership is positively, associated with various measures of stock liquidity. Furthermore, liquidity also reduces more (less) in firms with larger foreign direct investment FDI (foreign portfolio investment, FPI) during the 2008 market downturn. As predicted by finance theory, foreign investors influence stock liquidity through both trading activity and information channels. Our findings also indicate that the presence of FDI investors improves firm valuation and operating performance even at the expense of an increase in the firm’s cost of capital, suggesting that the value-enhancing benefits from FDI investors’ monitoring efforts outweigh the liquidity costs and high adverse selection premium demanded by less informed investors. In contrast, the positive impacts of FPI ownership on firm performance, as previously documented in existing literature, becomes negative and also not robustly significant after controlling for liquidity.
  • 详情 市场群体的交易性条件反射及其量化方法
    本文通过我国股市的高频数据和相关性分析来研究市场群体的学习和心理行为。我们根据心理学中的操作性条件反射,首次提出一个交易性条件反射的概念,用成交量-价概率波方程中的成交量概率来计量市场群体交易性条件反射的强度。我们发现:总体来说,平均收益率与交易性条件反射强度变化之间具有显著的正相关性,市场群体对收益率的心理预期显著地表现了卖出的处置效应和买入的羊群行为,并且该“羊群”对价格趋势的心理预期明显地大于其反转的;第二,我们还发现在细分后的某一时期,它们之间具有显著的负相关性。我们用条件反射来解释他们的交易行为“异象”。
  • 详情 Market Crowd Trading Conditioning and Its Measurement
    In this paper, we study market crowd psychological behaviors in learning by correlation analysis, using every trading high frequency data in China stock market. We introduce a notion of trading conditioning in terms of operant conditioning in psychology and measure its intensity by accumulative trading volume probability in a time interval in the transaction price-volume probability wave equation that can describe market crowd coherence in their interacted trading behavior. We find that there is, in general, significant positive correlation between the rate of price volatility mean return and the change in the intensity of market crowd trading conditioning. They behave significantly disposition effect in stock selling and herd behavior in stock buying with expectation on return simultaneously. Specifically, “the herd” have significant stronger expectation on price momentum than its reversal. Second, there is also a significant negative correlation between them in a subdivided term; market crowd show buy-and-hold behavior when price rises steadily, and panic selling when it drops abruptly in depth. We explain both the puzzle of more peaked, heavily tailed, and clustered characteristics in return distribution by coherence and that of market crowd behavioral “anomalies” by trading conditioning in a unified transaction price-volume probability wave framework.
  • 详情 The Effects of Market Development on Controlling Shareholders' Participation in Rights Offerings
    We examine whether and how variations in the level of market development across regions in China affect controlling shareholders’ decisions to participate in Chinese public companies’ rights offerings. We find significant positive relations between measures of market development and controlling shareholders’ participation, as well as evidence that controlling shareholders’ participation benefits minority shareholders. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that better market development in an economy can provide de facto protection for minority shareholders by creating implicit incentives for controlling shareholders to act in the interests of minority shareholders. Because our study holds constant minority shareholders’ de jure rights, these results suggest a reputation channel exists for macro-level institutions to affect firm-level governance that is distinct from the direct channel of explicitly granting de jure rights to minority shareholders.
  • 详情 经理人市场、薪酬契约有效性与管理层侵占——基于国有企业经理人“59 岁现象”的研究
    基于我国国有企业经理人特有的“59 岁现象”,本文以非生产性支出为视角,研究了国有企业经理人退休前的侵占行为。研究发现,就全样本而言,本文未发现我国国有企业经理人退休前存在显著的侵占行为;分样本研究表明:(1)超额薪酬高低并非影响侵占动机的重要因素;(2)当经理人来自上市公司内部,或者薪酬契约缺乏弹性、股权激励强度不足时,面临退休的国有企业经理人侵占动机更强;(3)以经理人市场和薪酬契约的不同维度对国有企业样本进行二维分组,结果表明,当市场约束或激励机制存在双重不足时,面临退休的国有企业经理人侵占动机最强。本文的研究发现,不仅有助于丰富经理人激励的相关文献;同时,对我国国有企业经理人市场和薪酬制度建设亦具有重要的政策含义。
  • 详情 高管股票股权行权定价基准日前后公司信息披露行为研究——来自中国上市公司的证据
    本文分析了中国上市公司高管股票期权行权定价基准日前后的信息披露行为。基于对法规规定的行权定价基准日前后股价表现的分析发现,公司股价在定价基准日前后呈现“先抑后扬”的趋势。并且,定价基准日前上市公司披露坏消息的频率显著增加。进一步分析还发现,期权定价方法与总经理获得的期权比例对定价基准日前后公司的股价与信息披露行为有着显著的影响。当行权价格依据区间均值定价或公司高管获授的期权比例较高时,定价基准日前公司股价有更低的异常收益,且在公司高管获授的期权比例较高时定价基准日前对坏消息披露频率的增加程度也更为明显。本文研究结论表明上市公司的高管会在行权定价基准日前后择机地进行信息披露,以提高期权价值、降低行权成本。本文进一步证明了在信息不对称存在与法规不完善的情况下,受到法规中期权定价方法的驱动,会有新的代理成本产生。
  • 详情 交割地点选择权与期货价格
    通过构造投资组合策略,证明交割地点选择权会压低期货价格。在测算交割地点选择权内在价值的方法上,根据存在多个交割地点时,多头要求“现货溢价”弥补因交割地点不确定带来的额外风险的逻辑,提出把交割地点选择权转化成看涨期权,利用期权定价公式方便的推算交割地点选择权内在价值的方法。以2007年1月到2011年3月间大连商品交易所上市的豆粕期货为样本,实证结果证明交割地点选择权是造成豆粕期货市场出现“现货溢价”主要原因的假设,还证明将交割地点选择权转换成看涨期权,使用期权定价公式估计交割地点选择权价值的方法,所得结论贴合实际,具有较高实用性。
  • 详情 为什么陷入财务困境的企业总是难以做出正确的决定?
    本文基于Merton(1974)模型的理论分析,结合1999-2008年中国上市公司投资行为和重组公告的实证分析,证实:当面临财务困境风险时,由于债权人和股权人存在尖锐的利益冲突,公司会在财务困境的事前风险和事后风险之间进行权衡。研究发现:(1)财务困境会显著影响公司的投资行为,陷入财务困境的公司倾向于投资风险更高的项目来侵占债权人的利益;(2)当面临财务困境风险时,股东和债权人之间利益冲突的程度受公司资本结构的影响;(3)影响财务困境公司投资行为的资本结构因素,也会显著影响财务困境公司重组公告的市场反应。以上研究结论为理解财务困境公司,事前投资行为、资本结构、事后重组事件之间的关系提供了新的视角。